By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Happy Tuesday to the LineStar fam! A dozen games await on deck in this evening’s main slate. With 24 offenses and 24 starting pitchers to choose from, there will be no shortage of ways to go about constructing lineups for this behemoth of a slate!

We’re over a month into the 2022 season and it’s about that time where we can begin to really trust the sample sizes and data a bit more from the current season. The majority of the everyday hitters have 100+ plate appearances to their name and the vast majority of starting pitchers who began the season healthy have five or six starts under their belt with around 25 innings pitched.

On top of that, some signs of summer are creeping in. Temperatures are warming up in many ballparks and we even have multiple games today where temperatures will be in the 80s at the time of first pitch!

So let’s lock it in because I have a feeling things are going to start picking up here soon!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s a pristine day across the country and we’ll have zero rain issues to worry about on this slate! However, a few ballparks will still have some winds and/or temperatures worth mentioning below.

TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph.

BOS @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch.

BAL @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Temps near 90 degrees at first pitch and 80+ degrees for the entire game. Light winds blowing right to left but could shift a bit towards the outfield at times. Busch Stadium is not the best hitter’s park around but bats still get a bump here.

CLE @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): Winds blowing IN at 10 mph.

TB @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8 O/U): Winds blowing OUT at 10-15 mph.

MIA @ ARI (9:40 ET, 8 O/U): The roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be OPEN. Temps in Phoenix will be in the upper-80s during this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.9k | vs. BOS

If you want to side with one of the more established studs like Justin Verlander ($10.4k/$10.8k, @ MIN) or Lucas Giolito ($9.7k/$10.3k, vs. CLE), I wouldn’t blame you. Even though he is coming off of a relatively poor outing on the road against the Mets, Kyle Wright is pitching at a much higher level than he has at any point in his career, so I’m sure there are still some who would prefer to take a “wait and see” approach, especially when he’s being pinned with five-figure DFS salaries. Wright’s 1.74 ERA is certainly a great number for a pitcher to be posting through five starts but his advanced stats, like his 2.60 xFIP and 2.48 SIERA, are also supporting that low ERA while signifying that it’s a legitimate earned run average and not overly ‘luck based.’ He’s also recording plenty of strikeouts with his 30.6% kRate and 12.9% SwStr% while forcing a 53.4% Ground Ball Rate.

The Red Sox do not strike out a ton, just 21.6% vs. RHPs this season (9th lowest), but they’re not doing much with their bats. They have only a 79 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 25th) and their average of 3.28 runs/gm rank ahead of only the Royals and Tigers. Wright has thrown at least 92 pitches in his last four starts and enters this home game with back-to-back games of seven full innings pitched, so he has the sort of long leash we need out of pitchers to return value at this price point. It’s a warm day out in Atlanta but given Wright’s high ground ball rate combined with the fact that he has only allowed one run in his three home starts this season (0.47 ERA), that should alleviate some concerns. The Braves are moderate -138 favorites while the Red Sox possess a low 3.4 implied run total.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10k | @ ARI

The D-Backs bats have been quite solid lately and they’re shaping up to be a team that we don’t want to simply ‘auto-attack’ with any moderately decent pitcher that is scheduled to face them. But Arizona has yet to do much damage against lefties and their .186 AVG, .260 wOBA, and 66 wRC+ vs. LHPs rank them dead last in the MLB in all three categories. Their overall 25.2% kRate is the fourth-highest in baseball, though it is a bit lower against LHPs at 22.1%.

Luzardo has posted a sharp 3.08 ERA, 2.89 xFIP, and 3.02 SIERA across his five starts (26.1 IP). His only poor outing came against the St. Louis Cardinals who simply crush lefties (.367 wOBA, 143 wRC+, both rank 1st in MLB) so I’d say he can be excused for that one. If you’re looking for strikeout potential, Luzardo also has that in the bag given his 33.3% kRate and 13.2% SwStr%. Walks have been a bit of an issue for him (11.4% BB%) but it’s far from what I would consider overly worrisome. Luzardo reached a season-high 98 pitch count in his last start so he should be in line for another lengthy outing tonight. Again, much like the aforementioned Kyle Wright, there are more established names in Luzardo’s DFS price range, but all signs point towards him being highly playable in DFS this evening.

