Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Well, well, well… we meet again for this very special occasion. The first pitch of Opening Day 2022 is now only hours away and we at LineStar are looking to help bolster your bankroll in the new MLB season. Whether you’re just now looking to get into MLB DFS or you’ve been in the game for several years, I’d recommend giving the 2022 LineStar MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide a read if you haven’t already! It’s a lengthy read but, if you have the time, it never hurts to shake off the cobwebs!

To start things off, I will note that this particular newsletter will be a bit different than what you’ll typically see throughout the season. With two games already being postponed, Opening Day now has games that span from a first pitch time of 2:20 ET to 9:40 ET. As you’re likely aware, most weekday main slates are going to usually start up around 7 ET. Unfortunately, the main slate game selections are not synced up between DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re going to instead focus on the DraftKings six-game main slate which will get going at 4:10 ET. Essentially the only game which won’t be covered under the umbrella of this slate is the MIL @ CHC game.

But I won’t spend too much time rambling in today’s intro. Let’s get into these games! And remember, the early part of the baseball season is a good time to go light on your daily spend. There are simply a slew of unknowns out there. I personally only play about 5% of my bankroll each day for at least the first couple of weeks of the season but, at the end of the day, you spend your hard-earned cash however you please! Good luck this year, everybody!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

CLE @ KC (4:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cool temps in the upper-40s but what sticks out here are significant wind speeds. Winds are expected to be blowing OUT to right at 20-25 mph! The cooler temps will help counteract those winds somewhat but I still believe the bats should get a bump, particularly lefty power hitters. Lower-end chance of some light rain but not anything that should stop play.

PIT @ STL (4:15 ET, 8 O/U): Essentially the same forecast as the above CLE @ KC game, but wind speeds are not expected to be quite as strong. Looks like they’ll be blowing OUT to right at 15-20 mph.

NYM @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): This game was originally scheduled for 4:05 ET and would have run into some possible weather-related problems but, fortunately, they elected to move the start time back three hours and now the game should play without any significant issue. Nicely done, Nationals!

CIN @ ATL (8:08 ET, 8 O/U): Fairly cool by Atlanta standards with temps in the 50s throughout the game. 10 mph winds blowing a bit right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

HOU @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): BY FAR the warmest game environment of the day with temps near 90 degrees at the first pitch and 80+ degrees for most/all of the game. Bats should probably get a slight bump.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Max Fried (LHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CIN

Fried enters off of a solid 2021 campaign which resulted in a 3.04 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 23.7% kRate, and a 14-7 record. During spring training, he hit a maximum pitch count of 84 throws so if there is a pricier arm you could feel good about today in terms of potential Opening Day workload, it stands to reason that Fried would be that guy. The Reds offense posted an 80 wRC+ versus LHPs last season, the third-worst mark in the MLB, and they’ve since lost their top bat against lefty pitching from last year (Nick Castellanos) -- Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez are also no longer on the team. The Braves stand as strong -175 favorites at home today and Fried should be expected to pitch deep enough into the game to qualify for a win.

Adam Wainwright (RHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. PIT

Wainwright is coming off of a 2021 season where he posted a modest 21% kRate, so the strikeout upside is fairly limited here. However, you’re not paying top dollar for Waino in this spot and it’s certainly likely he continues to operate as an “innings eater.” In 32 starts last season, Wainright averaged over 6.1 innings pitched per start and he reached a solid pitch count of 64 during the spring. The Pirates are once again expected to be a bottom-five offense once again in 2022 and could rival teams like the Orioles, D-Backs, and A’s as the worst overall offensive roster. The 15-20 mph winds blowing out to right field is a bit of a concern for Wainwright but he’s also not someone who gives up a ton of fly balls (30.3% FB% in 2021) and the cool temperatures should help counteract those winds as well. The Cardinals currently sit as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-180) while the Pirates carry a lowly 3.5 implied run total.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP) | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.9k | vs. SD

Feel like going down a more contrarian path? Perhaps spending down on MadBum could be worth the risk in GPPs this evening (preferably as an SP2 on DraftKings). Many will be looking to stack up the Padres bats tonight, and sure, it makes sense to do just that -- Bumgarner is coming off of an inconsistent 2021 season and the Padres (4.8 implied runs) feature a number of inexpensive but capable bats. However, Bumgarner had a promising spring training so perhaps he carries that momentum into the regular season. We can’t place much weight on small sample sizes from spring training but in three starts (62 max pitches) and 11.0 IP this spring, Bumgarner notched 10 strikeouts while allowing only a .195 AVG and 0.91 WHIP. He did give up three homers in that time and ended with a 4.09 ERA, so it’s not all pretty but there is no question he still did some nice things on the mound this spring. The Padres are of course also without Fernando Tatis Jr. (wrist) for quite some time, so there is one extremely dangerous bat that Bumgarner does not have to worry about facing.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

