Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 5/11 & 5/12: Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Dan

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Strange slate today. We have a loaded top tier of pitching but then there are a lot of question marks. There are a couple pitchers being called up to make spot starts, one has barely any experience. We aren't totally sure yet who's pitching for Texas (though we think we know). Of the eight games tonight, three of them currently don't have Vegas lines yet. Here’s a look at all the games:

Despite a bunch of unknowns on the Vegas side, the good news is weather doesn't look to be an issue. There's no rain in the forecast for any of these games. Mild temperatures across the board so no advantage or disadvantage there. The only possible red flag as of now is potential double-digit winds blowing in at Minnesota but it's too early to tell.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (DK: $11K, FD: $11.3K) | RHP | NYM vs. MIA

In the top tier tonight we have three studs who could all be considered as solid options. Depending on the types of contests you are playing, you could make a case for each of these guys. deGrom stands out as the cash game option in a match up against the Marlins. After a brief injury scare, he appeared to be back to normal in his last outing (despite being out dueled by Chris Paddock). In 2018, the eventual Cy Young Award winner threw 217 innings with a 2.78 SIERA, 0.91 WHIP, 32.3% strikeouts, and just 5.5% walks. This season has been a bit up and down so far. He started off strong with two wins and two consecutive games of at least double-digit strikeouts but then followed it up with three consecutive losses, never making it past five innings. After getting his elbow checked out, his last two starts have mostly seen him returning back to form after going seven innings in each of them, allowing a combined two earned runs, and striking out six and seven respectively. Even better, earlier this season, he faced the Marlins (his opponent today) and threw seven innings of shut out ball and struck out a whooping 14 batters. The Marlins are unlikely to have an answer for deGrom today either, with their horrendous .264 wOBA, .092 ISO, and 26.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you're playing cash today, deGrom is your option. If you're playing tournaments, he's still the top option, just be aware that Cole and Scherzer both have the ability to match his ceiling but for less cost and ownership today.

Anthony DeSclafani (DK: $9.2K, FD: $9K) | RHP | CIN @ SF

I'm thinking this mid-tier of viable pitching options could go overlooked today with the majority of the field paying up for one of the big three and then probably going cheap with their SP2. One potential way to differentiate ourselves in larger tournaments is to stick to the mid-tier for pitching or pay up for your SP1 and then use the mid-tier for SP2 (on two pitcher sites obviously) and find some cheap stacks to utilize. You can't ask for a much better match up for DeSclafani who has historically been much better on the road than at home (unsurprisingly considering how hitter friendly Great American Ballpark is.) He also typically struggles with left-handed hitters (5.69 xFIP, 1.81 WHIP, 12.9% walks this season) but that will be mitigated in the least hitter friendly park for left-handed power in baseball. Aside from the issues with lefties, his overall numbers continue to be strong. He finished 2018 with a 3.96 SIERA in 115 innings pitched and has a 3.86 SIERA in 37 innings this season. The big question is - are you buying the strikeout upside he's showing? Last season, he was average at best, with 22.3% strikeouts. This year, he's smoking his opponents with a 28.5% strikeout rate including two consecutive starts of eight strikeouts or more (one of which was against this same Giants team). The downside, of course, is he just faced this team less than a week ago, which is always an advantage to the offense. But the weak Giants lineup (.270 wOBA, .164 ISO, 23.3% strikeouts against right-handed pitching) doesn't concern me.

Kevin Gausman (DK: $7.8K, FD: $7.3K) | RHP | ATL @ ARI

Gausman has the best floor/ceiling combo, in my opinion, in the value tier tonight (I know, I know - that's not saying much). The 4.13 SIERA and 1.25 WHIP are not terrible even though we'd ideally want someone slightly lower in both categories. The walks are up this season, to 9.9% (6.5% last season) but the strikeout rate is also up, which makes him intriguing from an upside perspective. Last season, Gausman had a 19.1% strikeout rate in 183 innings pitched. This year he has a 26.4% strikeout rate in 36 innings pitched. Similar to Desclafani, the question is do we believe the strikeouts are real or just some early season luck? What really caught my attention with Gausman is his performance against left-handed hitters so far: 3.59 xFIP, 32% strikeouts, 47.4% ground ball rate, and a .287 wOBA allowed. Arizona is a squad that can go very left-handed heavy when needed, so this could actually play into Gausman's strengths. He already faced them once this season, on April 17th, and had his best outing of the year, going seven innings, allowing just three hits, two earned runs, and striking out ten.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Today is a Coors slate. Both of those teams are very much in play for stacking. Given the other games and Vegas lines, I'm assuming Coors will be very popular today. I'm going to look at some more less obvious stacks:

Minnesota Twins vs Gregory Soto (LHP – Detroit Tigers)

