Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/6/19 | Weekend "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Good morning! I'm going to keep the introduction pretty brief today as I want to be sure I get this out to you guys with enough time to digest. We have an eleven-game main slate that starts at 1:05 so there's no time to waste! Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines:

I'm not seeing much weather wise to be concerned with. Temperatures are still relatively cool around all the parks so no real advantage. The games in New York and Philadelphia both have winds blowing out near or just above double-digits so you could potentially give a slight boost to hitters. It's not really enough to move the needed but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Clevinger, CLE (vs. TOR) DK: $9.9K, FD: $10.8K

Yes, Max Scherzer is on this slate. Do you really need me to tell you that he’s in play? He's the top pitcher on the board. Let’s instead talk about a potential pivot off of Scherzer for a moment. Clevinger was downright filthy in his season debut going seven strong innings, allowing zero runs, just one hit, three walks, and 12 strikeouts as highlighted by this tweet from Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) of Pitcher List (@PitcherList).

You read that correctly. Four broken bats, an average velocity of 95 mph on his fastball, and he reached 99 mph hour on multiple occasions. This shouldn’t come as a surprise after his solid 2018 where he produced a 3.86 SIERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He has plenty of upside with a 25.7% strikeout rate and he held opposing hitters to just a .287 wOBA last season. He’s particularly deadly against right-handed hitters with his 3.12 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 29.3% strikeout rate, and only 6.3% walks. The matchup today further adds to Clevinger’s appeal against a Toronto team that has been no-hit through six innings four different times already this season. In 224 plate appearances against right-handed pitching the Blue Jays have a pathetic .557 OPS, .146 ISO, .253 wOBA, and 65 wRC+. They are striking out 25.4% of the time. Positive regression is obviously due as evidenced by their low .173 BABIP but I don’t see them starting to turn it around in this matchup. Clevinger and the Indians are -143 favorites and I’ll have plenty of shares of him today alongside Scherzer.

Brad Peacock, HOU (vs. OAK) DK: $8.8K, FD: $8.3K

After making 21 starts in 2017, Peacock found himself in the bullpen all of last season. He was very effective with a 2.40 SIERA and a massive 35.3% strikeout rate to just 7.4% walks in 65 innings. With Josh James missing time in spring training with an injury Peacock once again finds himself in the rotation. It may not last once James is healthy enough but for now Peacock will look to prove himself as a regular starter. He got off to a good start in his season debut going 6.2 innings allowing just one run on two hits with five strikeouts and zero walks. Oakland is certainly not a pushover lineup by any stretch but I do like how Peacock matches up with them. He has pretty drastic splits. He’s outstanding against right-handed hitters with a 2.18 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, and ridiculous 39.8% strikeout rate. He allowed just 22.5% hard contact and a .261 wOBA while forcing 23.6% soft contact against righties last season. This should give him the advantage against the bigger bats of Khris Davis and Stephen Piscotty. He’s much weaker against left-handed hitters including a 1.43 WHIP and allowing 39.1% hard contact and a .394 wOBA. Fortunately, Oakland’s left-handed batters are much less intimidating with Morales and Profar the only two possible trouble spots. He’s slightly more appealing on FanDuel today at a $500 discount but if you’re looking for a mid-range arm you could definitely do worse than Peacock, as a -173 favorite, at home today.

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN (@PIT) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $7.1K)

Couple things here. First, I’m not in love with any one pitcher in the value tier today. Matt Strahm, who had quite a bit of hype before the season started but got lit up in his debut, is likely to get some attention with his massive price drop on DraftKings ($9.2K down to $6.4K). It's a scary matchup against the Cardinals but the very low price gives him some SP2 appeal. On FanDuel, DeSclafani stands out with a $1200 discount between sites if you’re looking to save and pay down at pitcher this afternoon. His career thus far has been plagued by injuries including missing the entire 2017 season. Last year he came back and showed promise finishing with a 3.96 SIERA in 115 innings of work. He had slightly above average strikeouts at 22.3% and a solid 6.3% walk rate. His major weakness is the high amount of fly balls he allows coupled with a scary 41.8% hard contact rate. This especially doesn’t do him any favors pitching in one of the most favorable hitting environments in baseball The Great American “Smallpark”. That’s less of a factor today, however, as he’ll be on the road at the much more pitcher friendly PNC Park taking on a Pirates team that’s done very little against right-handed pitching so far this season. They have very little power as evidenced by their .106 ISO, .297 wOBA, and 78 wRC+. They are very disciplined at the plate though as shown by their low 19% strikeout rate and high 11.8% walk rate. DeSclafani will have to fight for every strikeout if he has any chance of returning value. It’s not my favorite play on the board but I can see the argument on FanDuel at just $7.1K. He's a slight underdog but it's not a scary matchup and a very positive pitching environment if you’re looking to spend up on bats in tournaments.

