Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 5/1 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

With Scherzer, deGrom, Kluber, Nola, and Ryu on the mound today, there is no shortage of ace pitching and you can reasonably make a case for paying up for any one of ‘em. A major story line has been how much these great pitchers have struggled in the early goings of the season, many of which are featured on tonight’s slate. From a DFS perspective, it has certainly been a frustratingly common occurrence for that $10k+ pitcher that you chose to pay up for in a great match-up to go out and get blown up by bad teams that are struggling to hit for a .200 batting average on the year. But, unless some sort of Space Jam-type scenario has gone down where aliens have come to earth to steal the talent from elite baseball pitchers, eventually these guys will get going and you’ll want to be on them when they do!

Here are tonight’s match-ups and Vegas lines/totals:

There are no immediate weather concerns at this point in the day. A few games have a slight chance of seeing some stray showers come along but any risk of postponements seem minimal.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.9k) | RHP | NYM vs. CIN

deGrom is well known to be one of those aces that is off to a rocky start to the season but, unless something is seriously wrong, he’ll get back to his usual self and likely sooner rather than later. There are several stats that are due to correct themselves. His 4.85 ERA is nearly two runs higher than his 2.88 SIERA, indicating that he has been the victim of some bad luck thus far. His .389 BABIP allowed should start to drop back towards his .295 career average as well. He’s just been allowing far too much hard contact (47.5%) and not causing enough ground balls (28.6%) resulting in a 20.8% HR/FB rate -- nearly double his career average. Though 24 of his 43 strikeouts through his five starts came in his first two games of the season, you still can’t discount the 37.7% kRate he has thus far. He’s increased his velocity on both his fast ball (96.5 mph) and slider (92.8 mph) -- pitches that he throws about 80% of the time. With the increased velocity, once he manages the control issues or whatever his struggle may be, he should start rolling through batting orders again. This match-up with Cincinnati is probably the best one he’s had since his early April game versus Miami when he had 14 punch outs. The Reds have been terrible against RHP this season with a .211 AVG, .281 wOBA, .159 ISO, and 69 wRC+ while striking out 24.2% of the time. The Mets are heavy -200 favorites while the Reds hold a 2.8 implied run total. As I said in the intro, you can make a case for any of the top pitchers tonight and I just feel like deGrom comes through in this game. If not, I think we can really start worrying.

Caleb Smith (DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.2k) | LHP | MIA vs. CLE

Corey Kluber should find his way into plenty of lineups tonight, for good reason, but I’m liking the pivot across the dugout to Caleb Smith. He has taken a giant leap forward this season after posting a 2.17 ERA backed up by a 2.99 SIERA. His strikeouts are way up with a 33.9% kRate and an elite 15.6% Swinging Strike Rate. Smith is just not letting many batters on base, evidenced by his 0.83 WHIP. You could point to the fact that he is aided by playing at the very pitcher friendly Marlins Park but his numbers haven’t really dropped off significantly on the road and he’s just been one of the most consistent DFS pitchers to date. He should be able to deal some damage against an Indians team near the bottom of the league in every metric versus lefties: .223 AVG, .274 wOBA, .087 ISO, and a 65 wRC+ with a massive 27.7% kRate. With Kluber on the other side, Miami will be the +120 home underdog but the Indians only have a 3.6 implied run total.

Max Fried (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k) | LHP | ATL vs. SD

With all of the talent on the mound today, I really don’t think there’s any reason to delve too deep into the cheap pitchers. Fried is probably as low as I’d be willing to go and more so just for DraftKings as an SP2. On FanDuel, I feel like you just take one of the aces or tier two pitchers. Fried has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves this season as he’s gotten off to a 3-1 record across five starts. He hasn’t pitched more than 6.1 innings in a game and isn’t a threat to always get a bunch of strikeouts (20.5% kRate) but he is managing the game well with a low 1.09 WHIP and forcing 52.7% ground balls. This has led him to a 2.30 ERA though his 3.90 SIERA being over a run and a half higher does cause a bit of concern. I will mention that the Padres can be a scary team to throw lefties at. Their team has a collective .222 ISO versus LHP which is 5th in the MLB and they create a league leading 47.3% Hard Contact. So while I do think Fried can do well as a cheaper pitching option tonight, I also wouldn’t be surprised if he allows a home run or two in that warm Atlanta weather. The Braves are pretty comfortable -150 favorites and the Padres have a 4.1 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Martin Perez (LHP - Minnesota Twins)

