Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 No "On Deck" Podcasts on Thursdays

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Thursdays often bring us divided slates with fewer evening games which are staggered apart. This main slate is no different and do make note that contests will lock at 6:40 pm ET! The bookies are implying that any team has a reasonable path to a victory tonight, as the worst odds to win belong to the Chicago Cubs, who are just +125 underdogs. This pretty much indicates that pitching decisions are going to be a bit tricky in general. Let’s get a quick look at potential weather factors and then slide right into some appealing DFS plays as I try not to get distracted by PGA Championship coverage (no one cares but Tommy Fleetwood is my pick to take it down)!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Report

TOR @ CHW: Rain will be in the area around game time and later into the evening but it should be pretty light and playable if it affects the stadium at all. A bit on the warmer side, by Chicago’s standards, with temps in the mid-70s which could help hitters. Keep an eye on the 10+ mph crosswinds to be expected in case they happen to project to shift towards the outfield.

STL @ ATL: Temps will be around 80 degrees for much of this game giving a slight bump to hitters.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.3k) | RHP | CIN vs. CHC

Castillo is the clear ace of the evening but the primary concern will be if we can trust him against the Cubs. The Cubs are the number three offense in baseball, averaging 5.35 runs/game. However, they’ve been pretty feast or famine all year and seem to be in a bit of a slump. Over their last seven games, they’re averaging just three runs/game. If they’re looking to break out of said slumpage, a match-up with Luis Castillo wouldn’t seem to be the best opportunity to do so. Castillo has been pretty damn dominant this season. Batters have just a .166 AVG, .236 wOBA against him and he is posting a 31.8% kRate, 1.76 ERA, 3.48 SIERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. He’s typically a better pitcher at home and through 32.2 home innings pitched this year, that is holding true. When he takes the mound at Great American Ball Park, he has allowed only a .157 AVG, .201 wOBA, 30% kRate, 1.65 ERA, and 0.83 WHIP. Very stout numbers. There are some tough outs in this Chicago lineup but there is some strikeout upside as well, with several players with a 25% kRate or above against RHPs. This includes a couple at-bats from opposing pitcher Jose Quintana (58% kRate), Javy Baez (30% kRate), Kyle Schwarber (25% kRate), and Wilson Contreras (25% kRate). The Reds will be -135 favorites and the Cubs will have a 3.9 implied run total.

Eric Lauer (DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.7k) | LHP | SD vs. PIT

Lauer hasn’t been all that great but he’s cheap, at home, and gets perhaps the best match-up of the day. The Pirates offense has been pretty dreadful, especially against lefty pitchers: .234 AVG, .266 wOBA, .091 ISO, .282 OBP, 64 wRC+ with a 28.2% kRate. Prior to getting predictably blown up in his last game at Coors Field, Lauer had allowed just two earned runs in each of his previous three starts. He has also shown reasonably better home splits since his professional career started last year. In 79.2 career innings at the pitcher friendly Petco Park, he has allowed a .274 AVG, .332 wOBA, 1.38 WHIP, and an 18.1% kRate. Very mundane numbers, but not bad, and the Pirates have made several average pitchers look good this year. He’s got a five pitch arsenal to throw at Pittsburgh and has the ability to get 15-18 outs with a handful of strikeouts along the way and a shot at a win. The Padres are -128 favorites and the Pirates have the lowest offensive expectations of the day with 3.4 implied runs.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Atlanta Braves (LHBs) vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP - St. Louis Cardinals)

Expected Ownership: Medium

A Braves stack looks promising today, particularly with the guys who will bat on the left side of the plate. Wainwright has had extreme splits thus far in the season and against LHBs he is allowing a .320 AVG, .406 wOBA, .307 ISO, 1.75 WHIP, 46.2% Hard Contact and has just a 14.3% kRate. Awful! Five of his seven home runs allowed have been to lefties in 14 fewer batters faced, which results in a 2.55 HR/9 rating. In a park that also favors left-handed hitting, you gotta love the upside that Freddie Freeman (.377 wOBA, .181 ISO, .401 OBP) brings along with Nick Markakis (.392 wOBA, .200 ISO, .419 OBP) and Brian McCann (.403 wOBA, .211 ISO, .411 OBP).

Seattle Mariners vs. Michael Pineda (RHP - Minnesota Twins)

Expected Ownership: Low/Medium

I’ve got plenty of interest in both sides of this one but Seattle just has so much upside with their power bats and Pineda is a guy that gives up plenty of hard contact. Pineda’s 45% Hard Contact Rate and 43.4% Fly Ball Rate are the highest on the slate and has resulted in a 17.9% HR/FB Rate. He is also showing pretty poor reverse splits this season. Against RHBs, he is surrendering a .321 AVG, .402 wOBA, and .275 ISO. The Mariners have five batters in the lineup with >.260 ISOs versus RHPs this season (100 minimum plate appearances). My favorite overall options would be Daniel Vogelbach (.434 wOBA, .370 ISO, .414 OBP), Edwin Encarnacion (.370 wOBA, .281 ISO), and Omar Narvaez (.378 wOBA, .206 ISO).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Eugenio Suarez (DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k) | 3B - CIN | vs. LHP Jose Quintana

The baseball might as well be the size of a beach ball for Suarez lately… but I’m guessing those are harder to hit home runs with, but you get the idea. Since May 4th (11 games) he has posted a .362 AVG, .513 wOBA, .489 ISO with six bombs along the way on an outrageous 58.1% Hard Contact Rate. His home splits and LHP splits are extremely positive as well and he’ll meet both of those criteria today. Quintana is certainly a quality pitcher but if you’re going to attack him, it’s best to do so with RHBs, which all six of his home runs given up have come from. In the NL, Suarez is trailing only Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich in HRs and he’ll be in search of his 14th dinger of the season tonight.

Eric Sogard (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k) | 2B/SS - TOR | vs. RHP Dylan Covey

Sogard should be in the lead-off spot this evening, as the White Sox will be deploying RHP Dylan Covey. Against righties, Sogard has a .415 wOBA and .246 ISO while striking out just 7.4% of the time. Covey may only be on the mound for about four innings but the White Sox bullpen has been pretty below average, so I’d still like Sogard’s potential throughout this contest. Pairing him with the hype that is Vlad Guerrero Jr. could make for an interesting little affordable two-man stack.

Matt Carpenter (DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k - STL | 1B/3B | vs. LHP Julio Teheran

It’s no secret that Teheran has struggled against lefties in his career and that trend continues this season as he is allowing a .334 wOBA, .370 OBP, 1.70 WHIP, and 13.9% Walk Rate this season. Over the last couple of weeks, Carpenter hasn’t shown the consistency you would like to see from a lead-off man but the match-up and positive hitting environment negates some of my concern. Also, sure it is a small sample size, but it’s worth noting that Carpenter is 7 of 14 against Teheran in his career with two home runs.

Miguel Sano (DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k) | 3B/OF - MIN | vs. RHP Erik Swanson

Sano was reinstated from the injured list yesterday and has a shot at landing in the starting lineup tonight, which would make for his season debut. If he does end up starting, he’s a really cheap bat with some potential against a very ‘iffy’ rookie starter, Erik Swanson. Sano had some power against righties last season with a .204 ISO and nine home runs on 47.8% Hard Contact. He hit for a .316 average with a pair of homers in his ten rehab starts in the minor league recently so he could be ready to hit the ground running if called upon.

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