By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

It’s officially 'Hump Day' and we’ve got some all-day baseball going on, which is never a bad thing! Looking towards this evening’s main slate, seven games will appear on the docket. It’ll be a quiet night on the west coast with the latest game on the schedule (KC @ TEX) beginning at 8:05 ET, so no late night hammer pitchers or stacks today. I guess that’s not overly noteworthy but I found it to be a bit strange. Anyhow, current indications set this up as a fairly balanced slate with both decent pitching and hitting/stack options, so let’s see what we can cook up today!

Also, REID DETMERS THREW A NO HITTER AGAINST THE RAYS LAST NIGHT! Yes, Reid Detmers, the 22-year-old kid who has only 51.2 IP to his name at the MLB level. Gotta love baseball!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There will be one potential trouble spot to keep an eye on (HOU @ MIN). Otherwise, we’ve got a fairly worry-free weather slate on our hands.

TB @ LAA (7:07 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to center/right at 15 mph.

BOS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8 O/U): 81 degrees at first pitch.

HOU @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Here’s the tricky spot. Scattered thunderstorms are going to be popping off around Minnesota today. They may end up avoiding trouble entirely, but the risk certainly looks to increase towards the middle/latter half of the game. We’ll have a better idea of how things will play out closer to lock but, for the sake of this newsletter, there is enough risk involved here to where I’ll choose not to mention any players from this game. But, again, check the forecast later before entirely nixing this game off your radar. It is tied for the slate lead with an 8.5 O/U so it would suck to lose the bats in this one.

BAL @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Another hot evening in St. Louis with 85-90 degree temperatures all game. Bump to bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10k | @ WAS

Megill has impressed in his sophomore season and he’s worked his way to a 4-1 record behind a 2.43 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 27.3% kRate, and he’s holding opponents to just a .233 wOBA and has allowed only two home runs in 33.1 IP (0.54 HR/9). Megill has posted an excellent 13.3% Swinging Strike Rate but I would like to see him increase his 15% Called Strike% -- if he does that, there is legitimate 8-to-10 strikeout upside for him this evening. Despite their typically hitter-friendly ballpark, Washington has been strangely awful at home where they’re averaging an MLB-worst 2.21 runs/gm. Against RHPs at home, they’re striking out 24.9% of the time and hitting only .201 with a .243 wOBA, .092 ISO, and 53 wRC+ -- they rank dead last in the MLB across those final three categories. Megill is going to be one of the tougher starters they’ve faced at home this season and Vegas is giving the Mets heavy -184 odds on the moneyline while the Nationals carry a meager 3.5 implied run total.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. TB

In an ongoing trend, DraftKings continues to price Ohtani (the pitcher) towards the middle of the pack among the slate’s starters while FanDuel has him atop the pitcher salary hierarchy. Due to his insane strikeout upside (38% kRate, 17.5% SwStr%, 37.7% CSW%), I’d say FanDuel has the more appropriate salary pinned on Ohtani today. Of course, the Rays left Angel Stadium last night with their tail between their legs after getting no-hit by a 22-year-old kid. On the season, they’ve been strong against RHPs (114 wRC+, ranks 5th) but their 25.9% kRate is also the third-highest kRate in the majors. Ohtani is not immune to having some blowup innings and those 15 mph winds blowing out in the stadium tonight are slightly concerning. But based on his advanced stats, like his incredible 1.55 xFIP and 1.84 SIERA, Ohtani is far more likely to succeed than he is to fall flat. He’s going to be mega chalk, especially on DraftKings, but Tampa Bay currently has a slate-low 3.2 implied run total. If the red-hot Manuel Margot (hamstring) continues to sit, this Rays lineup will look even more beatable.

Update: No Margot for the Rays again tonight.

Joey Wentz (LHP), DET | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.8k | vs. OAK

There is not a lot to love down towards the bottom of the pitcher pricing today but at these salaries, Wentz is going to at least intrigue me, particularly as an SP2 GPP play on DraftKings. He makes his MLB debut tonight and will probably have a fairly short leash -- perhaps around 75-80 pitches. In five starts in Triple-A (19.2 IP) this year, he has recorded an impressive 33.8% kRate, however, that is paired with a not-so-stellar 4.12 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 1.83 HR/9 Rate, and 13% Walk Rate. He is cheap enough to where, if he allows some hits and two or three runs, then so be it. The strikeout potential is really what we’re after. The A’s hold one of the highest kRates against LHPs this season at 27.2% (fourth-highest) and there is nothing spectacular about their .209 AVG, .283 wOBA, and 92 wRC+ either. The fact that a debuting rookie is on the mound for Detroit and yet they’re still slight -125 favorites while the A’s possess only a 3.4 implied run total is quite telling. Things could go south for Wentz in a hurry and he isn’t likely to pitch more than five innings, but at the very least he does bring that strikeout potential to the table and he’ll be making his debut at home in the (typically) pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.

Also Consider:

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.3k | @ LAA

Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.6k | vs. BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

Yeah, so this stack didn’t work out tremendously well for us yesterday but ya gotta have a short memory when it comes to MLB DFS. The warm 85-90 degree temperatures at Busch Stadium make this arguably the best hitting environment on the slate. While the Cardinals do struggle against RHPs, they are a bit better at home. They’ll face off against RHP Spenser Watkins whose 5.09 xFIP and 5.30 SIERA rank him last among the slate’s starters. Watkins is also a poor reverse splits pitcher (vs. RHBs: 6.11 xFIP, .450 wOBA, 1.75 WHIP, 2.25 HR/9) so perhaps that will relieve some of the concerns that exist around the Cardinals and their RHB-heavy lineup. The Baltimore bullpen can also provide some decent match-ups for Cardinal hitters as their 4.12 xFIP over the last two weeks represents the ninth-worst mark in that span.

