Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/8/19 | "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

A healthy eight game slate is on deck for tonight and things will almost certainly get interesting in this one. There are four games carrying totals of nine runs or higher, including a Coors Field match-up with Atlanta making the trip to the Mile High City. Three of the top four offenses thus far in the 2019 season are in play as well: LAD (8.40 runs p/g), SEA (7.73 runs p/g), and PHI (6.62 runs p/g).

Here are tonight’s match-ups and Vegas lines:

The forecasts for these games aren’t indicating any significant cause for weather concern.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander (DK: $10.4k | FD: $10.7k) | RHP | HOU vs. NYY

Verlander is clearly the most talented pitcher on this slate and probably deserves to be the highest owned arm. Besides wanting to jam in a bunch of big bats, there are a couple other factors that may give some people pause on inserting him into their lineups. For one, his last start was very shoddy, as he got pulled after four innings on 94 pitches in which he allowed 4 ER, 6 H (1 HR) while striking out just four and issuing three walks. Second, he’s facing off against the Yankees who carry the ‘offensive juggernaut’ label in many people’s minds -- which will be propagated even more after their 15 run performance on Sunday. These two factors have resulted in Verlander’s DFS salaries dropping significantly from his last start ($1,100 decrease on DK, $600 on FD). In baseball, it’s best to keep a short memory because Verlander doesn’t all of a sudden lose his bonafide stud status after one poor outing and he checks in as possibly the best valued pitcher despite being the most expensive. The Yankees are also far from full strength and they’ve struggled in some games against much less talented pitching than they’ll face today. Verlander is certified filthy when pitching at home to boot. In his 2018 home appearances, he had a massive kRate of 37.6% against a Walk Rate of just 3.3%. He also had a 2.75 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP. Despite the decent possibility of allowing one or two home runs to the heavy hitters in this lineup, there’s even more upside for strikeout potential. Judge, Sanchez, Voit, Bird, and Frazier all struck out more than 25% of the time against RHPs in 2018 and Verlander has 35 K’s against the Yankees in his last three home appearances against them. The Astros (-150) are the largest favorite on the slate and the Yankees have an implied total of 3.4 runs.

Eric Lauer (DK: $7.5k | FD: $7.1k) | LHP | SD @ SF

Lauer was a recommended play in his Opening Day start against this same Giants team. The results: 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB while earning a win in the process across just 70 pitches -- 20.5 DK points, 37 FD points. Despite the price hike, Lauer should still be a relatively safe and viable option. He is a reverse splits pitcher, meaning he has better numbers against lefties, which is what most of San Francisco’s higher quality players happen to be. Since the start of the 2018 season, the Giants are dead last against LHPs with just a .284 wOBA and .293 OBP while striking out 23.3% of the time (8th worst). Lauer should be a solid SP2 candidate on DraftKings and a really appealing pivot option on FanDuel in ‘big bat’ lineup builds.

Kyle Freeland (DK: $6.2k | FD: $8.5k) | LHP | COL vs. ATL

Rolling with a pitcher at Coors Field is always a risky proposition but Freeland’s career home/away splits with the Rockies really are not that drastically different at all -- in most metrics he is actually better at home. In 93.2 IP at home last year, he had a 2.40 ERA, 22.3% kRate, 3.98 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP and 1.06 HR/9. His away splits in 108.2 IP were: 3.23 ERA, 19.0% kRate, 4.42 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP and 0.50 HR/9. As you can see, the only metric that suffers at home is a higher HR/9 rate, which is virtually unavoidable. Freeland caters his pitch selection to minimize the Coors Field park factor by as much as possible and you can simply scroll across his game logs on LineStar to see plenty of productive home starts last year. The Braves are not the easiest match-up to deal with but in two starts against them last year, Freeland threw one okay-ish game and one excellent game. He received a massive price drop on DraftKings and $6,200 is really appealing for an SP2 with his upside. FanDuel didn’t give him exactly the same treatment and his $8,500 salary would be tough to swallow, so he’s strictly a GPP candidate there.

Team Stacks to Target

Note: Stacking games at Coors Field is always in play but to avoid monotony, I will opt not to highlight those teams for every "Coors Slate".

