Top MLB DFS Plays 5/12 | It's a Cole World Out There!

May 12, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Another sizeable midweek main slate heads our way with ten games on deck for this evening. Things are pretty balanced today with a couple of aces due up as Gerrit Cole and Brandon Woodruff will toe the rubber, some viable value arms are available to open up salary for more premium bats, several offenses have some strong pitching match-ups, and there is no Coors Field to worry about! Also, it’s looking like the weather will cooperate as well, with only a couple of games that have low chances of experiencing a delay. Time to get after it again so LETSGOOOO!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

OAK @ BOS: Very minor chance of rain falling pregame that brings a low level threat of a late start. Wouldn’t worry much about it at all.

TOR @ ATL: Similar story here with a low chance of a passing shower. Nothing overly threatening but a late start or in-game delay is sliiiiightly more of a probability in Atlanta than in Boston.

LAA @ HOU: Minute Maid Park roof status: CLOSED (reportedly).

MIA @ ARI: Chase Field Roof status: OPEN (reportedly). Temps in Phoenix will be 90-95 degrees throughout this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $12k | @ TB

No surprise here, right? If you’re spending up at pitcher, Cole and Brandon Woodruff (DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k) are your two premium, safest options. I suspect many will play both guys in their cash (and some GPP) lineups on DraftKings. Considering how baseball has been trending as more of a “pitcher’s league” up to this point in the season, I wouldn’t blame you for taking the “double ace” route on DK. Cole is coming off of his worst start of the season against Houston but, even then, he didn’t exactly implode. He only allowed two runs (both solo shot HRs) on five hits. He simply just didn’t accumulate his usual amount of strikeouts as he only racked up four Ks across 7.0 innings. However, Houston has had the lowest kRate (19.7%) in the league against RHPs so I really don’t see that performance as being a cause for concern. Cole still comes into today with a massive 40.2% kRate, 14.9% SwStr%, 1.61 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, and 0.72 WHIP. He’ll go up against a decent Rays offense (99 wRC+ vs. RHPs) that strikes out 24.9% of the time against righties (11th most). Tropicana Field has also been the 3rd most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season in terms of adjusted run factor and the Yanks are huge -196 favorites. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball but ya really can’t go wrong with either Cole or Woodruff today.

Julio Urias (LHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. SEA

Urias wasn’t on his ‘A-game’ in his previous start against the Angels but draws a strong bounce-back opportunity today. He pitched an absolute gem against Seattle back on April 20th when he went 7.0 innings on 88 pitches and racked up 11 Ks while allowing just two base runners (1 H, 1 BB). Can he channel that same energy today? While Urias’ 27.2% kRate is solid, his 13.7% SwStr% is borderline elite and he’s allowing less than a base runner per inning with a 0.98 WHIP. The Mariners have struggled against southpaws this season -- their 83 wRC+ ranks 24th and their 29.5% kRate is the 4th highest mark in baseball. They’re also producing just a 25.5% HardHit% against LHPs (4th lowest) and Urias is typically a master at limiting hard hit baseballs. He’ll be a worthy pivot off of the potential Cole/Woodruff chalk.

Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | @ ATL

Sadly, it is time for me to pick on my Braves again. Atlanta has been horrendous against lefties this season and possesses just a 59 wRC+, .185 AVG, and .256 wOBA vs. LHPs. All of those numbers rank them 29th in the league ahead of only the Detroit Tigers. On top of that, they’re striking out 28.6% of the time (vs. LHPs) which is the 5th highest kRate -- their 26.5% HardHit% (vs. LHPs) is the 5th lowest. I don’t expect the Braves to be this terrible against lefties all season, but when facing a solid pitcher like Ryu, I wouldn’t be shocked if their struggles continue. In 102 plate appearances against Ryu, the current Braves roster is hitting just .172 against him. Ryu tends to provide a decent floor, having scored at least 15 DKFP/25 FDFP in 5-of-6 starts this season and, despite having respectable numbers, I believe he is underperforming considerably on the season.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ Not really seeing any “can’t miss” stacks today but the Red Sox and Dodgers are in two of the better spots today and I’m seeing quite a bit of love heading their way.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. TBD, MIA

With Trevor Rogers’ start being pushed back to tomorrow, there is no confirmed Marlins SP at the time of this writing so we may be looking at a bullpen game here. The D-Backs have been a top 10 offense on the season and they move up to being a top five offense when playing at home. When playing at Chase Field, Arizona is rocking a team .360 wOBA (ranks 3rd), .207 ISO (4th), 125 wRC+ (4th), 39.1% HardHit% (1st), and average 6.15 runs/gm (3rd best home splits). They’re coming off of an 11 run performance last night and with the rood open once again at Chase Field with 90+ degree temps, I love their upside once again.

