Top MLB DFS Plays 5/11 | A Dozen Games On Deck!

May 11, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Every team is taking the field today and a dozen games will fall onto the main slate docket. By now, you guys know the deal with these kinda slates -- there are endless ways to go about attacking slates this size. While there aren’t many ‘can’t miss’ aces taking the mound, pitching is quite strong today even when you dip down closer to the bottom of the salary hierarchy. This will make nailing our batters and stacks correctly a bit more difficult, but there are some offenses primed for huge days. Let’s get it, guys!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Overall, for a 12-game slate, the forecasts are relatively quiet and there is a strong chance all twelve games play nine innings today. Still, we have some areas to monitor.

OAK @ BOS: Winds blowing OUT to right but cooler gametime temps in the 50s will pretty much counteract any benefit to hitters.

TOR @ ATL: Could see some scattered pop-up storms in the Atlanta area this evening which may cause some sort of delay if one makes its way over the park. I’d definitely expect they get nine innings in, so offenses appear fine. Starting pitchers slightly risky.

MIN @ CWS: Chilly temps in the 40s. Pitchers get a slight boost. The low 7.5 run O/U makes sense here.

LAA @ HOU: Roof scheduled to be CLOSED.

MIA @ ARI: Roof scheduled to be OPEN. Temps in Phoenix will once again be around 90 degrees throughout the game.

SD @ COL: For the second day in a row, Coors Field will be the primary game location to monitor. The forecast definitely isn’t as ugly as yesterday, though. Rainstorms will be around in the afternoon and could bleed over into the first hour or so of the scheduled game time before fading away. After having to postpone yesterday, I’d look for them to get this game in. However, it seems pretty likely that they’ll need to implement a fairly lengthy late start. Also, can’t completely rule out a PPD, but seems unlikely.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Walker Buehler (RHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. SEA

John Means (DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k) is having a great year and is coming off that near perfect game no-hitter, but I just think I won't personally pay that sort of premium for him today. In terms of fantasy scoring, Buehler has been the more consistent option and he has yet to have really tapped into his true upside. Buehler has allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season and leads the slate with a 2.99 xFIP. The strikeout rate has been above average (26.9% kRate) but it is down a bit from his 28.4% career kRate. I do see some double-digit K potential today as he takes on a Seattle offense whose 25.4% kRate vs. RHPs in the 8th highest in baseball. The Dodgers have lost in Buehler’s previous three starts but they’re the heaviest favorites on today’s slate (-230), Seattle holds just a 2.9 implied run total and considering Buehler has pitched no less than six innings in any start this season, he has a great chance at earning those win/quality start fantasy point bonuses.

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $8.6k | vs. STL

Barring someone coming through with another random no-hitter, you could argue that Peralta has the most upside of any pitcher on the slate. He’s rocking a massive slate-best 40.8% kRate on the season and is holding opponents to a .162 AVG while limited his Hard Contact Rate allowed to just 29.3%. His main issue is stemming from giving up free bases. He’s averaging a 4.78 BB/9 Rate (13.1% BB%) which trails only the powerful but erratic arm of Shohei Ohtani (9.16 BB/9, 22.6% BB%) on the slate. If he can show a bit more command of his pitches, he should be a great option today against St. Louis. The Cardinals are winning plenty of games and have the second best record in baseball (21-14) but, as a whole, their offense has rated out as a below average unit with an 89 wRC+ vs. RHPs and they strike out a fair amount (23.8% kRate vs. RHPs).

Brady Singer (RHP) | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.8k | @ DET

For the salaries, he’s more of an SP2 pitching option on DK (and should be popular in that regard) but I wouldn’t actively rule him out on FanDuel either. If you’re looking back at Singer’s previous two appearances, you wouldn’t be impressed. But his April 30th outing was essentially just a two-inning bullpen session as he was used cautiously following a minor heel injury. Following that, his start on May 5th against Cleveland was going well by all means through four innings or so. Unfortunately, Singer fell victim to some absolutely horrendous umpiring by the infamous Angel Hernandez which led to some unworthy baserunners and, eventually, a couple of additional “earned” runs against him. I was watching the game at the time and the events that occurred also just took Singer completely out of his groove and he was pulled from the game soon after. But I’d look for him to bounce back today. For a pitcher with these low sort of salaries, he’s posting strong numbers: 29.0 IP, 3.41 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 23.6% kRate, 26.3% Hard Contact Rate Allowed. And, as if anyone needs a reminder, despite some recent production in their last few games Detroit is not a good offense (88 wRC+ vs. RHPs) and they strike out plenty (28.0% kRate vs. RHPs).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ Working under the assumption that the game plays, Coors Field bats (the Padres in particular) should carry the typical upside. Behind them, I like a lot of those Nationals bats going up against Chase Anderson.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), ATL