Seattle Mariners vs. Homer Bailey (RHP - Kansas City Royals)

It’s never a bad idea to target Homer Bailey when you’re in search of some fantasy production. The 32-year-old just isn’t a very good major league pitcher. Last year he had a 15.4% kRate, 4.65 xFIP, 1.95 HR/9, and 1.64 WHIP. As you’ll notice on the “Daily Matchup” page, it really doesn’t matter whether you attack Bailey with lefties or righties. However, it may be worth noting that he allows 45.8% Hard Contact to RHB as opposed to 35.4% to LHB. So when looking for the deep shots, lean slightly towards the Seattle right handers. I’d probably look to start with Mitch Haniger and Domingo Santana and mix in the guys that get placed in the order around them -- most likely Jay Bruce, Mallex Smith, and Omar Narvaez.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP - Washington Nationals)

Sanchez had several solid performances last season in what appeared to be a resurgence-type year but I don’t think I’m ready to buy into it. In 2018, he posted a 2.83 ERA but his xFIP stood at 3.81, which is about league average. However, when a pitcher’s xFIP is nearly a run (or more) higher than their ERA, then that’s a red flag indicating that a pitcher has more or less benefited from random luck. He already got tuned up by the Phillies in his season debut five days ago when he gave up 4 ER and 4 H while walking four and delivering three strikeouts over four innings. I’d feel more confident in taking the Philly RHBs, which is the side of the plate that Sanchez struggles with more. Rhys Hoskins is one of my favorite plays of the day and stacking him with Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura has potential since they’re on the more affordable side of things when compared to all of the other high dollar stacks to choose from. JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco have some upside at the bottom half of the order. I don’t have much interest in paying the premium for Bryce Harper.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP - St. Louis Cardinals)

The Dodgers are rolling through just about any pitcher they face but they are relentlessly demolishing right handed pitching up to this point. There’s plenty of ‘noise’ in early season statistics, especially after a series at Coors Field, and they’re certain to normalize. But through 273 plate appearances against RHPs so far in 2019, the Dodgers as a team are hitting for a .436 wOBA and .317 ISO with a .418 OBP and a crazy low 11.7% kRate -- ranking first in every category listed. Sure, we are just a week and a half into the season but it still doesn’t make what the Dodgers have been doing any less impressive. Mikolas has had a rough go at it through his first two starts of the year against the Brewers and Pirates. I expect him to turn things around soon and for now, I’ll respect his splits versus RHBs (.223 wOBA, .230 BABIP, 0.84 WHIP, 27.2% Hard Contact) but I’m absolutely looking to get some Dodger lefties in against him. Here are Mikolas’ splits against LHBs last year: .309 wOBA, .315 BABIP, 1.27 WHIP, 36.6% Hard Contact. Not terrible numbers but significantly worse than his righty splits. He’s also not a high strikeout guy (18.1% kRate) which is a bad recipe against this LAD team that isn’t really striking out to begin with. It’s hard to start a Dodger lefty stack without Cody Bellinger considering how he has been playing. After punching Bellinger in then Corey Seager, Max Muncy, and Joc Pederson would be my other LHB targets.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Christian Yelich (DK: $5.3k, FD: $5k) | OF | MIL @ LAA

There are so many big bats in good spots tonight, which includes Coors, so it’s tough to predict where ownership is going to lean towards among the top tier guys. Yelich is as worthy to spend up on as anyone else, especially going against a RHP like Trevor Cahill. In Yelich’s last 20 games against righties (65 plate appearances), he’s hitting a .419 AVG with an off the charts 1.197 wOBA+ISO paired with six homers -- so nearly a home run every 10 plate appearances. Since the start of last year, he ranks fourth in the MLB with his .369 BABIP and 49.1% Hard Contact splits against RHPs. Trevor Cahill is a RHP who is ‘hit or miss’ as a starter and lacks a lot of consistency. He allows a 40.9% Hard Contact Rate to LHBs. The Brewers have some scary lefties -- the big one being Yelich.

Trey Mancini (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k) | OF | BAL vs. OAK

Marco Estrada (RHP) is a pitcher with poor reverse splits and Trey Mancini (RHB) is a hitter with strong reverse splits. It's a recipe for success (in favor of the hitter) in this righty on righty match-up. Against RHBs, Estrada has allowed 2.04 HR/9, 1.63 WHIP, 5.98 xFIP while maintaining a measly 15.8% kRate. Mancini is the best part of an otherwise lackluster offense, making him an ideal ‘one-off’ hitter to roster. He’ll have a strong shot at launching his fifth homer of the season tonight.

Hunter Renfroe (DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.7k) | OF | SD @ SF

Renfroe has four home runs in his last five games but will likely go completely overlooked considering the value put on outfielders in a [likely] high-scoring slate. Bumgarner wasn’t a pitcher to be afraid of attacking with RHBs last year. He struck out just 18.1% of righties while allowing 43.5% Hard Contact (on a 35.8% Fly Ball Rate) and posted a 4.56 xFIP. Renfroe hit lefties for a 47.9% Fly Ball Rate on 47.1% Hard Contact. In his career versus MadBum, Renfroe is 5-13 (.385 AVG) with two home runs and two doubles. Is number three on the way?

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