By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Good afternoon to you fine folks! I hope the weekend treated you well and that you’re ready to lock in for another stretch of some MLB DFS action! Monday sets us up with a robust 11-game main slate. As far as the pitcher pool goes, it feels pretty weak for an 11-gamer but that often means more offenses will be in quality spots. Coors Field is back in play as well and eight teams currently possess an implied run total of at least 4.5 runs, which is quite high by this season’s standards up to this point. There will be some weather concerns to keep an eye on as well so let’s not waste any more time and get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

The three main spots to keep an eye on today include NYY @ BAL, HOU @ BOS, and STL @ NYM. Fortunately, those three games all begin at the very start of the evening, so be sure to run a final forecast check once we get closer to around 7:00 ET.

NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Rain could linger into the start of this game but looks to be all clear afterward. Potential for a late start but that should be where the weather concerns end. There will also be some 10-15 mph winds blowing, but it seems that it could be in several directions so can’t give a definitive boost to either hitters or pitchers.

HOU @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Around a 20-35% chance of storms rolling over the ballpark all throughout this game. The current feeling is that a delay is quite possible, but they could likely end up getting the game in as long as the storms move out fairly quickly. Starting pitchers are riskier but I won’t be fading the bats at this time. Winds blowing OUT to left near 15 mph provide bats with an additional boost.

STL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): The biggest PPD risk looks like it will reside in this game. There is about a 60% chance of storms affecting the area of Citi Field, though those chances do decline towards 9 pm ET. Perhaps they play through some rain or perhaps a lengthy 'delay and play' is in order. And a postponement can’t be ruled out. Also, 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center. Since 10 other games are on the docket, I believe I’m going to choose not to mention any players from this game for this newsletter. But, again, check the forecast here closer to lock to see what things are looking like.

Update: STL @ NYM has been postponed.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ATL

As mentioned in the intro, the pitcher player pool leaves a bit to be desired today. But Peralta does appear to possess the best raw strikeout upside on the slate. Along with his sharp 3.11 xFIP, he’s rocking a 30.6% kRate with a 12.8% Swinging Strike Rate on the season. Atlanta has some dangerous hitters throughout their lineup but it’s also filled with plenty of guys who love to strike out. The current projected lineup features seven hitters who have at least a 21.6% kRate vs. RHPs, including three with a >31% kRate. Overall, Atlanta’s 25% kRate vs. RHPs is the 5th highest in the MLB. They’re also going to be on the road today, where they have averaged only 3.43 runs/gm this season (ranks 23rd). Over his career, Peralta’s 3.39 ERA at home is over a run lower than his 4.46 ERA on the road. He’s also limited baserunners with a career 1.04 WHIP at home (1.27 WHIP on the road). He’s not gonna be cheap but there’s solid potential for him to score around 25 DKFP/45 FDFP. Also, no Acuna in the lineup for the Braves, so I’m sure Peralta won’t mind that.

Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k | @ TEX

Better bargain on DraftKings. Syndergaard’s 17.5% kRate on the season is not great and normally that’s a low enough figure for a pitcher to where I wouldn’t throw much DFS consideration their way. However, he is coming off of a season-high seven strikeouts in his last game (vs. TB), and his 12.0% Swinging Strike Rate should start leading to some positive strikeout regression. Typically, you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% and that’s about where their overall kRate is going to end up. So, Syndergaard starts to look like a much more appealing option if we can start to expect him to produce around a 24% kRate. Texas is also just bad against righties. Their 81 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season ranks them 28th, ahead of only the Tigers and Athletics. They’re hitting for only a .211 AVG and .271 wOBA as well. With Syndergaard throwing for 100 pitches and 97 pitches in his last two outings, I’d look for him to pitcher fairly deep into this game (6.0+ IP) while racking up about a strikeout per inning. The Angels are moderate -140 road favorites while the Rangers have a 3.6 implied run total, the third-lowest on the slate.

Wade Miley (LHP), CHC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.7k | vs. CHC

This is purely a price-driven play, as most can probably already assume. Miley did not look great in his 2022 debut against the Padres last Wednesday, but that is a team that hits lefties well (117 wRC+, ranks 6th). So, perhaps he shook off enough rust and will be able to handle an easier Pirates opponent in his second start. The Pirates are not necessarily bad against lefties and their 96 wRC+ puts them right in the middle of the pack at 17th. They also don’t strike out a ton (20.9% kRate vs. LHPs) and Miley is not a huge strikeout pitcher, to begin with (18.1% kRate last season). But, for these salaries, we just need five solid innings out of him where he limits damage and puts himself in a position to pick up the win. The Cubs are solid -155 home favorites today while the Pirates possess a fairly low 3.9 implied run total. If you want to get up to a bunch of Coors bats or some other big hitters, utilizing Miley (preferably on DK as an SP2) would be one way to free up the salary to do just that.

