By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Happy “Takedown Tuesday” everyone! We’ve got an interesting slate heading our direction this evening. Quick note: the Draftkings main slate will consist of 10 games while the FanDuel main slate features eight games. Both will be starting up at the usual 7:05 ET, however, the DK slate has a couple of doubleheader game twos included (CWS @ KC and ARI @ LAD). For the most part, the eight mutually shared games will be the primary focus of this newsletter.

One thing many will notice right off the bat is the quality of starting pitchers we have to choose from today. For a decently-sized slate such as this one, the SP options are… not great. I believe we may even see a Coors Field pitcher become a fairly popular option today -- more on that below. Best of luck today, everyone! Let’s have some fun and make some cash while we’re at it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Not expecting many issues today.

HOU @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 15 mph.

CWS @ KC (7:10 ET, O/U TBD): (DH Game 2) Low-end chance of some light rain hitting the ballpark. It shouldn’t cause any major problems.

PIT @ CHC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Plenty of cloud coverage which could bring forth some light rain which they could probably just play through. Cooler temps in the 50s with winds blowing IN from center close to 10 mph. Pitchers deserve a bump here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.2k | @ BAL

A $9,000+ Jameson Taillon is a bit of a tough pill to swallow but his elevated salaries are simply a byproduct of the overall pitching pool not being very strong today. Taillon is certainly a solid starter, but even in the best of match-ups, he should cost around $8k to roster. So, even with imaginary DFS salaries, there is no escaping inflation, that’s tough.

Elevated price points aside, Taillon is in a nice spot today against Baltimore. The O’s have cut down on the strikeouts a bit, but they still provide a decently high 22.9% kRate vs. RHPs. They have an overall 25.1% kRate over the last week. Their 98 wRC+ vs. RHPs makes them essentially a league average offense as well. Taillon’s 2022 strikeout rate currently sits at 19.4% and he hasn’t thrown more than six Ks in a game this season. But he also has a quality 2.93 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, and a very low 2.3% Walk Rate. We haven’t seen Taillon throw more than 85 pitches in any of his six starts this season, but his most recent start was the one where he hit that 85 pitch count. He got into the 90s on his pitch count pretty regularly last season so, if he can do that this evening, that could offset some of the lower strikeout upside. The Yankees are also, by far, the heaviest favorites on the slate with -230 ML odds, and the Orioles have only a 3.4 implied run total. If Taillon can position himself for the win and go for about 20 DKFP/35 FDFP, that may be enough to land as an optimal pitcher on this slate.

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.1k | @ COL

Well, well, well… might we see a chalky Coors Field pitcher today? One could argue that Cobb is the most talented starting pitcher on this slate, but he obviously gets the downgrade due to the Coors Field effect. However, his DFS prices are quite affordable and he fits the bill when it comes to the kind of pitcher you’d want on the mound in this ballpark. Cobb is producing an extremely high 69.2% Ground Ball Rate this season next to only a 21.2% Fly Ball Rate and 28.3% HardHit%. To state the obvious, the fewer fly balls a pitcher gives up at Coors Field, the better. Cobb also hasn’t allowed a single-barreled ball this season. His kRate is way up this year so, if that trend continues, he possesses some of the best strikeout upside today given his slate-leading 31.5% kRate and 14.0% Swinging Strike Rate. Cobb’s 3.98 ERA may not be an excellent figure, but it would seem he has not had the best of luck this season (.365 BABIP against). His slate-best 2.26 xFIP and 2.52 SIERA are two metrics that are closer to what Cobb’s ERA *should* be. No pitcher is 100% safe, particularly when pitching at Coors. Cobb just played the Rockies in San Francisco during his last start and pitched very well (5.1 IP on 85 pitches, 3 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 6 K -- 23 DKFP/37 FDFP). I don’t usually love to roll out pitchers facing the same offense twice within a week, and the Coors effect of course adds some more trepidation. But given his ability to force a ton of ground balls along with a major increase in strikeouts this season, he’ll be worth a look at these mid/low DFS salaries. The Giants are also moderately strong -158 road favorites today.

JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.9k | @ CHC

We’re rolling with more of a match-up-driven play here since, before their nine-run explosion yesterday, the Cubs were riding in the front row of the struggle bus. Before yesterday’s game, the Cubs had posted a .199 AVG, .262 wOBA, 67 wRC+, and 28.2% kRate in the month of May. Those hitting numbers represented the second-worst averages in the MLB and the kRate was the highest in the league during that span. Brubaker has not pitched great overall this season (5.34 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP) but he has above average strikeout potential with a 24.3% kRate. While Brubaker has thrown as many as 94 pitches in a game this season, he is averaging only 72.8 pitches/gm over his last five starts. Perhaps with the Pirates bullpen being a bit overtaxed (33.0 IP in the last week, second-most), his leash will be on the longer side today. The Cubs are not likely to have a repeat performance like yesterday and if they turn back into the same offense that we saw across the first 15 days of this month, then Brubaker could certainly find some success in this game… especially if he can push for around 90 pitches. Wrigley Field is looking like a nice pitching environment today (mid-50s w/ 10 mph winds blowing in) and the Pirates are only slight +117 underdogs.