Team Stacks to Target

Houston Astros vs Mike Fiers (RHP - Oakland Athletics)

Amazingly, since Fiers opened the season way back on 3/20 in the Japan series, this will actually be his fourth start of the season already. On the surface, he’s off to a strong start with a 2-1 record and a respectable 3.00 ERA. Advanced stats will tell you though that this isn’t going to last. His 3.00 ERA is bound to regress closer to his 5.68 xFIP. He also currently has a very low .205 BABIP against him which should begin to rise. His 2018 numbers suggest that we’ll want to attack him as often as possible. He had a 4.25 SIERA with a below average 19.5% strikeout rate. He allowed 43.2% fly balls and 39.1% hard contact to just 15.1% soft contact. This resulted in Fiers giving up the third most home runs in the league last season (32). Houston got the bats going last night putting up six runs on Aaron Brooks and they should keep it going against Fiers tonight. The same guys we talked about yesterday are high on the priority list once again today. A low strikeout pitcher, Fiers should struggle to get outs with Bregman (12.9%), Springer (18%), Altuve (14%), Brantley (8.7%), Gurriel (10.7%), and Reddick (15.7%) all having remarkably low strikeout rates against right-handed pitching. Bregman, Springer, and Brantley standout for their power while Altuve is always a threat to reach base and potentially pick up a steal.

New York Yankees vs David Hess (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

The Yankees got the job done last night putting up six runs on Dylan Bundy including a double dong night from none other than Aaron Judge. I’m going right back to the well against David Hess. Once viewed as a high potential prospect, Hess has yet to do anything noteworthy at the major league level. His 2018 statistics were horrendous including a 5.08 SIERA and 1.39 WHIP. Those numbers also include a below average .269 BABIP suggesting he actually got a little lucky and things could have been even worse. His strikeout rate was an ultra-low 16.4%, he allowed 46.7% fly balls, 32.2% hard contact, and a .350 wOBA. His opening game of the season was impressive, no-hitting the Blue Jays through 6.1 innings, but we’ve now seen several other people accomplish this same feat as we’ve learned just how awful the Toronto offense is. I’ll be all over New York yet again tonight with players like Judge (.384 wOBA, .238 ISO), Voit (.429 wOBA, .301 ISO), Sanchez (.196 ISO), and Torres (.333 wOBA) looking like solid options. I know people are down on Greg Bird right now but he’s an inexpensive piece in the middle of this lineup and Hess was terrible against left-handed hitters last season with a 5.64 xFIP and only 13.9% strikeouts. I’ll have some shares of Bird as part of Yankees stacks on this slate.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Jose Berrios (RHP - Minnesota Twins)

On an eleven game slate I can’t see too many people going out of their way to attack Berrios but there’s enough here for me to have some interest in tournaments. When Berrios is on he’s as good as anyone but you won’t find a more inconsistent top-tier pitcher in the majors. Part of his issue last season was his home/road splits. At home, Berrios had a 3.27 xFIP and 0.99 WHIP with 27.2% strikeouts and allowing opponents just a .249 wOBA. On the road, however, things were much different. He had a 4.67 xFIP and 1.36 WHIP with 22.6% strikeouts and allowed opponents a .341 wOBA. Walks have always been an issue for him in the past as well and it’s no different here. At home he walked a solid 6.1% of batters but on the road that jumps to 9.4%. This is a bad park to not bring your “A” game as it’s extremely hitter friendly and obviously the Phillies lineup is dangerous this season. Harper (.379 wOBA, .258 ISO), McCutchen (.343 wOBA), Hoskins (.380 wOBA, .288 ISO), Franco (.347 wOBA), and Realmuto (.373 wOBA, .217 ISO) are all jumping out as strong options against right-handed pitching. I like the Phillies to capitalize on Berrios's inability to get the job done on the road today.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Ryan O'Hearn (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.1K) | 1B | KC @ DET

The Royals look like they could be a source of value against Tyson Ross today if we want to pay up for pitching. Ross struggles heavily with left-handed batters posting a 4.63 xFIP and a 1.76 WHIP. He only struck out 16.3% of left-handed hitters yet he walked 11.5%. This sets up very well for O’Hearn who has monster power against right-handed pitching. In limited action last season he had a .458 wOBA, .393 ISO, and 48.2% hard contact rate. He’s a solid option in cash today or as a one-off in tournaments. I don’t hate the idea of a mini-stack with Alex Gordon, another inexpensive lefty swinging a hot bat right now.

Jay Bruce (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.4K) | OF | SEA @ CWS

Bruce is another reasonably priced bat today that could help us pay up elsewhere. His career in Seattle is off to a strong start. He’s posted at least 18 fantasy points or more in four of his last seven games. I love the matchup today against Ivan Nova who is notorious for struggling against left-handed hitters. He had a 5.18 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and a laughably bad 12.1% strikeout rate against lefties last season. The White Sox bullpen is also dead-last against left-handed hitters allowing 3.69 fantasy points per plate appearance dating back to last season. Bruce should get plenty of cuts against weak pitching today.

Ronald Acuna Jr (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.6K) | OF | MIA @ ATL

I’m a Caleb Smith fan. He’s got descent strikeout upside and he could be useful as an inexpensive SP2 from time to time this season when he’s pitching at home in the very pitcher friendly Marlins Park. Take him on the road, however, and his ridiculously high fly ball rate becomes a huge risk. In 77 innings last season he allowed a whopping 56.3% fly ball rate and 37% hard contact to right-handed hitters. This sets up well for Ronald Acuna Jr who had very strong numbers against left-handed pitching last season including a .992 OPS, .415 wOBA, and .293 ISO. He’s a strong bet for a long ball today.

Best of luck today!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!