Also Consider:

Luis Severino (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.1k | @ BAL

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

Note: Looks like DraftKings failed to give the Giants bats the Coors Field salary bump considering the most expensive hitter is only $4,500. Uber Giants chalk incoming.

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

The Angels bats that you’d likely want when creating an LAA stack won’t come cheap, so they look like a nice leverage option today. It seems like they flop nearly every time I highlight them as a stack option, but hopefully, they buck that trend today. Jon Gray has posted a lackluster 5.51 ERA through four starts this season, though his 3.66 xFIP is not terrible so he has been getting a bit unlucky. Regardless, he’s also allowing a fair amount of hard contact along with plenty of fly balls. Gray also hasn’t thrown more than 77 pitches in any game this season so that could lead to some extra work from a below-average Texas bullpen. Over the last week, the Angels have a .292 AVG vs. RHPs alongside a .380 wOBA, .257 ISO (!!!), and 158 wRC+. Also, the Angels are on the road today and they’ve been one of the better road offenses in baseball, averaging 5.29 runs/gm (ranks 2nd).

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward | Sneaky Bat: Brandon Marsh

Minnesota Twins vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

Logue has pitched his way to a 1.35 ERA across 13.1 IP this season and he held this Minnesota team to only two runs on five hits across five innings just 10 days ago. But there is nothing special about Logue’s 4.12 xFIP and he allows plenty of fly balls (53.8% FB%) along with a 41% HardHit% and12.8% Barrel%. This is also a guy who posted a 5.63 ERA, 6.67 xFIP, and 2.81 HR/9 Rate in four starts at the Triple-A level this season. I don’t believe it’ll take long before an MLB offense figures him out. And, in Minnesota’s case, they just saw his stuff not too long ago. The Twins have also been a top five offense versus lefties this season -- their 119 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks fourth in the MLB. There’s no reason to be scared of Oakland’s mediocre bullpen either.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Gio Urshela, Kyle Garlick | Sneaky Bat: Jose Miranda

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

The Brew Crew returns home today following a nine-game road trip. They have been deadly at home this season where they average a league best 6.00 runs/gm and account for a 134 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 3rd). Ian Anderson has not had his best stuff up to this point and he has posted a 4.20 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, and 1.40 WHIP through six starts. Those numbers rank him pretty firmly in the bottom half of today’s starters. The Atlanta bullpen has had some struggles at times in recent weeks as well. And I can tell you from watching about every inning of Braves baseball this season that if Milwaukee gets out to a three or four-run lead, there are a couple of gas cans out of the bullpen that will probably come in to pitch. Brewers bats are also absurdly expensive on DK, so I don’t see many people going here.

Favorite MIL Bats: Kolten Wong, Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich | Sneaky Bat: Jace Peterson

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

OF Mike Trout | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dillon Peters (LHP), PIT

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CHC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF LaMonte Wade Jr. | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

2B/3B Abraham Toro | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

OF Luis Gonzalez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

1B Carlos Santana | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

C Yan Gomes | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Dillon Peters (LHP), PIT

OF Travis Demeritte | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Don’t shame me for going the Coors Field route today. After absolutely mashing over the first couple of weeks of the season, Pederson missed a few games due to injury and hit a bit of a slump in the month of May. He ended the slump yesterday with a two-run dinger and will not travel to the king of hitter’s ballparks where he will face a struggling Antonio Senzatela (4.88 xFIP, 1.95 WHIP, .426 opp wOBA). While he is allowing a ton of hits, Senzatela has done well to keep the ball inside the park, allowing only two HRs across 27.2 IP this season (0.65 HR/9). But hitters are creating contact on 91.9% of pitches that Senzatela throws in the zone and Pederson has created a .299 ISO against RHPs this season. All seven of Pederson’s HRs this season have come against RHPs (29.2% HR/FB Rate) and if he gets the barrel on the ball today, it’s probably going out of the park.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Giancarlo Stanton OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +130 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

While he did go 0-for-4 yesterday, Stanton is still swinging a white hot bat so, again, just ride the wave. Stanton has hit for multiple bases in five of his last seven games. He faces O’s right-hander Kyle Bradish, who has accumulated a 6.10 ERA, .371 opp wOBA, and a 2.61 HR/9 Rate vs. RHBs this season. I’m liking the value on this o1.5 bases prop for Stanton at these +130 odds. That just looks like some really solid value.

Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 RBI | +135 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

Devers is riding a nine-game hit streak and, in that span, he has recorded an RBI in five games. He’ll square up with RHP Jake Odorizzi who has a 6.02 xFIP against LHBs this season. The Red Sox have a high 4.8 implied run total today and with near 15 mph winds blowing out at Fenway, Devers could easily just go yard and account for his own run batted in. This is another prop with some nice value at +135.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!