Also Consider:

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.2k | @ TOR

*Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD | DK: $8.7k, FD: N/A | vs. ARI

Keegan Thompson (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | vs. PIT

*DraftKings main slate only.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

New York Yankees vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

Writing up the Yankees is starting to border close to the level of laziness of saying “play hitters at Coors Field today.” The Yankees aren’t going to come through every day, but it hasn’t been very often when they’ve completely flopped. It’ll help to have that Aaron Judge guy back in the lineup today as well after he received a day off yesterday. On the season, the Yankees lead the MLB with a 125 wRC+ and over the last two weeks, they’ve kicked that up to a 141 wRC+. They match up with RHP Spenser Watkins today. Watkins has posted a poor 5.19 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, and 1.58 WHIP on the season. Hitters are making contact on 93.6% of Watkins’ pitches inside the zone and he’s allowing a lofty 42.9%% HardHit%. Giving up hard hits is not something you wanna do as a pitcher against this powerful Yankees lineup that leads the MLB with a 46.9% HardHit% this season. Since Watkins has not pitched more than five innings in any start this season, a decent but far from elite Orioles bullpen will come in to pitch around half the innings in this game. The Yankees have had plenty of success against Baltimore pitching this season, hitting .273 with a .356 wOBA, .194 ISO, 141 wRC+, and 12 total HRs.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson | Sneaky Bat: Joey Gallo

Los Angeles Angels vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Back to the well with an Angels stack? Why not?! The Angels haven’t been as effective against lefties as they have been against righties this season but they still rank out as a top 10 offense (vs. LHPs) with a .246 AVG (ranks 7th), .311 wOBA (9th), and 108 wRC+ (9th). They’re also hitting .280 against LHPs when they have RISP. Hearn enters this game off of two strong outings however, overall, he has not been great. On the season, he has posted a 1.64 WHIP and 5.26 ERA, though his 3.76 xFIP is notably lower. The statcast figures on Hearn are high across the board: 47.3% HardHit%, 16.2% Barrel%, 91.4 mph avg exit velocity, 5.97 xERA. He’s allowing a lot of RHBs on base with a 1.81 WHIP to that side of the plate, and he’s giving up more power to LHBs with a .371 wOBA, .292 ISO, and 2.84 HR/9 Rate. The Rangers bullpen is not terrible but they have had issues with walks (10.7% BB%) and home runs (14.3% HR/FB Rate). Overall, it’s another game where this Angels offense could very feasibly pop off.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Anthony Rendon | Sneaky Bat: Andrew Velasquez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners (LHBs Preferred) vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

The Mariners lefty bats will be in a favorable platoon spot today against Jose Berrios who has struggled mightily against that side of the plate. After facing 65 LHBs on the season, Berrios has allowed a .399 wOBA and .224 ISO with a 6.08 ERA, 6.08 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9 Rate. This Mariners offense is a little streaky but their 114 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 8th in the MLB and they do have the offensive talent to post some big innings. If Berrios doesn’t have his best stuff today, some of these Mariners bats could jump on him early.

Favorite SEA Bats: Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, JP Crawford | Sneaky Bat: Abraham Toro

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

2B/3B/SS Luis Urias | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tucker Davidson (LHP), ATL

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

C Joey Bart | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Thairo Estrada | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Eli White | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

2B/3B Tommy La Stella | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Hearn has only faced 27 left-handed hitters this season but he has already given up a couple of HRs to that side of the plate along with a .371 wOBA and .292 ISO. Across his career vs. LHBs, he has a 1.76 HR/9 Rate and 18.8% HR/FB Rate. Lefty-on-lefty plate appearances have worked out just fine for Ohtani who has a career .237 ISO and 27.7% HR/FB Rate against southpaw pitching. Ohtani is just 1-for-9 against Hearn but he comes into this game having smacked a pair of HRs and a pair of doubles in his last four games so ya have to love Ohtani’s home run chances against anyone when his bat is this hot. The Rangers bullpen also has a 14.3% HR/FB Rate, which is the highest in the MLB. If Ohtani doesn’t go yard off of Hearn, it could happen in the later innings against one of those Texas relievers. Ohtani has already hit three home runs in five games played at Globe Life Field this season, so I’d say it’s a ballpark he seems to like!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

JT Brubaker OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -140 (PointsBet) | 2.5 Units

Despite their offensively charged evening yesterday, the Cubs still hold a ton of potential strikeouts in their lineup. In the month of May, they still lead the MLB with a 28.4% kRate vs. RHPs. Brubaker has an above average 24.3% kRate on the season along with a solid 11.1% Swinging Strike Rate and a very nice 29.6% CSW% (called + swinging strike %).

As mentioned in the pitcher section above, the main issue with Brubaker (concerning his K upside) has been his pitch count, as he has averaged only 72.8 pitches/gm over his last five starts (but has thrown as many as 94 pitches in a single outing). With how much the Pirates have used their bullpen in the last week (33.0 IP, second-most IP in MLB), the prediction is that Brubaker’s leash will be fairly lengthy as long as he doesn’t get rocked hard early. Wrigley Field will set up as a favorable pitching environment today (temps in the mid-50s, 10 mph winds blowing in) so we can look for Brubaker to have a strong chance at pushing for 85-90 pitches, in which case he should sail past this 4.5 K prop.

Jesse Winker OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +130 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Winker is batting .293 in the month of May and seven of his 17 hits this month have gone for extra bases (five 2B, two HR). Winker has three multi-hit games this month as well. He has also hit for extra bases in three straight games heading into today’s match-up against Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. Against LHBs this season, Berrios has allowed a .310 AVG, .399 wOBA, and .224 ISO to go along with a 6.08 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9. Let’s ride the hot hitting streak that Winker has going for him and look for him to get multiple bases today in a favorable LHB vs. RHP match-up against Berrios. 

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!