By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Time to kick any and all superstitions to the curb. It’s Friday the 13th but we’re only manifesting good luck and good vibes today as we tackle this hefty 13-game main slate! This slate looks to have it all; several aces on the mound, Coors Field is in play, some intriguing pitchers are out there in the mid/low price ranges, and there are a slew of offenses that provide stack viability. It also appears as if the weather should have a minimal negative impact as well since no games are currently in major danger of getting slapped with a postponement. Let’s get down into the nitty gritty and have some fun as we go head first into the weekend!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

While there are no major postponement scenarios lined up today, a few ballparks could still get hit with some spotty rain or a rogue thunderstorm.

HOU @ WAS (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Scattered showers/t-storms in the Washington area. If one makes its way over the ballpark, a delay is possible.

SD @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7 O/U): Low-end chance that one of those rogue storms could roll through the Atlanta area but not overly likely.

SF @ STL (8:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Looks like this will be the riskiest game of the day with t-storms around St. Louis this evening but the most likely outcome is that they’ll hold off until after the game and that they can play this one dry. I wouldn’t be fading this game strictly due to weather at this time, but do check the forecast here once we get closer to lock. This will be the warmest game on the slate with 85-degree temps at first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.7k | vs. SEA

It won’t be sneaky by any means, but it’s hard to go wrong with Mad Max today. Scherzer continues to do Scherzer things even into his age 37 season. He’s rocking a 2.92 ERA, 2.76 xFIP, and 34.3% kRate. He’ll be making only his third start at home as a Met but Citi Field seems to be a park where he particularly thrives. In 16 career starts at Citi Field, Scherzer holds a 2.30 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, .175 opp AVG, 0.88 WHIP, and a 35% kRate. He’ll draw the Mariners, who have been one of the worst road offenses in the MLB. They’re averaging just 3.00 runs/gm on the road (4th lowest) and against RHPs on the road, they’re only hitting .213 with a .280 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and a decently high 23.3% kRate. Scherzer leads the slate with an average of 98.8 pitches/gm over his last five starts so, as long as he doesn’t allow 10 hits like last game, he could easily make it through seven innings tonight. The Mets are very heavy -220 favorites and Seattle holds a meager 3.0 implied run total, which they’ll be lucky to surpass.

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | @ WAS

There are five notable aces on this slate: Buehler (Kershaw scratched), Scherzer, Gausman, Cole, and Fried. Since viable cheap bats are easy to come by on a 13-game slate, an overwhelming amount of ownership will fall on those top five arms. Even on DraftKings, I’d expect many lineups will play two of those five guys in the same lineup (and that’s the way I’ll be leaning when I build my cash lineup). So, essentially, any pitcher outside of that five-man group should carry <15% ownership.

That will make a guy like Framber Valdez a major leverage option today. He’s far from the most consistent pitcher but when he is at his best, he does carry a legitimate 30 DKFP/50 FDFP upside. Valdez is the definition of a “ground ball specialist” and his 72% GB% easily leads all qualified MLB starters this season. The Nationals 50.2% GB% vs. LHPs is the third-highest ground ball rate in the MLB, so this is a match-up that plays directly into Valdez’s skillset. Of course, strikeouts are the most valuable thing when it comes to pitchers in DFS. Unfortunately, Valdez has only accounted for an 18.8% kRate this season which is noticeably down from his 22.2% career kRate. The Nationals also rarely strikeout with their MLB-low 16.7% kRate vs. LHPs -- but that’s also a reason why their ground ball rate is so high. Most sportsbooks have Valdez’s strikeout over/under prop set at 4.5 Ks today. But if Valdez does manage to accrue five or six strikeouts, I like his chances of returning value today. He has thrown at least 96 pitches in each of his last three starts so, given all of those groundball outs he racks up, he can end up pitching into the 7th inning today as he so often did last season. Some extra outs and a potential win/quality start bonus (HOU -155 favorites) could also help offset some of the lack of strikeout upside. Also of note, Valdez is the only pitcher on this slate to carry a five-star “AlertScore” rating on LineStar. So while there are MUCH safer ways to go at pitcher today, Valdez stands out as one of the best contrarian plays for GPPs.

