Top MLB DFS Plays 5/17 | Preparing for a Fully Loaded Friday

Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

Between the NBA Conference Finals, PGA Championship, Stanley Cup Playoffs, and an all-encompassing 15 game MLB slate to kick off your Friday evening, if you’re a sports fan you have plenty to keep you occupied as we head into the weekend. We have a trio of aces on this docket of games, a few mid-range options with potential, and not a ton of stand out value towards the bottom of DFS pricing aside from a guy I will mention below. There are about a thousand ways you can attack this one tonight so, as always, you should just use this newsletter as merely a part of your arsenal of research. Utilize all of those primo LineStar tools, helpful advice from some of the sharp members in chat, and other easily accessible free resources across the web to create a strategy to deploy this evening!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛅

At the time of this writing I’m not seeing any major threat of rain in any of the forecasts but there will be some warmer temperatures in a few of these ballparks which could provide a bump to hitters and help the ball fly further. The following games will see temps in the 80's:

STL @ TEX: Mid 80's most of the game in one of the best hitter’s parks.

MIL @ ATL: Mid to low 80's throughout.

LAD @ CIN: Low 80's throughout.

CHC @ WAS: Bit of a pitcher’s dual here but the game starts off around 82°.

Also worth noting that the TOR @ CHW game will feature temps in the upper 40's but 10 mph winds blowing out to right makes things kind of a wash in terms of pitcher/hitter advantages.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Max Scherzer (DK: $11.1k, FD: $10.8k) | RHP | WAS vs. CHC

Jacob deGrom at Miami is in, by far, the best spot of any pitcher tonight. So if you’re only making a lineup or two, you may just want to pay up for him. Though it is only a $300 drop down to Scherzer on DraftKings, FanDuel pricing leaves you with an additional $1,200 in savings and this isn’t as bad of a spot as it would seem. I mentioned yesterday how much the Cubs offense is struggling lately, as they are now averaging just 2.9 runs/game in their last eight. Some of this may be attributed to the fact that Anthony Rizzo has been injured (back) and out of the lineup for the last four games. If he is forced to miss his fifth game tonight, give another bump to Max’s upside. Kris Bryant is the only Cubbie with a wOBA above .380 in the last two weeks and four guys are hitting for a .200 AVG or below -- and most of their at-bats have not come against the same caliber of pitcher as Scherzer. Max is also crushing at home this season. In 34.2 innings at home he has allowed a 2.86 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, .263 wOBA and 1.01 WHIP paired with a 34.1% kRate. Really, his only ‘hiccups’ this season have been versus lefties and, really, what lefties in this Cubs order really worry you (sans Rizzo)? Schwarber, Descalso, or Heyward? Eh, I don’t think so, considering the latter two aren’t even hitting above .170 in the last month and Schwarber is very prone to multi-strikeout games this season. The Nats will be -150 favorites on the night while the Cubs have a 3.4 implied run total.

Jordan Lyles (DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | PIT @ SD

First off, this recommendation is sort of site-dependent. This is a game with two really poor offenses and Lyles’ counterpart, Joey Lucchesi, is also firmly in play. Lucchesi would likely be the preferred option on FanDuel where he is really mispriced ($2,300 less than Lyles) but I like the potential here for the Pirate righty as more of a leverage play. Any time the Padres face a solid RHP, I’ll always have some interest in deploying the opposing pitcher against them in some lineups. Their order is just so stacked full of right-handed hitters (typically six or seven, depending on the pitcher). San Diego has a 27.1% kRate over the last two weeks and there are four guys with kRates at 32% or above (Reyes, Garcia, Renfroe, and Myers). Lyles has been excellent against RHBs this season, allowing just a .135 AVG, .203 wOBA, 0.84 WHIP and has given up just one home run in 22.2 innings. Lyles’ 23.2% kRate isn’t extremely high but I could see upwards of eight or nine strikeout opportunities here and he has a nice park to pitch in, as Petco Park ranks as the No. 2 most pitcher-friendly environment.

Cole Irvin (DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k) | LHP | PHI vs. COL

One thing this slate isn’t lacking: pitchers named “Cole.” Irvin is the value guy I alluded to in the intro. He flashed some solid stuff in his winning MLB debut effort against the Royals after tossing 93 pitches across seven innings allowing one run, five hits, and a walk to go with a handful of strikeouts. Last year, across 161.1 innings at the triple-A level, Irvin strung together a very strong 14-4 record after posting a 2.57 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and .225 opponent batting average. He’s not a high strikeout guy, with a minor league kRate just under 20%, but he’s more of an “innings eater” that limits base runners (5.4% Walk Rate) and doesn’t give up many deep shots (0.61 HR/9). The Rockies do obviously have a couple of really dangerous righties that could turn Irvin’s second MLB start into a day to forget. But if he holds guys like Story and Arenado in check then he’ll have some real potential against Colorado who, when playing away from Coors Field against LHPs, have just a .235 AVG, .293 wOBA, .277 OBP, and a massive 33.5% kRate. Irvin’s skill-set could match up well in this spot if you’re willing to inherit some risk.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Oakland Athletics vs. Daniel Norris (LHP - Detroit Tigers)

