Top MLB DFS Plays 5/10 | Small Slates = Big Wins 💰

May 10, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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New week, new money ladies and gents! We kick off the work week with a bit of a peculiar slate -- and keep in mind that this one will start up a bit earlier than usual with the first game scheduled for 6:35 ET! On the surface, it’s perhaps a slate only a DFS degenerate could love (hey, that’s me!). With just five* games on deck and most teams running through the middle or bottom of their rotations, the options at pitcher are pretty suspect, to put it lightly. But, a few offenses are in juicy spots, and from personal experience, these smaller ‘wildcard’ slates have been very profitable for me in the past. I know many others also prefer these kinds of slates over massive 14-game behemoths. Let’s see if we can make some Monday magic happen!

*UPDATE: Coors Field game between the Padres and Rockies has been postponed.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

SD @ COL: Rain and possibly snow in the area all night. Temps around 40 degrees. Clearly, this would be miserable weather for both the players and the fans. It’s not guaranteed to be postponed, but I’d probably expect a PPD announcement to come shortly. For the purposes of this newsletter, I won’t be mentioning any players from this game. But if it does play, even in sub-optimal conditions, you can obviously still go here for bats.

UPDATE: The game has been postponed. We get that headache out of the way early. Nice!

LAA @ HOU: Roof at Minute Maid Park is scheduled to be CLOSED. - Note: I'm not entirely sure how reliable that source is since I just came across it today.

MIA @ ARI: Roof at Chase field is scheduled to be OPEN. Temps in Phoenix should be around 90 degrees throughout this game. Liking that for hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Mahle (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $8.9k | @ PIT

If you haven’t peeped the probable pitchers today, we have Mahle and Alex Wood (DK: $9.8k, FD: $8.9k) vs. TEX as two of the top arms on the slate… so that gives ya a pretty good idea of what we’re working with. I absolutely wouldn’t talk anyone off of Wood if that’s the guy you prefer. He’s been great in all of his starts with the exception of a forgivable Coors Field appearance. Mahle would appear to be the guy with more upside, however. He leads all SPs today with a 32.8% kRate on the season and draws a match-up with Pittsburgh who, prior to yesterday’s 6-5 win over the Cubs, had scored two runs or less in their other previous six games. Mahle does allow a high 39.4% HardHit% along with a 45.7% Fly Ball Rate, which has led to a slightly concerning 1.47 HR/9 Rate. But the Pirates have a .118 team ISO vs. RHPs this season (second lowest in baseball) so Mahle should still have an excellent shot at ending the day as the slate’s highest scoring pitcher. Again, no issue with rolling with Wood either if you’re spending up.

Kyle Gibson (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | @ SF

I think we’re all equally shocked/surprised about the solid year that Kyle Gibson has put together. He has scored no less than 16.7 DKFP/34 FDFP in his last six starts. In that span, he boasts a 1.32 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, and a .179 opp AVG/.226 wOBA. The strikeout rate isn’t spectacular (21.3%) but he’s forcing a borderline elite 13.3% Swinging Strike Rate. The Giants are a dangerous offense but they do swing and miss a bunch. Their 28.0% kRate vs. RHPs is the highest strikeout rate in the league and Vegas is pinning this game as a bit of a pitcher’s duel with just a 7.0 run O/U. Gibson is also averaging 100 pitches per outing over his last four starts, so he should be able to go six or seven innings deep today, barring an early shellacking.

Martin Perez (LHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | @ BAL

We’re really starved for value arms today and unless you’re entering a good chunk of lineups, I’d lean towards sticking to that Mahle/Wood/Gibson group. Perez is about as low as I’d feel like going (again unless you’re running an MME approach). Baltimore is sneaky good against LHPs and their 110 wRC+ versus southpaws ranks 10th. But Perez has a decent chance to pitch his way to a quality start/win bonus as he is supported by the league’s top offense which averages 5.34 runs/gm. Perez is also averaging about a strikeout per inning and hasn’t given up much power, with just a 25.3% Hard Contact Rate allowed this season and a 0.31 HR/9 Rate. Do I love the play? No, I can’t say that I do. But Perez could certainly hit that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold that we look for out of our value/mid-range pitchers.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️Top Stacks:⬆️ With Coors off the table, I think I’d look to gravitate towards Red Sox and Astros bats as the safest investments on the slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. TBD/Marlins Bullpen