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. BAL

If you’re skimming towards the bottom half of the pricing hierarchy looking for a pitcher worthy of some exposure in your lineups today, perhaps consider Eduardo Rodriguez. ERod has had a pretty brutal stretch of match-ups over his last four starts: vs. Yankees, at Twins, at Dodgers, at Astros. Despite those tough opponents, he pitched relatively well during that time. In those four starts (24.1 IP), he has come away with a 4.07 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, .187 opp AVG, 0.95 WHIP, and a 24.7% kRate. He also threw at least 90 pitches in each of those four starts and pitched at least 5.2 innings.

The sledding should be easier for him today as he faces off with the Baltimore Orioles. Against LHPs this season, the O’s have only a .213 AVG, .276 wOBA, .102 ISO, and an 81 wRC+ -- those are numbers that put them well inside the bottom 10 in every category. Their 27.5% kRate vs. LHPs is also the second-highest kRate in the MLB. Rodriguez will take the mound at home today in the pitcher-friendly Comerica Park where ~10 mph winds will be blowing in. The 9-23 Tigers are also moderately strong -150 favorites today and the Orioles are being pinned with a low 3.4 implied run total. Rodriguez is coming off of his best start of the season against a talented Astros lineup where he allowed just one run on one hit (a solo shot HR) across 6.2 innings (99 pitches) with eight strikeouts -- it was a performance that netted him 26.6 DKFP/45 FDFP. If he carries that momentum into this considerably easier match-up against the Orioles, he could end up smashing value in this spot.

Also Consider:

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10k, FD: $9.8k | @ TB

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ CWS

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k | vs. SD

*Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA | DK: $5.5k, FD: N/A | @ OAK

*Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.9k | @ DET

*DraftKings GPP SP2 Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Colorado Rockies vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

Los Angeles Angels (RHBs Preferred) vs. Dalton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

Pitchers have had a bad time against this Angels lineup lately so it’ll be a big ask from Jefferies to keep these guys in check. Over the last week against RHPs (167 PA), the Angels are hitting .297 with a .388 wOBA, .216 ISO, and 163 wRC+ along with a 39.5% HardContact%. Jefferies only has 46.1 IP in his MLB career but he has shown some very poor reverse split tendencies, which will make the Angels righty hitters the preferred bats today (though I wouldn’t necessarily go completely away from the LHBs). This season, Jefferies has faced 69 RHBs and has allowed a .323 AVG, .386 wOBA, and .246 ISO to go along with a 7.80 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate. One downside to this Angels stack is the fact that this game will be played in Oakland at the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. However, the Angels also happen to be one of the best road offenses in baseball. In away games this season, they are averaging 5.29 runs/gm (ranks 2nd) with a 125 wRC+ (also ranks 2nd). The A’s have a below-average bullpen which has performed at a bottom 10 level in recent weeks, so that leaves the window open for an Angels stack to pop off at any point throughout this game.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Jared Walsh | Sneaky Bat: Jack Mayfield

New York Yankees vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), CWS

It’s looking like another night where Yankees bats could turn up big as they step up to the plate against Vinny V. On the season, Velasquez has posted some really poor statcast numbers. He’s allowed a high 13.2% Barrel%, 45.6% HardHit%, and 92 mph average exit velocity. The average launch angle of 19.2 degrees off of Velasquez is also in that danger zone where many hits become more of the extra base variety. He’s pitched particularly poorly against RHBs to whom he’s allowed a .333 AVG, .437 wOBA, .286 ISO with a 5.55 xFIP, 1.90 WHIP, and 2.70 HR/9. That wouldn’t stop me from rostering Anthony Rizzo, but the other Yankees LHBs may be worth fading. As we saw last night, the White Sox bullpen has not been anything special either. Their 4.00 xFIP ranks sixth-worst among MLB bullpens this season and their 1.37 WHIP is fifth-worst.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo | Sneaky Bat: Gleyber Torres

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

The Guardians continue to be a very feast or famine offense and Sonny Gray is well-thought of as a high-quality pitcher so I don’t see many folks looking to stack up Cleveland bats today. Despite their volatility, the Guardians do check out as one of the best offenses in baseball against RHPs: .273 AVG (ranks 1st), .339 wOBA (2nd), .162 ISO (7th), 128 wRC+ (2nd), 18.7% kRate (lowest in MLB). Gray suffered a hamstring injury in mid-April so he has made only three starts and pitched 10.1 innings this season. In his first start back last Saturday following a three-week stint on the IL, Gray was sharp -- he pitched four scoreless two-hit innings and struck out seven. Not to take anything away from him, but it was a soft match-up against Oakland. What’s most noteworthy, however, is that he threw only 66 pitches so he’s probably not going to be fully stretched out tonight and may throw only around 80 pitches.