Expected Ownership: Medium

If you’re looking to take one of the night’s trio of aces, you’re going to need some affordable bats. Oakland, coming off of a 17 run performance, has some nice options for you as they’ll get to face lefty Daniel Norris and a terrible Tigers bullpen. Norris has looked solid at times thus far in the season but nothing like a pitcher we should be afraid of. He’s allowing a .287 AVG and .336 wOBA to go with a 4.74 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP, and just a 17.8% kRate. In four of his five starts, he has only pitched five innings so. Once he is off the mound, the A’s will get a Detroit bullpen that has been awful. In the last two weeks they have a 7.06 ERA, 5.30 SIERA, 15% kRate, 1.79 WHIP, and a 2.45 HR/9 Rate. Stephen Piscotty (.449 wOBA, .302 ISO, .417 OBP vs. LHP) has hit southpaws very well this season. I’d also consider an underpriced Khris Davis (.405 wOBA, .439 ISO vs. LHP) and, if he is in the lineup, Mark Canha (.364 wOBA, .271 ISO) is also very affordable.

Atlanta Braves vs. Jhoulys Chacin (RHP - Milwaukee Brewers)

Expected Ownership: Medium/Low

I’m going to double down on the Braves for a second consecutive day as Chacin’s numbers suffer on the road and there will be some warm weather in Atlanta to help carry some fly balls a bit further. When pitching away from Miller Park, Chacin has a 6.00 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, and just a 16.4% kRate. This Braves team has nearly a .400 OBP against Chacin in 72 at-bats as well. Once again, I think you can go back to Freddie Freeman (.395 wOBA, .200 ISO, .415 OBP vs. RHP), Nick Markakis (.401 wOBA, .204 ISO, .429 OBP vs. RHP), and Brian McCann (.398 wOBA, .203 ISO, .414 OBP vs. RHP). Austin Riley has also made a splash across his first two MLB starts and could be worth consideration as well if he’s back in the lineup.

Cleveland Indians vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Cleveland is another team where you should be able to find more affordable batters who will be in a nice situation against a poor starter and weak bullpen. Bundy has given up 11 home runs already this season in 40.2 innings (2.43 HR/9) and the Orioles bullpen leads the league with the most home runs allowed, 37 in 174.2 innings (1.91 HR/9). Those 37 homers allowed are six more than the next closest relief staff (Detroit). In an attempt to find those bombs that Baltimore will inevitably give up, I’ll pretty much be disregarding R/L splits and instead, simply look for some Cleveland batters that have shown the most power, specifically over the last month. The Indians with the highest ISO’s in the last month include: Jordan Luplow (.359 ISO), Roberto Perez (.222 ISO), and Francisco Lindor (.152 ISO).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Joc Pederson (DK: $5k, FD: $3.1k) | OF | vs. RHP Anthony DeSclafani

Oof, DraftKings isn’t too kind with the Joc pricing but that will most certainly lead to low ownership. Meanwhile, he could be a steal at his FanDuel price (I’m assuming he leads off tonight). It’s pretty well known that Pederson mashes righties and all 13 of his homers have come against them this season resulting in a monstrous .444 ISO split. Throw in DeSclafani’s poor splits against LHBs (.398 wOBA, .243 ISO) mixed with 80+ degree temperatures in Cincy and that will make Pederson my home run call of the evening. Something I think I should make more noteworthy in these articles is BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and point out when a batter (or pitcher) seems to be getting unlucky with where their hits are ending up. Pederson appears to be getting very unlucky this season with a .156 BABIP vs. RHPs. Across his career against RHPs, he has a .263 BABIP -- over a hundred points higher than his current average -- so expect positive regression soon, perhaps tonight. Note that DeSclafani has allowed a massive .367 BABIP to left-handed hitters this season.

Nick Senzel (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.8k) | OF | vs. LHP Rich Hill

Rich Hill has really looked rough through his first three starts of the season and that 39-year-old arm might be wearing down. It’s only an 11 inning sample size but Hill has been throttled by righties after allowing a .333 AVG, .432 wOBA, .356 ISO and five homers (that’s a 4.09 HR/9 Rate!). Unless he’s completely cooked, he should improve his numbers. For now, I’ll look to attack him with opposing hitters. It’s a small sample size but the rookie Senzel has been excellent versus LHPs with a .449 wOBA and .389 ISO. In all likelihood he’ll continue to serve as the Reds lead-off man and, as I mentioned with Pederson, will also have some warm weather to bat in out in Cincinnati.

CJ Cron (DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k) | 1B | vs. LHP Marco Gonzales

Man, Cron was on my short list of ‘one-off’ hitters that I was going to mention yesterday but for whatever reason, he didn’t make the final cut. So, naturally, he goes 4-for-5 with a homer. Hopefully I don’t end up being “a day late and a dollar short” by mentioning him now. In his last 23 plate appearances against lefties, he has a massive .400 AVG, .527 wOBA, and .500 ISO with three bombs. Gonzales hasn’t been shelled too much this season but all five of his home runs allowed have come from righties to go along with a .138 ISO surrendered. Cron has shown enough power against southpaws lately to fully justify rolling him out as an upside value bat tonight.

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