Top MLB DFS Plays 5/14 | Cracking Open a Tuesday Twelve Pack

May 14, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

Tuesday brings us our typical all-inclusive roster of games across the MLB and a dozen will fall on tonight’s main slate. There will be no singular way to approach this one so feel free to deploy multiple strategies for anyone going the MME route. Three games currently carry totals of 7.5 runs or fewer, including a potential pitcher’s duel down in Miami where the Rays and Marlins combine for a 6.5 implied run total. On the flip side, there are five meetings where totals sit at nine runs or higher and this is without a Coors Field or Globe Life Park game to worry about. Incredibly, (for now) there isn’t a single game with even a moderate risk of postponement so let’s dive right into some plays to consider tonight!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Caleb Smith (DK: $9.5k, FD: $11.4k) | LHP | MIA vs. TB

There are several big names atop tonight’s pitching landscape but Smith is just as worthy of consideration as guys like Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, or his counterpart for the evening, Charlie Morton. If you took a blind survey with player names blocked out and only results and metrics shown for all MLB pitchers over the first six weeks of the season, many may wind up selecting Caleb Smith as having the most impressive resume thus far. And after watching some of his games this season, I can tell you he passes the eye test as well. He’s truly throwing some filthy stuff. Smith’s consistency has almost been unmatched, as he has scored no fewer than 17.9 DKFP/33 FDFP over his seven starts. He has a slate-leading 34.8% kRate while holding batters to a .174 AVG, .247 wOBA, .236 OBP to go with an elite 0.89 WHIP and 2.11 ERA (2.99 SIERA). His massive 16.7% Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%) is second in the entire Majors, trailing only Blake Snell. Smith is also holding batters to a .071 AVG with runners in scoring position. Most of his numbers only improve when he throws in the ever-favorable pitcher friendly Marlins Park. Getting to the match-up, against LHP the Rays are a pretty middling offense with a .309 wOBA (18th), .143 ISO (21st), and 96 wRC+ (15th). What stands out most, however, is their league worst 30.6% kRate against southpaw pitchers. That alone makes Smith an elite option today. Considering the Rays will have an elite pitcher taking the mound as well, combined with Miami’s putrid offense, Smith and the Marlins are slight +120 underdogs tonight. Tampa Bay will carry a 3.6 implied run total.

Luke Weaver (DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k) | RHP | ARI vs. PIT

This second tier of pitchers will probably hold a lot of GPP leverage and Weaver appears to be a promising option against the Pirates. He has thrived in more favorable match-ups this season. Weaver’s three poor outings have all come against top ten offenses (CHC, BOS, LAD) and he has gone on to score at least 22.2 DKFP/40 FDFP in his other five starts. The Pirates score 3.64 runs/game, which ranks 27th in the league, so expectations should be fairly high for Weaver in this spot. On the season, he has a 27.2% kRate, 1.06 WHIP, and 3.47 SIERA while allowing a .222 AVG and .247 wOBA. He’ll be backed by the sixth highest scoring offense in the league (5.24 runs/game) as Arizona will be a -150 home favorite while, despite Chase Field being a favorable hitter’s park, the Pirates hold a relatively low 4.1 implied run total.

Danny Duffy (DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.6k) | LHP | KC vs. TEX

The bottom half of pitcher pricing tonight features a minefield of liabilities but Duffy stands out as an affordable arm with promising fantasy upside. The Rangers are the top scoring offense in baseball (5.94 runs/game) and having such a positive home scoring environment like Globe Life Park definitely helps inflate their run output. However, they’re also scoring 5.53 runs/game on the road which checks in at 6th in the league. So while it is always a risk to attack the Rangers bats, it’s much safer to do so with a lefty pitcher. So much of the Rangers production comes from left-handed batters resulting in their metrics taking a drastic hit when facing LHPs and are generally unimpressive: .306 wOBA (20th), .184 ISO (14th), and 83 wRC+ (21st). They also have the third highest strikeout rate against lefty pitchers with a 28.4% kRate. With just 17.2 IP thus far in 2019, this will only be Duffy’s fourth start. So going off of his most recent sample size is a bit of a wash but he has held the Rangers to a .180 AVG over their last 48 at-bats and has surrendered no more than one earned run against Texas in his last four career starts against them. With the ever-vulnerable Shelby Miller as his counterpart tonight, Kansas City has a good shot at coming away with a win as -133 favorites. Texas holds a 4.4 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Kansas City Royals vs. Shelby Miller (RHP - Texas Rangers)

Expected Ownership: High

Making the segue from highlighting the Kansas City pitcher, how about firing up some pieces of this Royals offense? They’re certainly in a great spot against Shelby Miller who hasn’t been effective against anyone this season. He’s allowing hitters a .288 AVG, .372 wOBA, and has a slate-high 1.92 WHIP to pair with his abysmal 7.48 ERA and 6.45 SIERA. He’s also posting just a 13.9% kRate and giving up 46.3% Hard Contact. After Miller pitches his four, maybe five innings, the Rangers will resort to deploying their very vulnerable bullpen, which has a league worst 18.4% kRate along with a 4.69 SIERA, and 1.53 WHIP. Kansas City has a great shot at producing at least a couple rallies throughout this game. It’ll cost you a pretty penny to get the best hitters in this lineup, but I’ll look to target the heart of their order: Hunter Dozier (.473 wOBA, .374 ISO, .430 OBP vs. RHP), Alex Gordon (.404 wOBA, .287 ISO), and Adalberto Mondesi (.347 wOBA, .241 ISO). 

