Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/13 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

We’ll kick off our Monday with a fairly modest six game main slate and, overall, this definitely feels like a pitcher-centric evening. With talent and match-ups taken into consideration, there is a fairly noticeable drop off between the top five or six priced hurlers and the rest of the field. Normally, if you dig enough, you can eventually reason your way into seeing potential value in less elite or more unknown pitchers -- and finding value pitchers is one of my favorite things to research for in MLB DFS -- but tonight, anyone priced below Brad Peacock is a tough sell for me. Sorry Mike Fiers and company. But feel free to convince me otherwise in the LineStar chat! There doesn’t appear to be any glaring weather concerns across the docket, so let’s get right into the meat of this six-gamer!

Tonight’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Shane Bieber (DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k) | RHP | CLE @ CWS

It’s worth noting that pitcher pricing deviates a bit between DK and FD -- Robbie Ray looks like an appealing option over on FanDuel at $8.8k but carries a bit less interest for me on DK at $10k. Speaking towards Bieber, despite a pretty lackluster performance against this same White Sox team in his last start (6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 6 K, on 87 pitches) he still came away with the win and I would put that stat line as his floor for tonight. Bieber has been excellent against RHBs this season: .180 AVG, .247 wOBA, 32.1% kRate, 0.85 WHIP so the main concern would come against facing batters on the left side of the plate. The White Sox roll out five or six lefties and switch hitters but the only guy in this lineup that really concerns me against Bieber is Yoan Moncada. Regardless, there are plenty of guys who strike out quite a bit within this order, including Moncada, and the White Sox as a team have a league worst 28.5% kRate over the last two weeks. Even if Bieber surrenders a few runs, the potential to offset that with the strong possibility of eight to ten strikeouts will land him squarely on my radar for tonight. The Cleveland offense has a favorable match-up against Reynaldo Lopez, so with some quality implied run support (4.6 runs), the Indians are solid -145 favorites while the White Sox carry a 3.9 implied run total.

Brad Peacock (DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | HOU @ DET

Peacock has been anything but consistent through his six 2019 starts but his recommendation here is very clearly match-up driven. Attacking the Detroit offense through pitching has been a pretty lucrative venture up to this point in the season. They are averaging 3.53 runs/game (28th) and against righties they have just a .225 AVG, .286 wOBA, .144 ISO, and a 25.9% kRate. They also lead the league with a 12.8% SwStr%. Peacock hasn’t been awful by any means (24.7% kRate, .283 wOBA, 3.88 SIERA, 1.09 WHIP). He has just had some very tough opponent draws and has struggled versus lefties. Luckily for him, Detroit only has two or three viable LHBs they can deploy and this should be by far the best match-up Peacock has faced. The Tigers will have their ace, Matthew Boyd, on the hill tonight, which limits some win upside here. However, with the ever dangerous Houston offense, Peacock and the Astros check in as the second heaviest favorite on the slate (-152) and the Tigers have a 3.9 implied run total.

Tyler Skaggs (DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k) | LHP | LAA @ MIN

As I mentioned in the introduction, any pitcher below Brad Peacock in pricing just carries a ton of added risk tonight. So while I don’t love Skaggs as a play in general, I do acknowledge the leverage of rostering him in some lineups. The feeling early on from my point of view is that Yusei Kikuchi will be the most popular “spend down” pitching option tonight. I like Kikuchi as an improving talent but going against an A’s lineup that tags up LHPs regularly and is stacked with righties, I’ll pass on him if he is set to be even remotely chalky. The Twins are also super dangerous against southpaw pitchers (.358 wOBA, .217 ISO, .352 OBP, 124 wRC+) so Skaggs absolutely has his work cut out for him. Most of his numbers this season are about the epitome of “average” or slightly below: 21.5% kRate, 4.44 SIERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.4% SwStr%, 42.9% Hard Contact. Honestly, stacking against him would be the more logical decision. Still, I believe Skaggs is slightly under-performing this season and there were stretches last season where his DFS salaries hit the five figure range for a reason. If you take the leap of faith here, you will likely get him at <10% ownership.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHBs) vs. Nick Kingham (RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates)

Expected Ownership: Medium

With Chris Archer on the mend, Kingham will earn his second start of the season for the Pirates. Even though they are priced up a bit, I’ll give the lefties in this D-Backs order a long look. Since the start of last year against lefties, Kingham is allowing a .295 AVG, .408 wOBA, .306 ISO, 1.75 WHIP, and 2.59 HR/9 while striking out just 15.7% of LHBs. The RHB I do have plenty of interest in is reverse splits hitter Christian Walker (.406 wOBA, .296 ISO vs. RHP) who is crushing righties this season. David Peralta (.401 wOBA, .265 ISO) is super reliable against righties and Jarrod Dyson (.357 wOBA, .380 OBP, 7 stolen bases) could likely nab the lead-off spot tonight.