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Juan Yepez, Paul Goldshmidt | Sneaky Bat: Harrison Bader

New York Mets vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Tonight will be the sixth time the Mets and Nationals have faced off this season. The five previous games have all been played at Nationals Park. While the Mets haven’t necessarily ‘crushed’ in any one of those games, they’ve been super solid. As a team, against the Nationals this season they’re hitting .282 with a .386 OBP, .355 wOBA, and 135 wRC+ while averaging 4.6 runs/gm. Again, not insane numbers, but pretty good stuff by current dead ball era standards. Aaron Sanchez is one of the lowest quality starters on the mound today. His 8.56 ERA is easily the worst on the slate, though he hasn’t been as bad as his ERA would indicate given his fairly “okay” 3.89 xFIP. Regardless, he’s still putting runners on base and he’s getting hit extremely hard with an average exit velocity of 95.5 mph. The Mets have also been great against RHPs on the season with a 124 wRC+ (ranks 3rd). The Nationals bullpen has not been overly sharp so, once Sanchez is off the mound, the Mets should still see some favorable match-ups.

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo | Sneaky Bat: Luis Guillorme

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

The lefty Logue will be making only his second MLB start today. He wasn’t exactly sharp in his four starts in Triple-A before being called up (16.0 IP, 5.63 ERA, 6.46 xFIP, 1.81 WHIP, 2.81 HR/9) and there’s not much overwhelmingly positive to say about his 6.1 IP in the MLB. He did hold the Twins to two runs across five innings in his start last Friday but he also gave up a pair of home runs and he has allowed a 57.2% Fly Ball Rate with a 94 mph average exit velocity. Believe it or not, the Tigers are a borderline top 10 offense against LHPs -- their 106 wRC+ ranks 11th. They have a great .266 AVG vs. LHPs (ranks 3rd) but a general lack of power (.082 ISO, ranks 29th) has deflated any significant upside. They have a ton of righty bats they can deploy against Logue today and if the Tigers manage to do damage to him early, they’ll bat the remaining innings against a mediocre A’s bullpen.

Favorite DET Bats: Javy Baez, Jeimer Candelario, Austin Meadows | Sneaky Bat: Jonathan Schoop

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), WAS

SS/2B Javy Baez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

C Sean Murphy | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Austin Hays | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

C MJ Melendez | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Matt Bush (RHP), TEX

OF/1B Juan Yepez | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

OF/3B/SS Willi Castro | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2k | vs. Zach Logue (LHP), OAK

2B/OF Eli White | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Gabe Speier (LHP), KC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF/1B Juan Yepez | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

It’s time! The Chosen Juan, Juan “The Yep Man” Yepez, Juan “The Human Rake” Yepez, whatever nickname works for you, just know that this man can hit! In the first six MLB games of his career, Yepez has accumulated a .450 AVG, .523 wOBA, and .273 ISO alongside a 250 wRC+. He mashed his first career home run on Sunday against Giants RHP Jakob Junis. The man told his mom before the game that he was going to hit his first home run for her on Mother's Day, and he did it! What's not to love about that?

Before being called up, Yepez had a .372 ISO and nine HRs in only 22 games in Triple-A this season. He’ll face RHP Spenser Watkins today who has shown poor reverse splits (vs. RHBs: 6.11 xFIP, .450 wOBA, 1.75 WHIP, 2.25 HR/9) which is a nice plus for the right-handed hitting Juan Yepez. Temperatures are up in the 80s and low 90s in St. Louis today, so it should certainly be a nice spot for Yepez to knock out his second home run of the season!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Runs Scored | +105 (DraftKings/MGM) | 2.0 Units

Alonso has scored at least one run in five of his last six games, as well as four of the five games against Washington this season. Whether it’s via a hit or a walk, Alonso is getting on base seemingly every other plate appearance lately. He has a monstrous .556 OBP over the last week and the guys behind him have been very good at batting him in (that is, unless he simply goes yard and scores the run himself). As mentioned in the stack section, the Mets have been solid against Washington this season and the Nationals will be rolling out Aaron Sanchez on the mound today, who brings an 8.56 ERA to the mound along with him.

Shane McClanahan OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | -102 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

In McClanahan’s six starts this season, he has recorded at least seven strikeouts five times. The only time he hasn't reached the seven strikeout mark was in his last start where he only accounted for five strikeouts against the Mariners, who are fairly stingy when it comes to striking out against LHPs (21.2% kRate, 10th lowest). The Angels offense is clicking on all cylinders right now but they still have a fairly high 23.8% kRate vs. LHPs (12th highest), including an even loftier 29% kRate over the last week (4th highest). McClanahan’s biggest hurdle has been the short leash he’s attached to when it comes to his pitch count. The good news is he has thrown at least 86 pitches in his last three starts. Given his elite 36.7% kRate and 16.4% Swinging Strike Rate, I like McClanahan to throw at least seven Ks in this game tonight. Getting this prop at close to even money odds when it has hit in 5-of-6 of McClanahan’s 2022 starts sticks out as nice value.

Update: Also, no Mike Trout (15.2% kRate vs. LHPs) in the lineup tonight, so that helps!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!