Top MLB DFS Plays 5/17 | Dialing in on a Monday

May 17, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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A mid-sized eight game main slate kicks off the workweek this evening. Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish headline the pitching landscape today but there are a number of other intriguing hurlers taking the mound which I feel could really post up some surprisingly strong fantasy scores. With that said, in general, it does feel like pitchers have the upper hand over offenses this evening as only four of the slate’s 16 teams possess an implied run total of 4.7 runs or higher -- only two games have a total above 8.0 runs. Finding the correct offenses that happen to pop off is always the toughest part of MLB DFS but it’s what ya have to do in order to take down the big money. With obvious offensive stacks in short supply, let’s see if we can dig in, get a little lucky, and strike some gold today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Good news: no postponement threats on this slate.

WAS @ CHC: Winds blowing IN at 10 mph with temps in the upper 50s. More beneficial conditions for pitchers rather than hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP) | DK: $10.9k, FD: $12.3k | @ TEX

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.1k | vs. COL

Neither of these guys needs much introduction. They’re both top options, especially in cash games. If you can find a couple of value bats that you like, it shouldn’t be a major headache trying to build around either Cole or Darvish.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k | vs. DET

Kikuchi’s final stat line will be determined by what Detroit offense shows up today. If it’s the one we’ve seen most of the season, Kikuchi should have an excellent day. This year against LHPs, Detroit ranks dead last in baseball with a putrid 55 wRC+, .247 wOBA, and .067 ISO while striking out 33.8% of the time. However, over the last couple of weeks, Detroit has performed as a slightly above average offense against lefties: 98 wRC+ (ranks 14th), .309 wOBA (14th), .065 ISO (29th), with a 26.8% kRate (9th highest). Still not amazing production, obviously, but they’ve been good enough to where they could knock a pitcher like Kikuchi around. To his credit, Kikuchi has been pretty lights out over his last three starts (20.1 IP) -- in that span, he has posted a 2.66 ERA, 2.02 xFIP, 33.3% kRate, and has allowed just a .169 AVG, .230 wOBA, and 23.9% HardHit%. I’d lean more on his over on DraftKings where his $7,800 salary could provide strong value and it wouldn’t be all that difficult to utilize him as your SP2 paired with one of the aforementioned studs (or Walker Buehler).

Jon Gray (RHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.8k | @ SD

Gray is more of a leverage option today in GPPs but he is one of the pitchers who I believe could surprise us by the time the day is done. Oddly enough, all of his best results this season have come at home in Coors Field where he has started six of his eight games. Petco Park is clearly a massive upgrade for pitchers in comparison to Coors, so maybe he can take advantage of that this evening. The Padres are rarely going to be a team I’d look to target with pitching but their offense is missing a number of routine starters and vital offensive pieces due to COVID reasons. Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, and Jorge Mateo are all riding the COVID-19 IL and shouldn’t be available for a few more games. On the year, Gray has put up a strong 2.92 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, and has produced a 53.7% Ground Ball Rate. The strikeouts haven’t been coming in droves (22.9% kRate) but there is a decent chance he can eat up to six or seven innings and push for 25 DKFP/45 FDFP.

Adbert Alzolay (RHP) | DK: $8.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. WAS

Not overly in love with his price on DK (though I do still have some moderate interest). However, if you want pretty much ALL the big bats your heart desires on FanDuel, Alzolay’s $6,800 price tag makes him an intriguing value option and a leverage pivot away from the Cole/Darvish lineups. Through six starts (32.0 IP) this season, Alzolay is rocking a respectable 3.36 xFIP and an excellent 0.88 WHIP while striking out 29.3% of hitters and producing a 14.3% SwStr%. He’ll also get some fairly positive pitching weather on the mound at Wrigley Field where cool temps and 10 mph winds should help keep some hard hit fly balls inside the park. The Nationals are also pinned with just a 3.6 implied run total today and the Cubs come in as -158 favorites.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ The Yankees (vs. RHP Jordan Lyles) and White Sox (vs. LHP J.A. Happ) stand out as two premium stacks to target today.