Toronto averaged 8.7 runs/gm versus my Braves across a three game sweep a couple of weeks ago. Given, that was in the super hitter-friendly ballpark in Dunedin, FL but Truist Park in Atlanta has been a top 10 ballpark for hitters this season as well. He probably only pitches three or four innings, five max, but Bryse Wilson has been pretty terrible in his “extended opener” role up to this point. He holds a 6.75 ERA, 5.97 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, and is allowing a massive .432 wOBA and 8.9% Barrel Rate. The Braves bullpen should see a considerable workload as well and they’ve been blown up plenty this season and allow the third highest HR/9 Rate of any relief unit in baseball. It pains me to say it, but Toronto is in a pretty strong spot here today.

Kansas City Royals vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

Boyd has pitched his way to a quality 2.27 ERA this season but that is thinly veiled by a poor 4.95 xFIP and below average 4.67 SIERA. I just don’t see him consistently holding offenses to less than two or three runs like he has been, especially when he’s only striking out 17.3% of hitters and producing just a 33.3% Ground Ball Rate. Boyd also has some poor BvP history going against him. In 214 plate appearances against this current KC roster, they’re hitting .335 with a .389 wOBA and just a 15.0% kRate against him. The Royals haven’t necessarily crushed lefty pitching this season (79 wRC+, ranks 26th) but they should be rolling out seven RHBs and their 20.1% kRate versus southpaws is the 6th lowest in the league. After Boyd is retired from the mound, he’ll be backed up by what may be the worst bullpen in the MLB -- bottom five at best.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Houston Astros vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA

Every baseball fan is pretty amazed at the two-way ability that Shohei Ohtani possesses. He’s doing things both on the mound and at the plate simultaneously that literally, only Babe Ruth has done throughout baseball history. But, as I briefly mentioned above when highlighting Freddy Peralta, Ohtani is struggling MASSIVELY with his command of the plate. His 22.6% Walk Rate is by far the worst mark on the slate and also the worst among routine starting pitchers this season. He’s only allowing hitters a .111 AVG, .261 wOBA, and is striking out an impressive 35.7% of batters. But if he’s giving guys free bases, it just takes one big swing of the bat for things to go south on him real quick-like. I don’t think there’s a high possibility the Astros blow him up, but the chances aren’t zero!

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

After a stint on the IL with a shoulder injury, Soto now has three games under his belt since his return and should begin to get back to his usual dominant ways sooner rather than later. A match-up with Chase Anderson can certainly help speed that process up a bit.

SS Miguel Rojas | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

Rojas got a day off yesterday but I’d expect him back in the lineup tonight. He’s been scorching hot over his last seven games, hitting .440 with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs while creating 50.0% Hard Contact. He has also crushed lefties this season to the tune of a .378 AVG, .459 wOBA, and 196 wRC+.

OF Trent Grisham | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Pitcher TBD, COL

The Rockies haven’t announced a starter at the time of this writing but I’m not sure if it really matters. Grisham provides a solid DFS floor nearly every game he plays and gets the benefit of batting right beside Fernando Tatis Jr. (DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.7k) which always makes for a high upside two-man mini-stack, especially at Coors Field. DraftKings is also doing this thing this season where they almost seem to forget to price up some of the visiting Coors Field bats, so Grisham at $4,300 on DK feels like a steal. Again, make sure they plan on playing this game after the rain clears.

OF Justin Upton | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

Upton is super affordable and should hit in the heart of this Angels order. He’s knocked out a couple of dingers over his last four games and carries some nice BvP history against McCullers -- .353 AVG in 18 PA with a homer.

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (LHP), STL

Taylor is basically free, should bat no lower than third in the order, and has a .444 AVG and 240 wRC+ against lefties this season (small 18 AB sample size, though). A hit + run + RBI or something along those lines and he pretty much returns 4x value at these salaries. He does have some decent power too with a .212 ISO on the season and three homers in just 52 ABs.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

Acuna has gone five games without hitting a dinger. Someone fire up the “he’s due” alert. Robbie Ray is allowing a slate high 91.9 mph average exit velocity this season along with a 48.7% HardHit% and 38.5% Fly Ball Rate. He’s putting up pretty strong fantasy numbers this season and has managed not to implode in any 2021 start to date, but I’m not buying into the belief that he can just keep rolling along without eventually getting shelled. Acuna has a couple of HRs already against Robbie Ray in just nine career PAs against him, so I’ll look for Acuna to hit his third bomb off of him at Truist Park tonight.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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