Mike Clevinger (RHP), SD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CHC

Clevinger’s appearance last Wednesday was his first MLB start since the 2020 playoffs. Did it go tremendously well? Not particularly. But it was far from a bad outing (4.2 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 4 K) and the best part is he threw 95 pitches so he’s already fully stretched out heading into his second start of 2022. Also, he was facing his old team on the road in Cleveland. The Guardians have been extremely tough against RHPs this season (.342 wOBA, 130 wRC+, both rank 1st in MLB) and they also rarely strikeout (18.9% kRate, lowest in MLB). So, essentially, it was about as difficult of a match-up as Clevinger could have drawn in his first start back.

The Cubs do not represent as tough of a challenge. If we look at their numbers against RHPs over the last two weeks, they have an awful .158 AVG (ranks last) and 44 wRC+ (also ranks last) to go with a lofty 30.0% kRate (highest in the MLB in that span). Clevinger will still have some rust to shake off, given the amount of time he has missed, any pitcher would. But, again, the big positive takeaway from last Wednesday was the 95 pitch count and he managed to not get shelled against, statistically, the MLB’s best offense against RHPs. If you’re new to MLB DFS and maybe aren’t familiar with Clevinger, he’s a dude who has a five-pitch arsenal with a rock-solid 27.3% kRate and 30.1% CSW% (called + swinging strike %) across 547.0 IP in his career. When he’s on top of his game, he’s going to carry DFS prices that are roughly $3,000 more expensive than the ones he has today. It may take a few more starts for him to look like his former self but he could absolutely take a major step forward today. Vegas seems to expect that as well given the Padres being heavily favored (-162) while the Cubs carry a low 3.3 implied run total.

Also Consider:

There are quite a few strong starting pitchers on this slate that I didn’t highlight above so this list will be longer than usual…

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIN

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.3k | vs. CLE

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | @ SEA

Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.9k | @ ATL

Alex Wood (LHP), SF | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. COL

*Wade Miley (RHP), CHC | DK: $4k, FD: $7k | @ SD

*DraftKings SP2 Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

The Cards have been a better target when they’re facing off with a lefty but Bradish has not looked great through his first two starts in the big leagues so let’s look for some nice production from St. Louis in this game. Bradish, who will be making his first career start on the road today, is allowing a 28.1% LineDrive% to go along with a slate-high 93.3 mph average exit velocity. The Cardinals are a fairly average/below average offense against RHPs (93 wRC+, ranks 20th) but once they get runners on base and into scoring position, all of a sudden they turn back into a top 10 offense. Against RHPs w/ RISP, they’re hitting .278 (ranks 7th) with a .327 wOBA (10th), and 117 wRC+ (10th).

The Baltimore bullpen may come into play a bit earlier than usual if Bradish does end up struggling. Overall, the O’s relievers have been solid on the year but more mediocre in recent weeks. As noted in the weather section above, this is setting up as an excellent hitter’s environment with game time temperatures in the upper-80s throughout the entire game with light winds blowing towards the outfield at times. Even though it isn’t the best hitter’s park, the Cardinals have averaged nearly half a run more at home (4.58 runs/gm) as opposed to on the road (4.13 runs/gm).

Favorite STL Bats: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman | Sneaky Bat: Juan “The Hit Machine” Yepez

San Francisco Giants vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

For the second highlighted stack, I wanted to point out an offense that should be set up with advantageous match-ups for every inning they step up to the plate. Antonio Senzatela represents a good starting match-up to stack against and the Rockies bullpen has been pretty rough even when you take the Coors Field effect out of the equation. Senzatela has been putting a slew of runners on base and his 1.88 WHIP ranks last among all of today’s starters, along with his .428 opp wOBA. The Rockies bullpen has posted a league-worst 1.51 WHIP and 4.94 ERA this season to go along with poor underlying stats such as their 4.40 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA (both second-worst).

It’s a bit counter-intuitive since Oracle Park is generally classified as an excellent pitcher’s park, but the Giants bats have been considerably hotter on their home diamond. They go from an offense that posts a middle-of-the-pack 95 wRC+ and 4.46 runs/gm on the road to a top 10 offense with a 118 wRC+ and 5.06 runs/gm at home. Unless they’re in a super obvious smash spot (usually at Coors or some other hitter’s park), Giants hitters almost always go under-owned, especially on a slate this large. They can certainly fall completely flat offensively at times but, usually, when they hit they *really* hit. They enter tonight’s game having scored 25 runs over their last three, so let’s see if they can keep the momentum rolling.