Seattle Mariners vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

The Mariners have been a top ten offense versus righties over the last two weeks (115 wRC+, ranks 8th) and their team .218 ISO in that span (vs. RHPs) tops the charts. Mize is still getting his feet wet in the MLB but he has held it together in the majority of his starts on the season -- however, his 4.75 xFIP is far from impressive. Mize is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league, so if Seattle gets to Mize and forces him out after four or five innings, they’ll get plenty of opportunities against some sub-par relief arms. With the addition of the rookie and likely future stud, Jarred Kelenic, the top half of this Seattle order provides some significant upside with other hitters like Mitch Hanger and Kyle Seager, who seems to be finding his power as of late.

Minnesota Twins vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

This White Sox/Twins game appears to have the best chance at producing a high scoring atmosphere with a slate-high 9.5 O/U. I could see stacking both sides as a reasonable option here. Dallas Keuchel has posted a slate-worst 64.2% LOB% (Left on Base%) this season and the Twins are hitting .265 (ranks 7th) with a .336 wOBA (ranks 9th) when they have runners on. The current Twins roster also possesses a solid .326 wOBA against Keuchel in 170 plate appearances so there’s some quality BvP potential going here as well. The White Sox do have a strong bullpen but Minnesota could certainly get some runs on the board before Keuchel checks out.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Los Angeles Angels vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

Unless they’re in a super obvious spot, LA Angels not named Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani typically don’t garner much ownership. Despite holding a high 4.9 implied run total, I still don’t see much love going their way today (aside towards the two studs) so I’d look for the majority of these bats to come in at single-digit ownership. The rookie Sam Hentges only has 13.2 IP to his name and will be making his second career start -- first ever MLB start on the road. The Angels have been considerably better at home this season where they average 5.24 runs/gm and have a 117 wRC+ (6th best). Compare that to their away numbers: 3.82 runs/gm and 93 wRC+ (ranks 15th).

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

Anderson is simply one of the best pure hitters in baseball and he’s rarely going to deliver a goose egg when you roster him in lineups. He’s hitting .330 on the year with a 142 wRC+ and has had no trouble with JA Happ throughout his career. Anderson is 11-for-19 (.579) against Happ with a .660 wOBA and a pair of homers. Strong one-off option if you’re not looking to go full on White Sox stack.

3B/SS Gio Urshela | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

The Yankees clean-up man should have strong potential for a huge game today when facing off with Jordan Lyles. Gio is hitting .310 versus righties this season with a .390 wOBA & .230 ISO. Lyles has shown some poor reverse splits on the year while allowing a .309 AVG, .388 wOBA, and.277 ISO to RHBs with a 2.66 HR/9 Rate. Urshela’s ceiling games have been pretty few and far between this year but tonight could be one of those days where he pops off in the box score.

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Grossman has been a major key to the recent Detroit offensive surge. Since May 4th (11 games), Grossman is batting hitting .364 with a .463 OBP and 211 wRC+. He has essentially been a top 10 player in all of baseball in that specific time window. If he can keep it going against Kikuchi and the Mariners tonight, ya gotta like him at these affordable salaries.

Value Bats to Consider

2B/3B/SS Jonathan Villar | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

OF Clint Frazier | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

OF Jarred Kelenic | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

2B/OF Dylan Moore | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. J.A. Happ (LHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Luke Voit | DK: $5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

Voit has now started five games and recorded 19 at-bats this season. No homers yet, but I get the feeling that the rust is starting to shake off after going 4-for-9 over his last two games. Voit is coming off of a power-driven season where he mashed 22 home runs in just 56 games -- 16 of those came against RHPs. I’ve mentioned above how Lyles is exhibiting some poor reverse splits this season, especially in the power/home run department. I’ll look for Voit to get on the board with his first home run of the 2021 season tonight.

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