Top MLB DFS Plays 5/14 | A Wild Friday Night of Baseball Incoming!

May 14, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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A fully loaded 13-game slate comes into play tonight. Quick summary: Strong pitching options up top with some viable low/mid-range arms, nine offenses with an implied run total of at least 4.8 runs, no significant weather postponement threats, Coors Field is on the docket once again (21 runs scored there yesterday!), and TD Ballpark AKA ‘Coors Field Jr.’ is also in play and features excellent hitting conditions. I can already tell, it’s gonna be a wild one tonight. Let’s lock in and get to that cashola!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

OAK @ MIN: A passing line of rain could potentially bring a late start or in-game delay into play. Not a significant postponement threat but double-check the weather here before lock.

TEX @ HOU: Roof will be OPEN at Minute Maid Park. Perhaps a very slight bump to bats with local temps close to 80 degrees throughout the game.

WAS @ ARI: Roof will be OPEN at Chase Field. Temps will be in the mid to high 90s in Phoenix. Bump to bats.

PHI @ TOR: 80 degree temps with 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to right. TD Ballpark in Dunedin, FL has ranked second among MLB parks in adjusted run factor and third in adjusted home run factor. The total here is the exact same as Coors Field (10.5 O/U) so a pretty clear bump goes to the hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. MIA

Between Kershaw, Glasnow, and Scherzer, we have a trio of aces to choose from today and I really don’t believe you can go wrong with any of ‘em. When choosing one, due to slight salary savings and the better match-up, I’ll ever so slightly lean towards Kershaw who would take on the role of a “late-night hammer.” Kershaw’s 26.1% kRate this season is certainly serviceable but not on the same plain as Glasnow (39.5% kRate) or Scherzer (35.5% kRate). However, Clayton’s 15.6% Swinging Strike Rate is pretty much on par with those two and typically you can double that number to see where a pitcher’s overall kRate *should* be. Miami possesses a below average 95 wRC+ against southpaws this season while striking out 25.7% of the time (9th highest). In 77 plate appearances against CK, the current Marlins roster has just a .123 AVG, .158 wOBA, and a sky high 41.6% kRate. Vegas is pinning a slate-low 2.7 implied run total on Miami and the Dodgers will head into the slate as the heaviest favorites on the day (-230).

Joe Musgrove (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8k | vs. STL

Musgrove’s fantasy output has declined over his previous three starts but that has resulted in him being considerably discounted today. A large portion of pitchers would struggle against the same competition Musgrove has recently faced -- he went on the road against the Dodgers followed by back-to-back starts against the Giants over the span of six days. He still brings a slate best 2.32 xFIP to the mound and has been forcing a 15.2% SwStr%, an elite 34.8% kRate, and a 0.85 WHIP. The Cardinals have shown struggles against RHPs all season -- .292 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and strike out a moderately high 24.3% of the time. Musgrove has a great opportunity to get his impressive season back on track today when he toes the rubber at home in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres are -185 favorites while the Cardinals have just a 3.0 implied run total.

Jake Arrieta (RHP) | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | @ DET

If you want to play the “pick on Detroit” game, there’s a fairly decent chance Arrieta will work out for you but it isn’t without some risk. The Tigers offense is thriving as of late. They’re riding a four game win streak and are averaging 6.0 runs/gm over their last eight. However, on the season they’re still a below average offense and they strike out 27.7% of the time against RHPs (3rd highest). Arrieta is returning from the IL after mending a thumb injury so there is no guarantee he’ll see a normal starter’s pitch count but perhaps we’ll get word on what his expected workload will be later in the day. If he can manage to toss around 80-90 pitches, he can perhaps push towards the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold that I typically hope for out of value pitchers. Prior to getting shelled in his last start against Cincy, Arrieta had recorded at least 15.5 DKFP/30 FDFP in four of his initial five starts in the 2021 season. The Cubs will be slight favorites today (-130) while Detroit carries a moderately low 4.2 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ The Reds and Rockies should carry the usual Coors Field popularity and upside, though with so many games in play this evening, they shouldn’t be incredibly high-owned. I’m actually thinking the Blue Jays could be the chalkiest stack of the day, and I’m certainly not opposed to rolling those bats out especially in cash. Given the strong offensive hitting environment between PHI/TOR, the Phillies should draw heavy consideration as well.

