By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

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It’s a short stack of games waiting on deck for us this evening so expect this newsletter to break the record for “shortest newsletter of the season.” The four-game evening slate on FanDuel will start up at 6:35 ET with CIN @ PIT leading things off. The DraftKings slate will not be featuring that game, so it’ll be slimmed down to only three games and the slate won’t start up over there until 8:05 ET with the KC @ TEX game. The primary focus for this newsletter will be on the three mutually shared games today, so there is not a ton to dig into. Regardless, let’s see if we can get a little creative and find some success on this Thursday mini-slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

NYY @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): Temps close to 80 degrees at first pitch but there will be some 10 mph winds blowing IN from center to mostly balance things out. No real weather advantage to either hitters or pitchers.

PHI @ LAD (10:10 ET, 8 O/U): Light winds blowing OUT to right field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | vs. NYY

It’s a tough match-up but Cease will carry, by far, the most raw strikeout upside out of the six pitchers we have to choose from today. He has posted a marvelous 34.3% kRate and 14.6% SwStr% on the season and out of his six starts, he has recorded at least eight Ks in five of them. The only game where he didn’t score above 20 DKFP/35 FDFP was on the road against Cleveland, AKA perhaps the best offense against RHPs in the MLB up to this point. The good news for Cease is that the Yankees seem to be coming down from their recent hot streak. Over the last week vs. RHPs, they’re hitting for a .168 AVG with a modest 78 wRC+. Strikeouts will be tough to come by (21.4% kRate, 7th lowest) but Cease has put up strong numbers against other low strikeout teams, so this remains a manageable match-up.

Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.7k | vs. KC

On a bigger slate, Hearn probably wouldn’t be showing up as a highlighted pitcher here, but we’ve gotta play the hand we’re dealt today. The hope for Hearn is that he’ll be able to replicate the success he had in his most recent start against Atlanta where he covered five innings, threw 89 pitches, allowed only two runs with six strikeouts, earned the win, and scored 19.1 DKFP/33 FDFP. He’s a very affordable option who draws a nice match-up against a Royals team whose 81 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 26th in the MLB. The Royals don’t strikeout often with only a 19% kRate split vs. LHPs, however, the Rangers are moderate -140 favorites at home today and, again, we just need Hearn to hold it together for a solid five innings or so to return decent value on his cheap DFS salaries.

Also Consider:

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $9.5k | @ LAD

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Texas Rangers vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

The Rangers are a bit of a tough sell because, for the most part, they just haven’t been great offensively this season. But they do draw arguably the best match-up against the lowest quality starting pitcher on the slate. Heasley will be making his first MLB start of the 2022 season. Heasley’s only MLB experience came on three starts (14.2 IP) last year where he posted a lackluster 4.91 ERA, 5.66 xFIP, and a meager 10.2% kRate. His Triple-A numbers across six starts this year have been decent (4.44 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 29.1% kRate) but there’s nothing too scary there. If Heasley only makes it through four or five innings, the Rangers should have some additional plus match-ups against a Royals bullpen that has a 1.42 WHIP (4th highest) and 3.95 xFIP (9th highest). The Rangers lead the slate with a 4.6 implied run total.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Brad Miller | Sneaky Bat: Jonah Heim

Chicago White Sox vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

The White Sox will match up with Luis Gil, who will be another pitcher making his 2022 MLB debut this evening. Gil has excellent strikeout potential but he recorded a fairly poor 4.85 xFIP in his six starts (29.1 IP) last season while also struggling with issuing walks (14.7% BB%). The walk issues have continued into his minor league appearances this year (14.5% BB%) where he has only made it through 17.0 IP in five starts. If Gil doesn’t pitch deep into this game, the White Sox will of course see extra at-bats against bullpen arms. The Yankees have one of the better bullpens in the majors (2.38 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP) but perhaps we can more so hope for one or two big innings from the White Sox, either against Gil or one of the Yankees relievers, instead of a steady stream of production that spans throughout the game. One or two offensively charged innings may be all it takes to come out as a top stack on this slate.

Favorite CWS Bats: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada | Sneaky Bat: Gavin Sheets

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

This is a pure leverage situation here. Of course, the Yankees aren’t a bad offense by any stretch but they’re facing a difficult match-up with Dylan Cease today. Cease will be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate and he currently checks in with projected ownership of 44% on DraftKings. If there is one way to differentiate from the field on a small slate, it’s to stack bats against the top arm on the board. On the season, the Yankees have ranked 5th vs. RHPs with a 114 wRC+ and, despite some struggles over the last week, they have enough talented power hitters in the lineup to go off on just about any pitcher in baseball.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton | Sneaky Bat: Joey Gallo

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

C Salvador Perez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

3B Alec Bohm | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

1B/3B/OF Brad Miller | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

Garcia has four HRs this season, and three of those have been hit at home where he has posted a strong .228 ISO. Across his career, Garcia has consistently shown positive reverse splits so the righty-on-righty match-up with Heasley is not a real concern. It’s not a significant sample size, but Heasley has not pitched well against RHBs in the majors so there could be a “poor reverse pitching splits versus positive reverse hitting splits” situation working in favor of Adolis Garcia in this match-up. In 27 PA against RHBs last season, Heasley allowed a .375 AVG, .458 wOBA, and.250 ISO with a huge 47.8% HardContact%. On a small slate where home runs may be hard to come by, let’s see if the Rangers clean-up man can go yard this evening!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Taylor Hearn UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts | -128 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Hearn has failed to throw more than four strikeouts in three of his five starts this season and he’s accounted for a below average 9.5% Swinging Strike Rate. Tonight, he’s matched up with a Royals team that may not be great, but they also don’t strikeout often at the plate with just a 19.0% kRate vs. LHPs this season (3rd lowest). Hearn has a good chance to cover about five innings in this game but I would not expect him to punch out many hitters via the strikeout so let’s take a shot on him throwing four Ks or fewer.

No other bets today. We’ll be back at it tomorrow for a huge Friday slate of games!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!