Truth be told, we have very little on Gregory Soto. It's also still not 100% guaranteed he will pitch today but every report is suggesting that he'll get the nod for the second game of this double-header. He's pitched only 13.1 innings above High-A in his career. His numbers are solid this season between High-A and Double-A. He's pitched 17.1 innings and has a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 17:6 K:BB. But I can't stress enough, only 13.1 innings above High-A. To make the jump all the way to the Majors for a spot start is asking a lot. It's even worse when it's to face the first place Minnesota Twins, who currently hold the best record in baseball. There's a ton of power in this lineup, especially against left-handed pitching. Polanco (.439 wOBA, .305 ISO), Cruz (.378 wOBA, .259 ISO), Schoop (.362 wOBA, .241 ISO), and Rosario (.342 wOBA, .331 ISO) all carry strong floors and ceilings. Kepler isn't ideal with the lefty vs lefty but it's hard to argue with a .342 wOBA and .230 ISO this season. Best part about stacking the Twins? They have great catchers. Garver (.473 wOBA, .385 ISO) and Castro (.404 wOBA, .341 ISO) are both excellent options at the position as part of stacks or as one offs.

Houston Astros vs. Drew Smyly/Texas Opener

The Texas pitching situation is a little unclear today but from what I'm reading they are planning to go with an opener, either Jurado or Chavez, and then bring in Smyly as the primary pitcher to take the bulk of the innings. All of this should be good news for the Astros. Jurado was a DFS punching bag for much of last season and has been a mediocre starter in the minors this season. Chavez has served some long relief duty but isn't stretched out enough to go past a couple of innings. Plus, he has a 1.90 WHIP in 17.1 innings this season. One of them will then make way for Smyly, who is 0-2 in five starts with a 4.81 xFIP. To his credit, he does have a 26.7% strikeout rate, but also a 1.74 WHIP and 13.3% walk rate. He's allowing 41.5% fly balls, a 58.5% hard contact rate, and 2.37 HR/9. The usual suspects: Springer (.416 wOBA, .322 ISO), Brantley (.414 wOBA, .262 ISO), Bregman (.396 wOBA, .282 ISO), Correa (.386 wOBA, .282 ISO), and Altuve (.338 wOBA, .231 ISO) are all very much in play here. I'd be comfortable stacking anyone that makes this lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Brad Keller (RHP - Kansas City Royals)

I prefer the Phillies at home but I'll settle for them on the road against Brad Keller who's been pretty awful so far this season. He has a 5.45 SIERA and 1.39 WHIP, with only 17.5% strikeouts to 13.7% walks. Regression is going to hit Keller hard considering his respectable 3.99 ERA but then a SIERA that is over a run higher. He also has incredibly low BABIP against left-handed hitters at only .190. I don't expect that to last much longer. Outside of Coors, this game has one of the higher totals of the day with a nine O/U. Harper (.365 wOBA, .237 ISO) and Hoskins (.428 wOBA, .331 ISO) are two of my favorite bats on the board today. McCutchen (.338 wOBA), Hernandez (.340 wOBA), and Realmuto (.327 wOBA) are all fine options though they carry less power and upside.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Jose Altuve (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.8K) | 2B | HOU vs. TEX

Altuve is still too cheap. It doesn't matter how cold he is right now, he's Jose Altuve. He could break out of it at any moment and you don't want to be caught holding the bag when he goes off at this price tag. The Astros have a great match up today no matter who ends up pitching for Texas. He has a .342 wOBA, .229 ISO, and .801 OPS so far this season despite the recent cold streak. The most important part here is to just be sure he makes the lineup, as he's currently listed as day to day with "hamstring discomfort".

Ryan O'Hearn (DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.7K) | 1B | KCR vs. PHI

Eflin has always struggled with left-handed hitting and this season is starting off no different. In 2018, he had a 4.32 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 40.7% fly ball rate, and a .355 wOBA allowed. Early 2019 is trending very similarly, including a 4.96 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 44% fly balls, and a .356 wOBA allowed. This makes O'Hearn a nice potential salary saver today. He has a .714 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games against right-handed pitching. In the last two weeks he has a 50% hard contact rate with an average exit velocity of 94.5 mph.

Yuli Gurriel (DK: $3.5K, FD: $2.8K) | 1B/3B | HOU vs. TEX

Another possible salary saver tonight is Gurriel, who is heating up with two double-digit fantasy point games in his last three, and three out of his last seven games. His overall numbers don't jump out at you but the recent fantasy production is promising. In the last two weeks, he has 42.1% hard contact, a 93.9 mph average exit velocity, and an average distance of 254.8 feet. He's seeing the ball well right now, he's inexpensive, he has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, and he's in a great match up today.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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