New York Yankees vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

The Yankees hold a strong 4.9 implied run total today but I’d probably view them as more of a GPP-centric stack considering they haven’t plated more than four runs in a game in over a week. They will get to swing away in a great hitter’s park at Camden Yards and will take on the righty Dean Kremer who has allowed a slate-worst 93.4 mph average exit velocity this season. He’s been terrible against lefty bats this season but unfortunately, New York doesn’t have many LHBs to throw at him. Regardless, Kremer has a poor 4.97 xFIP against RHBs along with a .356 wOBA allowed. The Orioles bullpen is also a bottom 10 unit by many key metrics.

Houston Astros vs. Wes Benjamin (LHP), TEX

Over the last two weeks, the Astros have produced a .355 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 136 wRC+ -- all figures which pretty easily rank first in baseball during that span. They’ve also been very difficult to strike out with just a 19.2% kRate in that same two week stretch. With only one career MLB start and 28.0 total innings pitched, Wes Benjamin likely only serves as an extended opener and pitches two or three innings. So Houston will get ample opportunities against an average Rangers bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Detroit Tigers vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

Despite highlighting him above, there is still a legitimate possibility that Arrieta comes out struggling while Detroit’s offense keeps rolling. The Tigers have a league-best .403 OBP over the last week along with a .364 wOBA and 135 wRC+ (both figures rank 3rd). I’m sure there are plenty of DFS players who follow the sport closely and realize how well the Tigers have been hitting as of late. With 26 teams in play and most people averse to trusting this offense, I’d imagine the majority of these Detroit bats will still come in at well below 10% ownership.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

C Wilson Contreras | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

The Cubbies almost made the stack section -- considering they’re going against Tarik Skubal I am absolutely not opposed to targeting Chicago bats. Skubal has a slate-worst 5.99 xFIP this season and is getting absolutely hammered while allowing a .398 wOBA, 13.6% Barrel%, and 3.33 HR/9. Contreras is struggling at the plate this season but not at all against lefties. Versus LHPs, he’s hitting .324 with a .439 wOBA, .382 ISO, and 179 wRC+ with a 44.0% HardHit%. He’s as good of a bet as about anyone to go yard today (outside of perhaps some Coors Field and TD Ballpark guys).

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matt Shoemaker (RHP), MIN

Olson is a little boom-or-bust but he has a great chance to rock Matt Shoemaker today. The Twins right-hander has been awful this season against lefty power and has allowed a .327 AVG, .430 wOBA, .309 ISO, and a 3.65 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate this season.

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

Cutch has provided a strong fantasy floor as of late, scoring no less than 6 DKFP/9 FDFP in his last ten games. In that span, he is batting .333 with a .426 OBP, .465 wOBA, .359 ISO, and 196 wRC+. He has smacked four homers out of the park in those games as well. Gotta love his potential out of the lead-off spot tonight in those awesome hitting conditions down in Dunedin.

OF Lorenzo Cain | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

Cain is hitting just .190 this year which is a far cry from his .287 career average but he has some decent stolen base and home run upside and won’t break the bank or completely kill a lineup even if he duds. It’s only a three plate appearance sample size, but Cain is 3-for-3 against Smyly with a homer and four RBIs.

Value Bats to Consider:

1B Mitch Moreland | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Matt Shoemaker (RHP), MIN

1B/3B Alec Bohm | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

1B/3B Josh Fuentes | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

OF Jarred Kelenic | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

Bubba, Bogman, and I are all calling on Blue Jays to homer today. As mentioned already, hitters have a significant edge at TD Ballpark this evening with 80 degree temps and 15-20 mph winds blowing out to right field. Teoscar has been crushing lately and has a trio of homers with a .435 ISO over the last week. He has also homered off of Velasquez before (eight plate appearances) and the Phillies right-hander has struggled in righty-on-righty situations this season, allowing a .333 ISO, 3.29 HR/9 Rate, and 31.3% HR/FB Rate.

⬇️ RETWEET FOR A CHANCE AT FREE LINESTAR MERCH ⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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