Cleveland Indians vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP - Chicago White Sox)

Expected Ownership: Medium

The Indians’ offense has been a lineup to target very sparingly but a match-up with Reynaldo Lopez is about as good of a time as any to give ‘em a look. Lopez has had a couple strong games against the Tigers this season (not saying much) and one decent outing against the Royals, but otherwise he has been getting throttled pretty consistently. On the season, he has allowed a .305 AVG, .389 wOBA, .386 OBP, 1.75 WHIP, and has allowed nine home runs already for a 1.91 HR/9 rate while also walking just under 4.5 batters per nine. The White Sox have a pretty lackluster bullpen (4.56 SIERA, 1.53 WHIP, 1.47 HR/9) as well, so there is decent potential for the Indians lineup even after Lopez is retired. Francisco Lindor (.329 wOBA, .165 ISO) hasn’t been phenomenal since his return to the lineup but he’s easily the best hitter on this team and is riding a seven game hit streak. Leonys Martin (.338 wOBA, .214 ISO vs. RHP) has been arguably the most productive bat for Cleveland versus righties and likely deserves to move back up in the order. Mike Freeman (.407 OBP vs. RHP) may slot in towards the top of the lineup if Cleveland sits the struggling Jason Kipnis again and would make for a promising value play.

Oakland Athletics vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP - Seattle Mariners)

Expected Ownership: Low

I kind of alluded to this above, but if Kikuchi is going to be pretty popular tonight, I am on board with going the other way by stacking some A’s. I just think Oakland is too righty heavy for Kikuchi to have a ton of success against. Versus LHP this season, the Athletics rank near the top in several meaningful statistical categories: .344 wOBA (4th), .209 ISO (7th), .339 OBP (6th), 119 wRC+ (4th), 42.1% Hard Contact (7th), 40.1% FB Rate (2nd) and their 18% kRate is the second lowest in the league. Even without stacking Oakland, Matt Chapman (.460 wOBA, .531 ISO, 9.8% kRate vs. LHP) is one of my favorite one-off bats of the night. Stephen Piscotty (.445 wOBA, .333 ISO vs. LHP) has had mundane fantasy outputs lately but he’s been much better against lefties. And finally, Khris Davis (.395 wOBA, .429 ISO vs. LHP) is just too cheap, particularly on DK, and we should expect him to be in the lineup again for his second game back from a hip injury.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Rhys Hoskins (DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.4k) | 1B | PHI vs. MIL

Hoskins has been a much better hitter against RHPs this season (.296 AVG, .432 wOBA, .324 ISO) and today he’ll get a shot at two gettable righties between Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser, who will be operating in a split start. Both of these pitchers have ERAs above six this season and have allowed a .369 wOBA (Peralta) and .433 wOBA (Houser) along with ten combined home runs in 37 combined innings (3.7 HR/9). Hoskins has 11 homers this season, seven of those came at home versus righties. He is a lethal power hitter capable of a huge game tonight.

Omar Narvaez (DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k) | C | SEA vs. OAK

For what it’s worth, a Mariners stack against Mr. No-Hitter Mike Fiers is well in play today, but also how can you not love the potential from Narvaez if you’re looking for a one-off hitter out of this lineup? He’s coming off of back-to-back home run games and on the season against righties, he has an impressive .337 AVG, .419 wOBA, and .239 ISO. In what is typically a tricky position to fill, he’s been one of the more explosive catchers to utilize for DFS purposes this year.

Marwin Gonzalez (DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k) | 1B/OF (DK), 3B (FD) | MIN vs. LAA

Gonzalez has been mentioned here quite a bit recently as a cheap value bat. He has hit safely in nine of his last ten games including back-to-back multi-hit outings. He’s recently been bumped up in the order during those previous two games and has rewarded the coaching staff accordingly. As a switch hitter, Gonzalez’s splits against southpaw pitchers have been his more favorable ones this season and despite Tyler Skaggs being highlighted above, he’s still a pitcher that can be targeted. It’s a very small BvP sample size, but Gonzalez is 7 for 12 against Skaggs in his career and has a .615 OBP. He’ll likely be a popular value selection hitting in the middle of a lineup projected at 4.8 implied runs but I’d be alright with ignoring his ownership, taking the savings, and just differentiating elsewhere.

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