Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/10 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia and Dan Strafford

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

There’s a fully loaded fourteen game Friday slate ready for us as we kick off the weekend and there is no shortage of pitching and batting decisions to sift through and unpack. Several high scoring affairs are being predicted, as six games have totals at nine runs or above while three games stand at seven and a half runs or lower. Let’s get crackin’ with a quick look at games with potential weather implications and then jump into some plays!

Tonight’s match-ups with totals and moneylines:

Weather Report ⛈️

LAA @ BAL: This will likely be the game we’ll most have to keep an eye on as fairly ‘unforecastable’ (for now) storms will move into Baltimore late afternoon and hang around the area into the evening. The storm system should be pretty spread out with more isolated showers, so risk of postponement is fairly low. However, a late start or in-game delay wouldn’t be out of the picture. I’m writing this about 12 hours from first pitch, but I’d consider pitchers in this game fairly risky but the hitters should be safe.

MIA @ NYM: There’s about a 20% chance of scattered showers with winds blowing out to left field around 10 mph. Chance of some sort of delay.

SEA @ BOS: Similar conditions as New York. Roughly a 20% chance of showers and winds will be blowing out to left around 12 mph.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.5k) | RHP | CIN @ SF

There are a handful of “tier one” pitchers capable of giving you 30 DKFP/50 FDFP but Castillo, arguably, has the best match-up and easiest pathway to most safely reaching those numbers as he faces the Giants who are coming off of their Coors Field road trip. In Castillo’s eight starts this year, he’s given up more than two earned runs in just one game. Funny enough, that one game was in his last start, which was also against the Giants, where he surrendered four earned runs on four hits. Still, he had a pretty successful fantasy outing and went on to fan nine batters. On the season, Castillo is holding opponents to just a .173 AVG to go with a 1.97 ERA, 3.51 SIERA, 30.3% kRate, and 0.97 WHIP. He is masterfully fooling batters with a slate-leading 14.9% SwStr%, which also ranks 7th in the entire MLB (30 IP minimum). The Giants offense has a fairly high 11.3% SwStr% (11th highest) and against RHP they only have a .226 AVG, .294 wOBA, .164 ISO, and 85 wRC+ to go with a 23.3% kRate. For a team that will often roll out four or five lefties, those are some pretty ugly hitting numbers. Overall, Castillo will be in a pitcher’s park and should have a solid floor with plenty of upside if you’re looking to spend up. The Reds offense has its own struggles, otherwise they would be bigger favorites. But for now, Cincy is a -143 favorite and the Giants have a lowly 3.4 implied run total.

Jake Odorizzi (DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k) | RHP | MIN vs. DET

Odorizzi could be setting up as chalk tonight but it may be chalk that you might just have to eat. Ultimately, it’s up to you! He is coming off of back-to-back wins against two top 10 offenses in the Astros and Yankees where he pitched 13 combined shutout innings while racking up 15 K's. He’s added a tick of speed to his fastball this year, which may be a reason why he is striking out batters at a career best 26.6% kRate with a 12.6% SwStr%. It’s a promising sign going against a Tigers team that has a league worst 12.9% SwStr% and an offense that has been sputtering all season. They average 3.67 runs/game (26th) and against RHP this season they hold just a .227 AVG, .287 wOBA, .139 ISO, .297 OBP, and 78 wRC+ with a 26.4% kRate. Odorizzi would really have to go out of his way to get blown up in this spot. With a very strong offense to back him, the Twins are the second heaviest favorite on the night at -210 and the Tigers have a four run implied total.

Homer Bailey (DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.9k) | RHP | KC vs. PHI

As is the case with a lot of these bottom of the barrel pitcher recommendations, this is more geared towards DK players in search of a cheap SP2 in order to load up on big bats in certain lineup builds. It may be tough to stomach inserting Homer Bailey into lineups, and I fully understand that, but (on DraftKings) he is the cheapest pitcher on the slate yet he has been better than many guys priced above him. In many instances he falls much more in the middle of the field when compared statistically to every other pitching option. This season he has allowed a .246 AVG with a 22.5% kRate and 1.31 WHIP. His ERA does sit at 5.25 but his 4.35 SIERA is nearly a run lower. To compare, Eric Lauer (.253 AVG, 21.5% kRate, 1.30 WHIP, 4.42 SIERA) has very similar numbers to Bailey and yet he is $800 more expensive and pitching at Coors Field! Focusing on Bailey’s opponent, the Phillies, they’re a solid offense but have been pretty mediocre against RHP this season: .249 AVG (14th), .325 wOBA (13th), .175 ISO (15th), 102 wRC+ (13th) with a 23.1% kRate (16th). Basically, the match-up isn’t horrible and he’s pitched well enough this season (16+ DKFP in 4/7 starts) to where he probably shouldn’t be the cheapest guy on the slate. At the end of the day, while the Phillies do have a 5.1 implied run total, the Royals are only +132 underdogs and there’s plenty of great hitting options you could pick up with the savings Bailey provides.

Team Stacks to Target

Coors Field Notice: This is the usual mention that with Coors Field in play today, neither San Diego or Colorado will be mentioned in detail but both should be considered for stacks -- especially the Rockies power righties facing off against a lefty (Eric Lauer).