New York Mets (LHBs) vs. Jeremy Hellickson (RHP - Washington Nationals)

Expected Ownership: Medium/Low

With so many offenses in excellent spots tonight, I expect a Mets stack to fly a bit under the radar. Aside from Pete Alonso, the best Mets hitters bat lefty, which is where Hellickson has really struggled in the early goings of 2019. Against LHBs, he has allowed a .368 AVG, .474 wOBA, .368 ISO, .419 OBP, 2.23 WHIP with a 6.69 xFIP. Nothing good about any of those figures. Five of his seven surrendered home runs have come to lefties as well. This is also another situation where a team will be deploying a bad starter paired with their bad bullpen. The Nationals relievers have been among the worst in baseball and have a 6.34 ERA, 4.47 SIERA, .275 AVG, and 1.63 WHIP. Overall, besides RHB Pete Alonso (.367 wOBA, .264 ISO vs. RHP), I’ll lean towards Mets lefties Jeff McNeil (.393 wOBA, .425 OBP vs. RHP), Michael Conforto (.412 wOBA, .266 ISO, .440 OBP), and the affordable Robinson Cano (.364 wOBA, .190 ISO).

Oakland Athletics vs. Mike Leake (RHP - Seattle Mariners)

Expected Ownership: Low

The A’s bats had some major pop going last night as they launched five solo shots out of the park, including a double dinger day from a now healthy Khris Davis. I like their chances at keeping the hot bats going against Mike Leake, who is allowing a .296 AVG, .370 wOBA, 1.42 WHIP and 4.53 SIERA against just a 16.9% kRate. As a running theme in today’s stack section, the Mariners bullpen is also a major liability. They’ve posted a 4.46 SIERA, 1.61 WHIP, and a 1.71 HR/9 rate this season. The A’s bats are all pretty affordable and I’ll go back to the well with Matt Chapman (.363 wOBA, .208 ISO vs. RHP), Khris Davis (.358 wOBA, .279 ISO), and Matt Olson (.334 wOBA, .219 ISO) who should see a bump up in the order with a LvR match-up and has hit homers in his last two games.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

JD Martinez (DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Martinez draws a match-up against a lefty starter and, after what he has done thus far in 2019 against southpaws, he’ll be a tough guy to fade. In 35 plate appearances against LHPs this year, he has an absurd .400 AVG, .580 wOBA, and .567 ISO. Obviously those numbers will normalize to more mortal averages eventually, but the fact that five of his seven home runs this season have come off of lefties is noteworthy considering he has 132 more plate appearances versus righties. As odd as it may be, Kyle Freeland’s career numbers are worse when he goes on the road away from Coors Field. So keep Martinez firmly on your radar.

Shohei Ohtani (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k) | OF | vs. RHP Kyle Gibson

After being inserted back into the Angels lineup while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ohtani got ahold of his first home run of the season last night. If he is ready to get into the sort of groove that he showed in his 2018 rookie season, then he is most certainly underpriced. He’ll get the lefty on righty advantage tonight -- 21 of his 23 home runs have come off of RHPs and his other splits are elite, with a .306 AVG, .426 wOBA, and .335 ISO. Against LHBs this season, Gibson is allowing a .334 wOBA and .259 ISO and of the six home runs he has surrendered this year, five have been to lefties in roughly the same amount of innings pitched (20.1 IP vs. LHB, 18.1 IP vs. RHB). Few players with similar DFS salaries will carry the sort of upside Ohtani has tonight.

Yuli Gurriel (DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k) | 1B/3B | vs. LHP Ryan Carpenter

Houston will perhaps be the most popular team to stack today for good reason but guys like Springer, Bregman, and Correa carry massive price tags. Gurriel is a much more affordable way to get some exposure to a team with a slate-high 5.8 implied runs. Gurriel often pops up in this “one-off” section whenever he faces a lefty because, historically, he has extremely favorable splits. Against LHP this season he is posting a .303 AVG, .394 wOBA, .212 ISO, and .410 OBP. He’s also yet to strike out in 39 plate appearances against lefties this season. Second year pitcher Ryan Carpenter will have his work cut out for him and in 27.1 professional innings pitched, he has a 7.90 ERA, 4.88 SIERA, 13.2% kRate, .347 AVG, 1.72 WHIP, and a 3.29 HR/9 Rate. To state the obvious, this could get very ugly for him tonight.

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