By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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As we near the weekend, we have a little split slate Thursday action heading our way. By the time some of you get this article, I’m hoping that you’re well on your way to an early slate takedown! Six games will land on the main slate ticket this evening which happens to include a Coors Field match-up with the Reds traveling into Colorado. On a slate this size, I believe you start your GPP approach by determining how you’re going to treat the Coors Field game. Will you load up on the almost guaranteed chalky bats? Go light exposure to the hitters or draft lower-owned stacks of guys hitting further back in the order? Fade the game entirely? Or take the maniacal approach and roster one of the pitchers? Whichever path you decide to take, I wish you luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

No weather/PPD issues today.

TEX @ HOU: The roof at Minute Maid Park is scheduled to be OPEN. Temps in Houston will be in the high 70s so little to no impact regardless.

MIA @ ARI: The roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be OPEN. Local temps in Phoenix will be in the low to mid 90s throughout the game. Hitters get a bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zach Plesac (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.4k | @ SEA

I wish the strikeout upside was a bit stronger with Plesac (19.3% kRate thru 40.0 IP). However, he will carry a similar amount of fantasy point potential as guys like Cristian Javier and Trevor Rogers but will come at a nice discount by comparison. What Plesac may lack in K upside, he can make up for by simply having a highly stretched out pitch count. He has thrown 110 and 112 pitches in his last two starts and most recently tossed a gem against a strong offense in the Cincinnati Reds where he went eight full innings, allowing zero runs on three hits with seven Ks. Seattle has rated out as a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs this season (.293 wOBA & 93 wRC+) and their 25.8% kRate against righties is the eighth highest strikeout rate in baseball. The Mariners have also averaged just 3.88 runs/gm at home this season. Plesac has outside potential for hitting the 30 DKFP/50 FDFP threshold if he can manage to rack up another six or seven Ks. Side note: Seattle should be debuting their top prospect, Jarred Kelenic, tonight. That’s a young lefty slugger who should absolutely help boost Seattle’s offensive output. More on him below.

Jameson Taillon (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | @ TB

Taillon’s 28.8% kRate trails only Javier and Rogers among today’s main slate pitchers. His 5.02 ERA looks a bit ugly on the surface but his 3.80 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA tells us that he has been getting a bit unlucky and we should expect his earned run average to begin to drop lower than its current mark. The Tampa Bay Rays have some hitters who can do some damage, but they’re really struggling at home at the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field where they’ve averaged just 2.79 runs/gm this season, making them the lowest scoring home offense in the MLB. When playing at home against RHPs this season, they have just a 75 wRC+ (ranks 28th), .260 wOBA (last), and strike out a league-high 27.8% of the time. I’d expect a pretty strong outing from Taillon today and his $7,700 price tag on both sites makes him a very fair bargain.

Logan Gilbert (RHP) | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. CLE

Unfortunately, Gilbert is only in the player pool on DraftKings today but I likely would only be considering him as an SP2 flier on DK anyhow. He’s another top Mariner prospect who will be making his MLB debut and could immediately be pushing for a cemented spot within the six-man rotation if he impresses tonight. In 26 minor league starts in 2019, Gilbert notched a terrific 2.13 ERA, nearly a 30.0% kRate, and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Cleveland is a below average offense with a 93 wRC+ versus RHPs and it would seem that Vegas is showing Gilbert quite a bit of respect as they’ve essentially made this game into a near pick ‘em (CLE -115, SEA -105) and have the total at 7.5 runs. At $4,000, there is a huge fantasy point per dollar potential if Gilbert is treated as a traditional starter and can manage to get in around five innings of work while limiting run damage and racking up a few Ks.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ Obligatory, “Coors Field bats.” The Reds will be the preferred stack as they carry a slate-high 5.9 implied run total. The Rockies check in at second with a 5.1 implied total.

Houston Astros vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

If Coors Field wasn’t on the slate, the Astros would possibly possess the highest overall ownership on the slate. They have been excellent against RHPs, posting a 115 wRC+ (ranks 2nd) on the year. Houston also possesses a league-low 19.8% kRate which will make things even more difficult for a pitcher like Folty who only has a 21.8% kRate this season. Foltynewicz has also been taken deep a ton this season. He’s given up 11 HRs in just 40.0 IP which equates to a slate-high 2.48 HR/9 Rate -- four of his seven starts have resulted in teams mashing multiple taters off of him. Folty will also be supported by a bullpen that rates out as mediocre, at best.