Brubaker is maybe not a terrible starting pitcher but he’s not the caliber of pitcher who would normally get the nod on Opening Day. He posted a 5.36 ERA a season ago with a 5-13 record. He also had a very poor 22.4% HR/FB Rate and a 2.03 HR/9 rate. If the Cardinals get under a few of Brubaker’s pitches and put some decent power on contact, those 15-20 mph winds blowing out at Busch Stadium could help carry some baseballs over the fence. Brubaker will also be supported by a bullpen that is expected to be among the worst relief units in the MLB this season. There is some solid power in the heart of this Cardinals order with Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, and Nolan Arenado all having at least a .220 ISO last season.

New York Mets (RHBs Preferred) vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin’s numbers were abysmal against right-handed bats last season. He surrendered a 6.53 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 2.40 HR/9, .387 wOBA, and .260 ISO to that side of the plate in 2021. The Mets had an underwhelming season offensively last year but they feature some quality RHBs who could take advantage of those awful splits from Corbin. Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso should be at the top of the list when building Mets stacks.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

I reserve the right to retract this prediction, but I feel like the Royals may be an offense I end up stacking quite a bit this season. They may not have the most loaded lineup but there is some legitimate potential with guys like White Merrifield, Sal Perez, Andrew Benintendi, and ROTY hopeful Bobby Witt Jr. There is some nice leverage to be had with a KC stack today since Shane Bieber projects to be a fairly popular starting pitcher option in DFS lineups. Bieber only threw for 4.2 innings in the spring and reached a max pitch count of 30 in his two starts. In that time, he gave up seven hits (three HRs) and seven earned runs (13.50 ERA). He also struck out seven batters, so he stilled showed off his trademark strikeout upside. Again, small sample size and all that, but even if Bieber is on his A-game to start the season, the Guardians (this will take some getting used to) could still be very cautious with his workload, especially because Bieber has missed considerable time with various injuries in recent seasons. Also, don’t forget about those 20-25 mph winds which will be whipping towards the outfield in Kansas City today!

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Matt Olson | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

OF Tyler O’Neill | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

3B Anthony Rendon | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

2B Cesar Hernandez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

1B Christian Walker | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Jo Adell | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

3B/SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Tyler O’Neill | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

Brubaker showed last year that he is prone to giving up the deep ball with his 22.4% HR/FB Rate and 2.03 HR/9 Rate and he allowed two home runs across his 8.0 IP in the spring. O’Neill smacked 34 homers out last season, one of which came against Brubaker is one of the five plate appearances he had against the Pittsburgh righty. While O’Neill is a better power hitter against LHPs (.349 ISO, 46.4% Hard%), he still produces plenty of excellent contact against RHPs (.258 ISO, 42% Hard%). When you mix in those 15-20 mph winds blowing out in St. Louis tonight, you can probably see why O’Neill is a solid pick to go yard on Opening Day!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Anthony Rendon 2+ Hits | +250

Good hitting conditions in LA tonight. Rendon had a promising spring (25 ABs, .320 AVG, 4 XBH). Against Framber Valdez, Rendon is 5-for-10 (.500) in his career. I like his chances at earning at least a couple of base hits this evening.

Tyler O’Neill to Hit a Home Run | +450

I might as well start things off with a prop bet standing by my first home run call of the year! As mentioned above, Brubaker posted that high HR/FB and HR/9 Rate from last season and already gave up two HRs in 8.0 IP in the spring. O’Neill does not have trouble producing power in righty-on-righty situations and, with those strong winds blowing out tonight, he could easily get the barrel on one and send it out today.

Mets/Cardinals Moneyline Parlay | +190

This seems like a spot where the Cardinals can cruise to a comfortable win at home with the better offense and better starting pitcher (plus Wainwright is one of the more likely SPs to handle close to a normal workload today) on their side. The Mets/Nationals game does feel fairly close but I’ll bank on Patrick Corbin to carry over his struggles from 2021 and the Nats lineup, top to bottom, isn’t incredibly scary -- aside from the Soto/Cruz combo… can’t sleep on Josh Bell either. But keep those guys in check, and it should be a win to start the season for the Mets