Favorite SF Bats: Joc Pederson, Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski | Sneaky Bat: Austin Slater

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

We can all agree that Robbie Ray has not been pitching anywhere close to the level he did last year in his Cy Young-winning campaign. There is certainly nothing special about his 4.38 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, or 4.13 SIERA numbers. Strikeouts have always been the main source of Ray’s pitching prowess and even that isn’t working for him. His 20.3% kRate this season sits below the league average and it's a far cry from his 32.1% kRate from 2021 and 28.9% kRate for his career. His two primary pitches (fastball & slider) are both down about a tick-and-a-half in velocity and hitters are making noticeably more contact against his pitches both inside and outside of the strike zone. This is also setting up as a poor BvP situation for Ray. In 56 PA vs. this Phillies lineup, they have posted a prodigious .375 AVG and .429 wOBA. Also, the Phillies have crushed lefties on the road this season -- though it is only an 89 PA sample size, they have come away with a .311 AVG, .389 wOBA, and 153 wRC+. The Mariners bullpen has been strong and Robbie Ray has had only one truly bad start in six games this season. But stacking two or three Phillies bats makes sense from a leverage standpoint as very few people will want to attack a guy like Robbie Ray, who dominated in 2021.

Favorite PHI Bats: Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Rhys Hoskins | Sneaky Bat: Jean Segura

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), SD

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B/3B Yandy Diaz | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Luis Gonzalez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

1B/OF Josh Naylor | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Austin Slater | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Packy Naughton (LHP), STL

OF Mark Canha | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF/1B Juan Yepez | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Emmanuel Riviera | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Arenado and the Cardinals return home from their six-game road trip to face Bradish and the O’s today. Arenado has raked at home this season where he has hit .385 with a .540 wOBA, .436 ISO, and 262 wRC+ with four home runs -- scary stuff… if you’re the opposing pitcher. Kyle Bradish will be making only his third career MLB start, and his first on the road. The inexperienced righty has already been allowing plenty of hard contact with a high 93.3 mph average exit velocity. He gave up a home run in each of his two previous starts, both to right-handed hitters (like ‘Nado). And it’s worth noting that, with the off-season renovations, Camden Yards has not been an easy park for hitters to knock out home runs this season. Behind Bradish will be an O’s bullpen that has given up six home runs in the last two weeks (T-6th most). And while I can’t say this with 100% certainty, I’m fairly sure this will officially be the hottest game played up to this point in the season. Temperatures will hover in the upper-80s all night, which is always a nice little plus for some home run potential!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 Total Bases (from hits) | +105 | 2.0 units

Well, if you didn’t skip over the “Home Run Call” section, you know ‘Nado is my pick to go yard today so I’ll double down and take him to at least secure multiple bases on hits in this game. As noted in the HR section, Arenado has been incredible at home this season where he has hit for a .385 AVG, .540 wOBA, and .436 ISO. It’s not the biggest sample size (39 at-bats) but 9-of-15 hits he’s belted at home have gone for extra bases (five 2B, four HR). Bradish has been allowing a high LineDrive% along with a high average exit velocity. The O’s bullpen has been nothing spectacular lately as well. With the best hitting weather of the day residing in St. Louis, let’s bet Arenado to cover *at least* two bases on hits today!

HR Prop Parlay: Pete Alonso (+300), Aaron Judge (+350), Nolan Arenado (+300) | +7100 | 0.5 Units

I’m throwing this one out mostly for fun. These are the three hitters who @ShannonOnSports, @flattyler83, and myself have all picked to go yard today. And I gotta say, as unlikely as the odds are, this could be a day where all three of our HR calls click. Don’t go nuts here but if you’re feeling frisky, throw a buck or two on this +7100 long shot parlay and let’s see what happens! Depending on your sportsbook, you might even be able to get better odds than what I have posted.

If you’re seeing this prop bet section posted on Twitter, you can go to LineStar’s “HR Call of the Day” tweet to see why we’ve picked these three guys to secure a ‘big fly’ today (my Arenado write up will be posted below the tweet)!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!