Oakland Athletics vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

It wasn’t all that long ago when the A’s were the hottest team in baseball and routinely racked up 7+ runs. I’ve noticed that no one is really on board with Garrett Richards today, but people aren’t really throwing much love towards any A’s hitters either (aside from Matt Olson). So what gives? Richards has pitched well at times this season but he’s far from consistent and he lets on a fairly high number of base runners with a high 9.6% Walk Rate and a 1.46 WHIP. Oakland hasn’t done a massive amount of damage lately but they still have a considerable amount of power throughout their lineup and can explode at any time.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Miami Marlins vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

The Marlins are objectively a pretty below average (read: “bad”) offense but at some point that roof being open at Chase Field with 90+ degree temperatures in Phoenix is going to produce a barrage of runs, right? I mean, Arizona did plate 11 runs on Tuesday but mostly by way of RBI singles/doubles -- which, hey, there’s nothing wrong with that either. There have been five homers hit over the first three games of this Marlins/D-backs series but I’m looking for more! Merrill Kelly has been prone to giving up power throughout his career and that trend still holds true this season as he has allowed a 40.0% HardHit% and around a .200 ISO to both sides of the plate. Even on a short six game slate, I don’t believe much ownership will fall on Miami but there is some sneaky potential here.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

Winker has just been such a steady fantasy baseball asset this season which is reflected by his 195 wRC+ and .468 wOBA, which trails only Mike Trout on the year in both categories. He’s also destroying righties, hitting .424 with a massive .537 wOBA, .376 ISO, and 239 wRC+. The Reds have also been slotting Winker in at second in the order as opposed to leadoff, which boosts his RBI upside a bit. He should be a prime Coors Field target today. Chalky, for sure. But a scary dude to fade.

OF Charlie Blackmon | $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

I’ll roll with ‘Chuck Nazty’ as my preferred one-off target on the other side of the dugout at Coors today. Blackmon has oddly struggled at home this season, hitting just .182 with a 40 wRC+. That’s a far cry from his career .342 AVG and 130 wRC+ at Coors. I would fully anticipate for those challenges to come to a halt soon, especially if he keep smashing the ball as hard as a he has been lately. Blackmon’s 53.5% HardHit% over the last two weeks ranks 4th in all of baseball. Luis Castillo is also allowing a .363 AVG, .419 wOBA, and .200 ISO to LHBs this season.

1B Nate Lowe | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

Javier is fully capable of shutting the Rangers down today but he’s a fly ball pitcher with a career 52.2% FB Rate. Normally, it works for him and he produces plenty of pop-ups and flyouts, but he has been taken deep for three home runs in his last two starts and has a career 1.88 HR/9 Rate vs. LHBs. Lowe leads the Rangers with a 40.0% HR/FB rate versus RHPs this season and six of his seven homers have come at the expense of righties. Beyond hunting for home run stats, Lowe is simply a solid hitter against RHPs in general: .315 AVG, .443 wOBA, 192 wRC+ with a 49.0% HardHit% this year. If Javier comes out a bit sluggish today, Lowe should show up prominently in the final box score.

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs, Sean Manaea (RHP), OAK

Who doesn’t love THE GREAT HUNTER RENFROE?! Legend has it, if you say Hunter Renfroe’s name three times in the mirror, @ZeroInDenver will show up behind you with an iPad and 300 lineups ready to roll out. Renfroe is absolutely smoking the ball lately, rocking an average exit velocity of 100.8 mph over the last two weeks (95th percentile) with an 80.0% HardHit%. He’ll have his work cut out for him against Sean Manaea but Renfroe always provides excellent upside at a very low salary.

OF Jarred Kelenic | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

We should see Kelenic make his MLB debut for the Mariners tonight, and he’ll be awfully tempting to roster at a flat $2k on DraftKings (not available on FanDuel, unfortunately) even while going against a solid pitcher like Plesac. Kelenic is the #4 overall prospect (per MLB.com) and is viewed as a true five-tool player with speed, the ability to field, throw, hit, and hit with power. Regardless of how his professional debut works out, I do believe we’ll be playing a lot of this dude throughout the season.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Jarred Kelenic | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

Well, damn! I was going to be a bit cheesy and roll with a Coors Field bat for my HR call with Tyler Naquin, but the Reds just released their lineup and he isn’t in the starting order today. So, put me all-in on the Kelenic hype train! Plesac will be a tough dude to hit a homer off of but sometimes ya just gotta roll the dice and ride the wave of hope and high expectations.

⬇️ RETWEET FOR A CHANCE AT FREE LINESTAR MERCH ⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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