Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/15 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Life threw a curveball at me today and cut down the time I had to write, so today’s newsletter is a bit delayed and on the abbreviated side. Eight games to look over tonight! There’s no major impactful weather to speak of so let’s dive right in!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander (DK: $11k, FD: $12k) | RHP | HOU @ DET

No one is ever a lock in MLB DFS but Verlander versus the Tigers seems about as close as you could get. How often do you see a -380 favorite these days in baseball? Not often. With a 75 wRC+, Detroit is the fourth worst offense against righties. They’re also posting just under a 26% kRate and have the second highest SwStr% at 12.7%. JV has a 30.6% kRate and 13.9% SwStr%. The only cause for concern is Verlander's reverse splits against righties has been pretty drastic. Against righties, which Detroit is full of, he has just a 21% kRate paired with a 4.70 xFIP. Regardless, he’s a very safe play today but may be worth lowering exposure to in GPPs.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k) | LHP | BOS vs. COL

I’m looking to attack the Rockies away from Coors Field here. Against lefties on the road, Colorado has just a .286 wOBA, 76 wRC+, and a 33.3% kRate. Rodriguez is a reverse splits pitcher, so he should be able to limit production from the more dangerous Colorado righties. He stands out as a value on both sites tonight.

Jalen Beeks (DK: $7.6k, FD: $5.5k) | LHP | TB @ MIA

Beeks will serve as the bulk “innings eater” today behind Ryne Stanek and FanDuel has yet to account for this considering Beeks is still minimum salary. If you want to go crazy on bats today, Beeks is your guy considering he is up against a terrible Miami offense averaging a league worst 2.81 runs/game. Versus LHPs this season, the Marlins have only a .263 wOBA, .097 ISO, and a 65 wRC+. Across his last three appearances, in 14.2 IP Beeks has allowed just one run on six hits while striking out 16 batters. Great potential value here.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Atlanta Braves vs. Michael Wacha (RHP - STL)

After getting throttled 14-3 last night, the Braves will look to get some quick revenge against Wacha. He is allowing a ton of base runners aboard with a slate-worst 1.65 WHIP paired with an ugly 5.16 SIERA. He’s also walking nearly five and a half batters per nine innings. The Braves are pretty average against RHP (.323 wOBA, .169 ISO, 100 wRC+) but I’d be interested in Freddie Freeman (.376 wOBA, .398 OBP vs. RHP), Nick Markakis (.398 wOBA, .208 ISO vs. RHP), and even though he’s struggling a bit, I’ll consider Ronald Acuna Jr. (.367 wOBA, .200 ISO) as well.

Texas Rangers (LHBs) vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP - KC)

Fire up some Ranger lefties tonight. Against LHBs, Lopez is allowing a .319 AVG,.438 wOBA, .347 ISO, and a 1.80 WHIP. This is bad news going against the team who may have the most solid all around lefty hitters in baseball. I’d look to stack Joey Gallo (.425 wOBA, .388 ISO, .413 OBP vs. RHP), Shin-Soo Choo (.390 wOBA, .212 ISO), and a slumping, but affordable Nomar Mazara (.310 wOBA, .184 ISO)

Tampa Bay (LHBs) vs. Jose Urena (RHP - MIA)

In a pitcher-dominant park, this is a good chance to possibly get Rays lefties at low ownership tonight. Urena is allowing a ton of contact to hitters and has just a 7.8% SwStr%. Against LHBs, he is giving up 48.1% Hard Contact with just a 13.7% kRate. I’d be willing to roll out Austin Meadows (.476 wOBA, .383 ISO, .436 OBP vs. RHP), Ji-Man Choi (.352 wOBA, .183 ISO vs. RHP), and Brandon Lowe (.386 wOBA, .276 ISO vs. RHP).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Carlos Correa (DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k) | SS - HOU | vs. LHP Gregory Soto

Once again, you’re going to want some Astros exposure tonight. Against lefties, Correa has posted comparable numbers to teammate George Springer but will check in at much more affordable prices. Versus LHPs this season, Correa has a .447 wOBA, .333 ISO, and .415 OBP. Soto is a recent double-A call-up who allowed nine hits, seven runs, and a homer across four innings and 88 pitches in his MLB debut on May 11th. He could be in for another rough outing tonight.

Aledmys Diaz (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k) | 1B/2B - HOU | vs. LHP Gregory Soto

Another Houston bat shouldn’t be a surprise here. Diaz has homered in three of his last four games and is providing a major spark towards the back of this Astros order. He has a very low kRate of 12% this season and a strong .263 ISO. He’ll probably be pretty popular tonight but it’s hard to pass up the affordability and upside here.

Jesus Aguilar (DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k) | 1B - MIL | vs. RHP Jake Arrieta

After being one of the disappointments of the early season, Aguilar has quietly strung together a seven game hit streak. While he still is underperforming massively in comparison to previous seasons, he’s worth a look given his ultra cheap DFS prices. The righty on righty match-up may not look ideal but Aguilar is actually hitting RHPs better than LHPs this season and he has an decent .352 OBP as well. On a night where you really want to fit Verlander in, you’ll need to find some cheap guys like Aguilar to piece in.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" podcast a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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