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⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Opening Day is officially in the books and we’ll now set our sights toward day two of the 2022 MLB season! Friday brings us a massive day of baseball featuring 13 games -- 16 teams will be playing their first game of the season today. With games scheduled throughout the day, there are several DFS slates to choose from. As usual, the focus of this newsletter will be centered on the evening main slate which contains five games and will start up at 7:05 ET. Normally on Fridays, we’re going to see much larger main slates than the one we have scheduled for this evening but five games are still plenty enough for us to sink our teeth into. Let’s dive on in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

NYM @ WAS (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): This is the main spot to keep an eye on for this slate. There is at least some chance of rainfall at any point during this game with scattered showers/t-storms expected to move through the DC area. Those chances increase the later it gets but the game may play in its entirety without issue. Worst case scenario seems like a delay happens at some point, which could add a little more risk to starting pitchers, but the bats should be fine.

CIN @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing right to left at 10-15 mph. No real boost to either pitchers or bats.

HOU @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.5 O/U): Another warm start in LA with first pitch temperatures in the upper-80s. It likely stays 80+ degrees for much of this game. Bats get a slight bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Pitching Note: Yesterday eight starting pitchers were able to get to 80-85 pitches thrown (with Yu Darvish throwing 92 pitches), which is probably a bit more than what I originally thought. Still, several guys failed to hit above (or barely got to) a 70 pitch count, and only two SPs (Darvish & Wainwright) were able to pitch six full innings. This is just a reminder that upside is capped a bit on pretty much every starting pitcher for the time being but we can still receive solid fantasy results from the ones who manage to hit an 80+ pitch count.

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $8.8k | @ ARI

The big stud on the slate is Max Scherzer ($10.2k/$11k) but you do have to wonder how cautious the Mets will be with his workload after a hamstring issue popped up for him about a week ago. He should do just fine for as long as he’s out there on the mound but just keep in mind that he brings some level of risk along with his five-figure DFS salaries.

So that will bring us to Manaea who will be making his Padres debut following a trade from the A’s just five days ago. Manaea is coming off of his best season as a big leaguer when he had 32 starts and 179.1 IP while accounting for a 3.62 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 25.7% kRate, and a 28.6% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). The D-Backs pulled off the late comeback against the Padres last night but they began the game going hitless for the first six innings against Yu Darvish. Arizona’s offensive struggles to start off their first game of the season were not much of a surprise considering they’re likely to finish among the bottom five offenses in the MLB this year. Yu Darvish holding the D-Backs hitless was probably helpful in getting him to 92 pitches and six full innings of work so we shouldn’t expect the same sort of long leash to be given to Manaea tonight considering he only pitched 3.2 innings in the spring in one start (37 pitches). Still, he can probably hit that 80-85 pitch count like we saw many SPs accomplish yesterday. I wouldn’t consider him a “safe” option but Manaea makes for an intriguing pivot away from Max Scherzer today.

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | vs. CIN

In his age 37 season, Morton proved to be as steady as ever in 2021 when he went 14-6 across 33 starts, 185.2 IP, and posted a 3.18 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 28.6% kRate, and a 31% CSW%. That 31% CSW% ranked 8th among all qualified MLB starters on the year. The Reds don’t profile as the best match-up and they were able to jump on Max Fried last night after Fried started having issues putting batters away. However, Morton tends to get ahead in the count on a much more consistent basis and is excellent at retiring batters once he gains that edge. Seven batters in the current projected Cincinnati lineup had at least a 21.3% kRate against RHPs last season. As many may recall, Morton did suffer a fractured fibula in the World Series and his availability to start this season was originally up in the air. His recovery came along quicker than expected and he was able to get a couple of starts during spring training so he’s another guy we can probably hope to get roughly 80 pitches out of this evening. The Braves will also check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with -190 moneyline odds.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. SD

With only ten starting pitchers to choose from on this slate, it isn’t as if we have a ton of killer options, especially if you’re looking to save some salary. Kelly, who is one of the cheapest SP options on the board, does make some sense, however. He’s taking the mound at home in Chase Field tonight. Last season, his home splits were noticeably stronger than his road splits. In 83.1 IP at home, Kelly posted a 3.78 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 0.76 HR/9, 20.2% kRate. Compare that to his 2021 road splits: 74.2 IP, 5.18 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, 1.69 HR/9, 18.7% kRate. Obligatory “yes, it’s a small sample size from meaningless games” but in 7.0 IP during spring ball, Kelly pitched extremely well -- he allowed just a single hit with zero walks, no earned runs, and struck out 13 batters! He also topped out at 62 pitches thrown in one of his two spring training starts which is certainly on the higher side when compared to most other SPs. The match-up with the Padres may end up being a decent one as well. San Diego only managed to push two runs across the plate on four hits last night against Arizona’s pitching and in 105 PA against the SD roster, Kelly has held them to a .213 AVG and .269 wOBA. Sure, there is some risk with Kelly but that’s factored into his DFS pricing as well. He’s not a bad GPP flier if you’re looking to jam in some big bats tonight.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Atlanta Braves vs. Reiver Sanmartin (LHP), CIN