The D-Backs stack is often overlooked, especially when they’re at home at Chase Field when the roof is open (like it should be today) and temperatures at first pitch are 90+ degrees. Arizona is averaging 5.82 runs/gm at home this season (4th most) and should be stepping into the batter’s box against a bunch of relief pitchers today. Miami’s bullpen has been solid, but I wouldn’t rank them as an elite unit by any means. Their bullpen numbers also take a pretty significant dive when having to go on the road away from the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. On the season, Marlins Park has ranked as the 2nd best pitcher’s park in terms of run factor. Chase Field has ranked as the 7th best hitter’s park.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

The Reds bats have sputtered a bit as of late and they’ve only plated six runs over their last four games. Perhaps a face-off with Mitch Keller can mend their offensive woes. Keller brings a slate-worst 5.00 xFIP and 1.68 WHIP to the table and Cincy’s .336 wOBA vs. RHPs ranks 3rd in baseball -- their .192 ISO ranks 2nd. Despite their recent struggles, they’re still among one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, and their 5.06 runs/gm checks in at 3rd. PNC Park in Pittsburgh has also favored offense quite a bit this season and boasts the 6th highest run factor up to this point in 2021. Keller will also be backed by a fairly average Pirates bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out

Texas Rangers vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

Changing up the title of this subsection a bit but the goal remains the same; What low-owned offensive stack that may seem kinda crazy has the potential to explode today and provide major leverage in GPPs? Well, I’m not bold enough to suggest the Pirates but these Texas Rangers have certainly been swinging some hot bats. Over the last two weeks, their 122 wRC+ ranks 2nd in the MLB, and they’ve done plenty of damage against lefties. Alex Wood has been very sharp through his 23.0 innings this season and will garner quite a bit of ownership. However, his .196 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) allowed is a far cry from his career .299 BABIP and there is reason to suspect some regression could be heading his way. Guys like Adolis Garcia, Nick Solak, and Joey Gallo have been excellent lately and I could absolutely see Texas outperforming the 3.1 implied run total that Vegas is giving them.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams highlighted above in the stack section:

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

There are plenty of Boston bats to like today but, if you’re not stacking ‘em, then Devers will be a prime one-off target. Lopez is allowing a .379 wOBA and huge .257 ISO + 3.00 HR/9 Rate to LHBs this season. Devers is smashing righties with a .401 wOBA and .349 ISO on the year and already has a couple of homers off of Lopez in just five plate appearances. Camden Yards is also always going to favor the hitters.

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. TBD

It’s unclear who exactly the Angels will be deploying on the mound tonight, but I’m not sure it matters to Yordan. The kid is just en fuego right now. Over his last seven games, he is 15-for-29 (.517) with a 1.129 wOBA+ISO, two doubles, four home runs, and a massive 332 wRC+.

1B/OF Trey Mancini | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

We’re still waiting on the 2019 version of Mancini to show up but I think we can all cut the man some slack after beating cancer over the course of the last year or so. He’s still putting up some really solid stats and the bat speed is certainly still there. His average exit velocity of 96.3 mph over the last two weeks puts him in the 95th percentile among hitters. Mancini also has a strong BvP narrative going for him as he’s hit .462 against Perez in 15 plate appearances.

1B/OF Jared Walsh | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

Imagine being the guy responsible (in a way) for pushing Albert Pujols out of the organization. I mean, Walsh’s success combined with Pujols’ decline is what led the team to make that decision but, still, there has to be some pressure there. Walsh is raking against righties this season with a .384 AVG, .481 wOBA, and .274 ISO. Meanwhile, Garcia is allowing a .360 wOBA and .278 ISO to lefty bats. As long as he slots in at clean-up with Trout and Ohtani ahead of him, Walsh carries considerable multi-hit, RBI, and HR upside.

OF Lewis Brinson | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

If he is in the lineup, Brinson is basically min-priced on both sites and frees up plenty of salary for bigger bats or better pitchers. His 11 batted balls over the last two weeks have had an average exit velo of 99.5 mph (95th percentile) and Weaver is giving up a .275 ISO and a 50.0% Hard Contact Rate to RHBs this season. I like the XBH potential here. Also, Brinson (likely) not hitting towards the top of the order is less of a negative since Miami is on the road and guaranteed to bat in the 9th inning.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

As mentioned right above, Weaver has allowed a .275 ISO and a high 50.0% Hard Contact Rate to RHBs this season. Duvall homered off of Weaver just five days ago which was his second HR of his career against Weaver in just nine plate appearances. Duvall has four barreled balls vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (85th percentile) and has produced an average exit velocity of 95.9 mph (95th percentile). He’s striking out a ton (35.0% kRate) but when he gets the bat on the ball, he is producing a 55.7% Fly Ball Rate this season. With the roof open at Chase Field and 90+ degree temps in Phoenix, I believe Duvall has a great shot at carrying one over the fence tonight.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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