Chicago White Sox vs. JA Happ (LHP), MIN

The White Sox always fall within stack consideration when facing a lefty. They were the number one offense against LHPs last year and nothing has really changed this season. Their .368 wOBA, .378 OBP, and 141 wRC+ vs. LHPs all rank 1st in baseball and they don’t strike out very much either with a 21.4% kRate. Happ is having a decent enough year on the surface and even pushed for a no-hitter bid a few weeks ago. But despite his low 1.91 ERA, he holds a pretty awful 5.39 xFIP and 14.7% kRate. The .171 BABIP against him is also completely unsustainable. The current White Sox roster is hitting just under .300 against Happ in 75 plate appearances and I imagine there is a strong chance they can get a good amount of runs up on the board today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Detroit Tigers vs. Danny Duffy (LHP), KC

This is nothing more than hoping to catch a bad offense that has somehow managed to find a spark as of late. Since May 4th, the Tigers have averaged 6.7 runs over their six games and rank second in the MLB with a 134 wRC+ in that span. They’re still really, really struggling against lefties on the season and have a pathetic 39 wRC+ vs. southpaws (easily ranks dead last) so Duffy could easily shut their hot streak down in a hurry. But if you’re someone who plays 20+ lineups, I’d maybe throw around 5-10% exposure towards some three, maybe four-man, Tiger stack and you’d easily be double/triple the field in terms of ownership leverage.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dallas Kuechel (LHP), CWS

Cruz has definitely not been paying off his lofty salaries lately but he has some pretty powerful BvP history working in his favor. In 58 career plate appearances, Cruz has homered off of Kuechel five times while batting .327 with a .446 wOBA. Decent chance he breaks out of his eight game HR-less slump today.

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

Kaprielian is looking to draw a spot start for the A’s shorthanded rotation today. This 27 y/o RHP has just 3.2 IP at the MLB level and honestly doesn’t have a ton of minor league experience under his belt either (right around 100 innings pitched across multiple minor league levels). I’m not sure he goes much further than around three innings in this game but Verdugo is pretty much a plug and play guy regardless of who the A’s have out there. Verdugo is hitting for a crisp .300 AVG on the year and does bring some pop to the table with four homers to his name in 2021. He’s typically a solid fantasy floor option while hitting second in the Red Sox order which provides him with plenty of runs scored opportunities with guys like Bogaerts, JD Martinez, and Devers slugging away behind him.

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

It’s hard to find a clean-up hitter with as much upside as Soler who also happens to be dirt cheap in DFS formats. Sure, he is a little streaky and is only hitting .200 on the season. But when he gets in his groove, he’s an extremely valuable DFS asset. After coming through with a six RBI game yesterday (3-run HR + 3 RBI double) perhaps he can keep the momentum rolling against Casey Mize today, who has been very mediocre this year. Also, that Detroit bullpen is awful and we just saw them blow a 7-0 lead against this Royals squad last night.

3B Travis Shaw | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. John Gant (RHP), STL

Shaw is another cheap veteran bat who should be hitting clean-up today and won’t need to do a whole lot to return value. He’s hit five homers this season in just 31 games and is creating a solid 42.0% Hard Contact Rate. John Gant has a terrible 6.31 xFIP and 1.85 WHIP versus LHBs this season. Shaw has also hit 5-for-12 (.417) against Gant with a homer in his career.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/OF/SS Josh Rojas | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. TBD, MIA

Again, we’re not entirely sure yet who Miami is rolling out on the mound today but I’m on board with Rojas going yard regardless. Among hitters with at least 30 plate appearances over the last two weeks, Rojas is boasting a .522 wOBA, .405 ISO, and 231 wRC+ -- all of three figures rank second in the MLB in that span. He has also produced a 54.8% HardHit% in that stretch as well while blasting four homers. With the roof at Chase Field open and 90-95 degree temperatures in Phoenix, if he gets under one, I think it goes over the fence. Acuna went yard for me yesterday so let’s see if we can get a two-day streak goin’!

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