The Braves are in a strong spot against the lefty Sanmartin tonight, who will be making just his third ever MLB start following a pair of starts and 11.2 IP last season for the Reds. Sanmartin pitched quite well in his two big league starts while going 2-0 and earning a 1.54 ERA. But there’s a bit of a caveat there -- both starts came against the Pittsburgh Pirates so… we kinda need to take those results with a grain of salt. We can’t say for certain, but Sanmartin may not have an extensive workload on his plate tonight because, along with being an inexperienced pitcher at the MLB level, he only threw four innings in the spring. If he’s taken off the mound early, the Braves will look to take advantage of a subpar Reds bullpen. I wouldn’t intentionally avoid lefty Braves bats (specifically Matt Olson) simply because a lefty on the mound for the Reds… but the right-handed bats (Riley, Albies, Duvall, Ozuna) do look a bit better in general.

Houston Astros vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

Detmers, a 22-year-old lefty, received his first taste of MLB action when he earned five starts last season. He was pretty awful in all but one of those five starts (ironically the lone good game came against Houston) and in his 20.2 IP, he came away with a 7.40 ERA, 5.86 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, and allowed an 11.6% Barrel% to go with five home runs (2.18 HR/9). The Astros were arguably the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching last season when they posted a 117 wRC+ and .338 wOBA. Detmers may have the shortest leash of any starting pitcher on the slate so the Angels bullpen could be tasked with handling most of tonight’s innings. The Angels bullpen is not bad by any means and could end up being a top 10 unit this season, but there is certainly some nice potential for the Houston bats to go off tonight. Perhaps recency bias on Houston’s one-game sample size where they scored only three runs last night keeps their ownership down as well.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

This is a pure leverage stack on a small slate where it can be hard to be unique. While he faded a bit down the stretch last season, by all means, Scherzer looked like to be his usual dominant self in the spring. And the hamstring injury that has nagged him in recent days could be a total non-factor tonight as well. BUT there is always the potential that the Mets take a more cautious approach with his workload (especially if they grab a lead early) which would open up more innings for bullpen arms to take responsibility for. You wouldn’t have to go crazy here to gain significant leverage, and even stacking two or three Nats bats would do the trick. Also, if you only play one-to-three lineups, you can probably just ignore this suggestion altogether since several other offenses are in such solid spots.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

1B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Reiver Sanmartin (LHP), CIN

1B Luke Voit | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/3B/OF Jeff McNeil | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

1B/OF Brad Miller | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B Robinson Cano | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Cooper Hummel | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

SS CJ Abrams | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

Tucker usually doesn’t get a great spot in the order as he typically bats sixth or seventh. In this lefty-on-lefty match-up, my guess is he slots in at the No. 6 spot once again. Tucker may only get one or two cracks at Detmers but that may be all he needs to send one over the outfield wall in Anaheim tonight. Detmers faced only 24 LHBs last season so it is indeed an extremely small sample size, but in that time he allowed lefties to hit .318 with a .410 wOBA, .273 ISO, and he gave up a pair of home runs. Kyle Tucker has shown extremely even splits across his career to both RHPs and LHPs, and to an extent, he may be slightly better in these lefty-on-lefty situations. In 2021 against LHPs, Tucker posted a .280 AVG, .371 wOBA, .280 ISO to go with a 42.3% Hard%. Whether it’s Detmers or one of the Angels relievers, Tucker is a strong option if you’re hunting for a home run threat on this slate.

Players Props & Bets 💰

Mets/Astros Moneyline Parlay | +225

Even with the hamstring concerns and possible pitch limit, it’s more likely that Scherzer is on point tonight than not and he could reach 80-90 pitches with ease. So, with that in mind, the Mets moneyline (-160 as a standalone bet) feels rock-solid here.

Houston (+100 ML) will get a crack at a young lefty who struggled considerably in limited action last year so I love their chances to come away with the win here since it’s likely they can get an early lead. Taking both moneylines makes for a strong two-leg parlay at +225.

Pete Alonso + Kyle Tucker to Both Hit a Home Run | +1500

Definitely a long-shot bet here but both guys will be facing starting pitchers who have allowed an abnormally high HR/FB rate (Josiah Gray: 18.6%, Reid Detmers: 16.1%) so I like both guys’ chances of going yard. I wish their HR odds were a bit longer (both +300 to hit a home run) but a small bet on this HR parlay still pays out very well… if it hits of course. Shout out to Tyler O’Neill for cashing in the +450 home run prop for us yesterday!

Merrill Kelly o3.5 Strikeouts | -160

I’m a sucker for plus-money bets and parlays, as you can tell from the bets/props posted yesterday along with the first two listed today, but this Kelly strikeout prop feels like a safe one to place a wager on. Unless he gets absolutely shelled early, Merrill Kelly should end the night with one of the higher pitch counts among this slate’s starters. His fastball velocity was up a tick in his spring training starts and he’s said that he feels much better about his change-up as well. He K’d 13 batters across only seven innings pitched during the spring and even though the Padres lineup isn’t filled with guys who strike out a lot, getting to at least four total strikeouts should be extremely doable for Kelly tonight.