If Cleveland can get Gray out of the game early, they’ll face a Twins bullpen that may be overtaxed heading into this game. That bullpen has thrown an MLB-high 31.1 innings over the last week. They’ll also be without one of their primary relievers, Danny Coulombe, due to a hip injury. So, perhaps Sonny Gray can limit the damage that the Guardians account for in the early innings, but lookout for a possible late surge out of Cleveland if they can take advantage of Minnesota’s bullpen woes.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor | Sneaky Bat: Steven Kwan

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dalton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), CWS

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

C Sal Perez | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Corey Seager | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B/2B Owen Miller | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF/1B Juan Yepez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

1B/OF Josh Naylor | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

OF LaMonte Wade Jr. | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), STL

2B/SS Andres Gimenez | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

3B/1B/OF Brad Miller | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Royce Lewis | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

2B/OF Eli White | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF/2B Travis Demeritte | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

Josiah Gray has been giving out home runs to LHBs like it’s candy on Halloween. He has given up five HRs this season, and they’ve all come off the bats of lefty hitters. Overall against LHBs, he’s allowing a .391 wOBA, .306 ISO, 2.76 HR/9 Rate, and a massive 62.8% Fly Ball Rate. Nine of Alvarez’s 10 HRs this season have come against RHPs and he has a ridiculous 45.0% HR/FB Rate against righties as well. So, if the numbers continue to play out the way they have been for this hitter/pitcher duo, any fly ball that Yordan hits off of Gray has an incredibly high chance of leaving the ballpark. Nationals Park has also rated out as the 10th best home run park for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons so be on the lookout for another Yordan dinger tonight!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Max Scherzer OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | +110 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

Just like it’s hard to go wrong with Scherzer in DFS, it’s also hard to go wrong with taking the over on his strikeout prop, especially when he gets lined up with a nice match-up. The Mariners have had the tendency to strike out more on the road where they have a moderately high 23.3% kRate vs. RHPs. And, as mentioned above, Scherzer’s 34.3% kRate this season is right on par with his 35% kRate that he owns across 16 career games pitched at his new home in Citi Field (39.6% kRate in two home starts this season). He’s gone over 100 pitches in three of his last four games with the outlier being a 94-pitch outing on May 1st, so the potential to cover 7+ innings is there. That’s plenty of time for Mad Max to rack up 8+ Ks this evening. An even money bet on this prop will be ultra enticing today.

Fri-Yay Home Run Prop Parlay:

Giancarlo Stanton (+225) & Yordan Alvarez (+250) to BOTH hit a Home Run | +1038 (Bovada) | 0.5 Units

After a double-dong night in Minnesota, Stanton now has four home runs in his last four games. When he’s dialed in like this, you ride the wave. He’ll get at least two at-bats against Vince Velasquez tonight, who has been terrible vs. RHBs this season: .437 wOBA, .286 ISO, 2.70 HR/9 Rate. The White Sox bullpen has been playing pretty poorly as well, so the HR potential will still be there when Vinny V is retired.

Yordan Alvarez is my home run call of the day, so refer to that section for the full write-up on why he’s in a good spot to go yard. But, in case you’re seeing this on Twitter, the gist is: Josiah Gray has allowed five HRs this season, all to LHBs (like Yordan). He’s also allowing a crazy high 62.8% Fly Ball Rate to lefties. Yordan has nine HRs vs. RHPs this season and an absurd 45.0% HR/FB Rate. So, Alvarez + Fly Ball off of Josiah Gray = a damn likely home run.

You could throw Aaron Judge (+225 to hit a HR) into this parlay as well, or possibly switch to Stanton/Judge or Judge/Alvarezto keep it a two-leg prop because he’s just as likely to go yard as Stanton is today. Coincidentally, these three guys happen to be the HR calls of the day for @ShannonOnSports, @FlatTyler83, and myself.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!