Los Angeles Angels vs. Dan Straily (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

Expected Ownership: High

This match-up has “four innings of Straily + Orioles bullpen the rest of the way” written all over it, which is why the Angels have the highest implied total on the slate at 5.7 runs. Not only does Straily allow a ton of base runners (1.87 WHIP - highest on the slate) he is only striking out 9.8% of batters, lowest mark on the slate. And guess what offense has (by far) the lowest kRate in baseball? You got it! The Los Angeles Angels with a 15.4% kRate. Straily has also been awful at home in Camden Yards: 14 innings pitched, 11.57 ERA, .412 AVG, .548 wOBA, 2.57 WHIP, 8 HRs given up. Yikes! After Straily is retired, we’ll see an Orioles bullpen that has a 5.95 ERA, .272 AVG, 1.55 WHIP, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate. This is about as straight forward as it gets. Virtually the entire Angels lineup should fall into play today. As mentioned in the weather outlook, just make sure there’s no major risk of postponement here once we get closer to first pitch.

Minnesota Twins vs. Tyson Ross (RHP - Detroit Tigers)

Expected Ownership: Medium

Similar to the Angels, this is another good spot to attack a pitcher who may only last four or five innings before a struggling bullpen comes in to finish things out -- though the Twins should carry a bit less ownership. Tyson Ross has a 1-4 record on the season and has posted a rough 5.34 ERA, 4.93 SIERA, 16.8% kRate, 10.2% Walk Rate, .353 wOBA, and 1.62 WHIP. The Tigers bullpen is rocking a 5.74 ERA, 4.45 SIERA, and 1.58 WHIP. Pretty ugly all around unless you’re a Twins batter tonight. Minnesota has been a great offense all season, especially against RHP, in which they have posted a .346 wOBA (5th) and .237 ISO (1st) as a team. A red hot Jorge Polanco (.473 wOBA, .349 ISO, .438 OBP vs. RHP) has to be the cornerstone of any Twins stack. Alongside him, you would likely want to consider lead-off man Max Kepler (.366 wOBA, .260 ISO) who is relatively affordable. Eddie Rosario (.320 wOBA, .298 ISO) is starting to heat back up as well while Marwin Gonzalez (.269 wOBA, .297 OBP) may have pretty paltry numbers but has been benefiting in ‘platoon fashion’ from the guys batting around him, resulting in decent fantasy outputs lately in relation to his dirt cheap price tags.

Washington Nationals vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP - Los Angeles Dodgers)

Expected Ownership: Very Low

For the contrarian stack today, I’ll have some interest in two or three Washington bats who are economically viable and will face Kenta Maeda, who hasn’t been great this season. Certainly good, but not great. Overall, Maeda is 3-2 in seven starts and has allowed a .338 wOBA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.40 HR/9 Rate while posting a 4.66 ERA and 4.94 SIERA. His strikeouts have dipped from a career 25.7% kRate down to 20.6% this season and his walks are up to a 10.9%. The Nationals don’t really have many LHBs to throw out there but LHB Adam Eaton (.337 wOBA, .349 OBP) is an affordable lead-off guy in a favorable LvR match-up. To stack alongside him, your best bets would likely be Anthony Rendon (.432 wOBA, .313 ISO vs. RHP) and Howie Kendrick (.392 wOBA, .259 ISO, .389 OBP vs. RHP). The Nats have a 3.5 implied run total so there’s a strong likelihood that this stack busts, but it’s still a nice leverage play and the better bats in this order can be fit in pretty easily today. They're on the road, so the guarantee of a full nine innings of at-bats is a small bump to the viability as well.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Mookie Betts (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.4k) | OF | BOS vs. SEA

Mookie’s been hitting righties extremely well all season (.333 AVG, .446 wOBA, .284 ISO, .453 OBP) and all seven of his home runs have been off of righties. His DFS prices, though high, still seem a bit on the cheaper side given the man’s ability. He even saw a $300 price decrease on DraftKings despite scoring 38 DKFP over his last two games. Okay then, DraftKings... He’ll face off against Seattle rookie RHP Erik Swanson who has shown terrible reverse splits in his debut season. Against 44 RHBs faced this season, he has allowed a .302 AVG, .392 wOBA, .326 ISO with just a 13.6% kRate. His four home runs given up to righties translates to a 3.72 HR/9 Rating as well. So a righty hitter showing reverse splits this season going against a rookie righty pitcher showing reverse splits… could be a nice night for Mookie!

Matt Carpenter (DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k) | 1B/3B | STL vs. PIT

Carpenter might have the best BvP case to make tonight when he steps into the box against Trevor Williams. In 25 career plate appearances, Carpenter has gone 8 for 19 (.421 AVG) with three home runs, a .560 OBP, and 1.560 OPS. Over his last six games, Carpenter is batting .333 with a .402 wOBA and .429 OBP with just three strikeouts in 28 at-bats (10.7% kRate). He’ll be one of my favorite affordable lead-off guys to consider on this slate.

Chris Davis (DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k) | 1B | BAL vs. LAA

Trevor Cahill is only striking out 11.1% of lefties that he has faced this season while allowing a massive .504 wOBA, .364 ISO, 2.29 WHIP, and 3.97 HR/9 on 47.9% Hard Contact and 41.7% FB%. Really, really ugly numbers. Davis has basically only been remotely effective against RHPs this season (.197 AVG, .289 wOBA, .182 ISO) but he’s had an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph (top 90%) on 12 batted balls against RHP in the last two weeks on 41.7% Hard Contact. His DFS prices are still in the cellar and the odds of him getting ahold of a Cahill meatball thrown his way are better than most other match-ups he’s had this season. The Orioles have a high 4.8 implied run total tonight and there’s a chance Davis slots in fifth in the order like he did in his last start.

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