Projected Ownership: High

You just have to like the Astros any time they draw a match-up with a southpaw. Their RHBs are just so good. Against LHP this season, they have a league leading .379 wOBA to go with a .239 ISO, 149 wRC+ and an 18.6% HR/FB Rate. Perez really hasn’t pitched all that bad this season after a 3-0 start and he has elevated his fastball speed up to a 94.7 mph average while causing a career high 11.5% Swinging Strike Rate. But overall, he is posting a 4.81 SIERA and 1.59 WHIP so he’s allowing a good amount of base runners aboard and we know how quickly the Astros can string together some runs. Your usual suspects are the preferred options, though I don’t mind skipping Altuve who is in a bit of a slump. George Springer (.420 wOBA, .417 ISO vs. LHP), Alex Bregman (.391 wOBA, .208 ISO), and Carlos Correa (.390 wOBA, .260 ISO). Yuli Gurriel hasn’t been great lately but is cheap and he hits lefties much better than righties and is due for some positive regression soon.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Daniel Norris (LHP - Detroit Tigers)

Projected Ownership: Medium

Daniel Norris has pitched only 62.2 innings since the start of 2018 and in that time he has a 5.17 ERA while allowing a .353 wOBA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.7 HR/9 with a 15.8% HR/FB Rate. So he lets quite a bit of runners on base and is prone to giving up home runs. This is certainly a pitcher that a team like the Phillies should be able to string some runs against as they currently rank 7th in the league with a .273 AVG with runners in scoring position. Andrew McCutchen (.366 wOBA, .213 ISO, .374 OBP) is always a threat to get on base and steal a bag. Jean Segura (.382 wOBA, .386 OBP) will be in his fourth game back from injury and should start to get some consistency going. From there you can opt for one of the heavy hitters with either Bryce Harper (.384 wOBA, .250 ISO) or Rhys Hoskins (.426 wOBA, .308 ISO). With the need to pay up for pitching today, not a great chance of getting them both. I would lean slightly towards Harper as Norris has a career 19.3% HR/FB Rate against lefties (9.5% vs. righties).

New York Mets (LHB) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - Cincinnati Reds)

Projected Ownership: Low

I don’t have a ton of interest in the Mets right handers but I’ll buy some shares into a two or three man Mets lefty stack today. DeSclafani has pretty extreme splits so he may have some trouble with the trio of LHBs that the Mets roll out towards the top of their order. So far this season against LHBs, DeSclafani has allowed a .344 AVG, .441 wOBA, 15.4% Walk Rate, 2.43 WHIP, and a 65% Fly Ball Rate on 34.8% Hard Contact. Assuming Robinson Cano sits out again today, the following guys will find themselves first, third, and fourth in the order: Jeff McNeil (.426 wOBA, .457 OBP), Brandon Nimmo (.339 wOBA, .362 OBP), and Michael Conforto (.400 wOBA, .250 ISO, .403 OBP). With just 3.7 implied runs today, these Mets shouldn’t be too popular and they’re capable of exceeding expectations in this spot.

UPDATE: Cano will play today and bat third sending Nimmo to the six hole. I still have interest in all four.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Ozzie Albies (DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.3k) | 2B | ATL vs. SD

In his last 10 games, Albies has hit safely in nine, including four home runs, while posting a .395 wOBA and .311 ISO. He’ll see minor league call-up RHP Cal Quantrill, who has a 4.68 ERA (4.80 xFIP) in triple-A this season -- not all that great. Second base doesn’t have many appealing options on this slate so paying up for Albies, who has really strong home splits (.392 wOBA, .253 ISO, 5 HRs), may be a preferred option tonight.

Franmil Reyes (DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.4k) | OF | SD @ ATL

If you’re not pitching Max Fried then you can take a shot on one of these Padres who can send one out of the park. Reyes is very cheap and is coming off of a double dinger night. Reyes has a career .403 wOBA, .223 ISO against LHPs and all three of Fried’s home runs given up this year have come to right-handed bats.

Justin Turner (DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k) | 3B | LAD vs. SF

If we’re buying these expensive pitchers tonight, then we’ll need some additional value bats. So Turner checks in as the second cheap hitter in this section. Since last year, Turner has performed much better against southpaws. He has a .402 wOBA, .219 ISO, and .416 OBP against LHPs in that time frame. He’s had a rough first month to the season but he launched his first homer last night, so maybe he’s ready to break out of the slump. He also has an average exit velocity of 99.4 mph off of LHP in the last 14 days. Turner and the Dodgers face a pretty tough match-up with Madison Bumgarner tonight but if you go after him, it’s optimal to do so with righties.

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