Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/6/19 | Weekend "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Happy Saturday everyone! I hope the first week and a half of the MLB season is treating you well so far. We have a six-game main slate on tap tonight. Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines:

This is a Coors slate, as you can see, which always makes things interesting. There are two solid pitchers on the mound in that game with Jon Gray facing off against Walker Buehler but it unsurprisingly still has the highest total of the night with a 10 O/U. We have a couple of young, up and coming prospects on the mound today that are interesting and some more seasoned veterans that are no longer in the top-tier of the pitching elite but can certainly still return value when the circumstances allow. There are no weather concerns for tonight. You should still check back closer to lock to make sure, but as of now, weather will not play a factor in any of these games.

Pitchers to Consider

J.A Happ, NYY (@BAL) DK: $8.9K, FD: 8.7K

Happ already started against the Orioles once this season and it definitely wasn't his best outing, taking the loss and going 4.1 innings, allowing four earned runs, and picking up just three strikeouts. The opening day jitters perhaps? This certainly isn't enough of a sample size for me to change my opinion about him today but it's at least worth noting. In 2018, Happ had a solid 3.64 SIERA and 1.02 WHIP over 177.2 innings of work. His strikeout rate was 26.2% (nearly identical to both sides of the plate at 25.9% against lefties and 26.4% against righties). When he's not getting strikeouts and he does allow contact, 22% of it is soft and he gave up just a .268 wOBA to opposing hitters last season. Despite his first start against this team being lackluster, he had success against the Orioles last year, going 3-0 in five starts with a 1.62 ERA. In those five starts Happ had 7,9,9,3, and 9 strikeouts, showing the potential upside in this spot. Keep in mind this year's lineup for Baltimore is even weaker less Manny Machado among others. The Orioles have also struggled against left-handed pitching in the early going. In 103 plate appearances they have a 26.2% strikeout rate with only a .704 OPS, .149 ISO, and .313 wOBA. Happ and the Yankees are the largest favorites on the board tonight at -170. He's my top pitcher of the night.

Corbin Burnes, MIL (vs. CHC) DK: $8.9K, FD: $7.3K

Burnes was impressive down the stretch last season coming out of the bullpen and the Brewers are looking to turn some of that magic into their fifth starter this season. He's still young, only 24 years old. So if you roster him be prepared to take your lumps from time to time. The upside, however, is tremendous as displayed by his 12 strikeouts in only five innings in the season opener last Sunday against St. Louis. He got the first nine outs of that game all via strikeout. The downside, of course, is he also gave up three home runs and ultimately wound up with a no decision. He's likely going to take you on a bit of a roller coaster ride but if you can hang out it could really payoff. For his career, across all levels of the minors since 2016, he has a solid 27% strikeout rate with just 6.9% walks and a 1.05 WHIP. I'm likely not going to use him on DraftKings today at this price. I'll find the extra money needed to pay up for someone like Happ who's a bit more trustworthy at this stage. On FanDuel, however, Burnes is underpriced for his upside. This is where I see myself putting together a few lineups with him and seeing if we can catch some of that double-digit strikeout potential that would have massive ROI. This is a tough test for Burnes against a difficult Cubs lineup but he'll have the home crowd behind him today and he's a slight -116 favorite.

Kyle Wright, ATL (vs. MIA) DK: $7.3K, FD: $6.1K

Wright, a highly regarded prospect, didn't quite look the part in his major league debut last week. He took the loss, going 4.1 innings with five walks, four strikeouts, and a 1.62 WHIP. His 6.23 ERA was right in line with his 6.35 xFIP so it wasn't bad luck - he just didn't have it. Three of his five walks were in the first inning and he did seem to settle down a bit after that. Wright is only 23, he was likely nervous making his debut, and it was a tough opponent in Philadelphia. The fifth overall pick of the 2017 draft has a much easier matchup today against the Marlins. He's worth another look. In 24 starts between Double and Triple A last season Wright had a 3.10 ERA (3.40 xFIP) with 24% strikeouts to 8.25% walks and a solid 1.07 WHIP. Miami, as you would expect, is not a team we need to shy away from. They have just a .126 ISO, .291 wOBA, and 78 wRC+ through the first week of the season and they are striking out 23.4% of the time. This will likely be Wright's last start at the major league level for a while with Mike Foltynewicz set to return to the rotation soon and I expect him to deliver a strong outing. The Braves are a comfortable -164 favorite in this one.

Team Stacks to Target

This is a Coors slate. Stacking at Coors is always in play. I'm not going to highlight either team here because it's too obvious. We'll look at some other options instead.

New York Yankees vs Dylan Bundy (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

An injury riddled Yankees lineup still can't keep me from a chance to stack against Dylan Bundy. Plus, let's be honest, a Yankees team full of injuries is still better than 75% of the MLB lineups out there. Hell, this is a team that added DJ LeMahieu, a former NL Batting Title winner, as a "depth" piece. The Yankees still have a lot to work with. Bundy occasionally flashes upside with his 24.7% strikeout rate but nine times out of ten, he's just a disaster waiting to happen. He's awful against left-handed hitters and he's extremely prone to the long ball. He had a 5.50 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, 17.9% strikeout rate, and allowed a .399 wOBA to left-handed batters last season. New York doesn't have a ton of pop from the left-side of the plate right now but Greg Bird is standing out as a guy who could do some damage in the middle of this lineup today. Bundy also gives out home runs like candy, allowing 41 last season (most in the majors - just ahead of our good friend "Big Game James" who allowed 34). This is mainly due to his 46% fly ball rate and 34.5% hard contact allowed. Luke Voit: .429 wOBA, .301 ISO, 46.8% hard-hit rate and Aaron Judge: .384 wOBA, .238 ISO, and 47.5% hard-hit rate are both standing out in this one.

Houston Astros vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP - Oakland Athletics)

If you want to buy into the 28 year old career minor league player after one impressive start (albeit against Boston) be my guest. I'll gladly side with Houston on this one. The Astros are another powerhouse team off to a very sluggish start but we all know baseball is a marathon not a sprint and there's no reason to believe these guys won't get back on track in a hurry. Brooks is a high contact, low strikeout pitcher posting a below average 18.2% strikeout rate in Triple A last season. Four of Houston's "big five" bats have a strikeout rate below 20% against right-handed pitching (Bregman - 12.9%, Altuve - 14%, Brantley - 8.7%, Springer - 18%). Only Carlos Correa is above that mark with 24% strikeouts. Bregman really stands out here with his .390 wOBA and .243 ISO against righties. Altuve (.374 wOBA), Brantley (.380 wOBA), and Springer (.332 wOBA) all make for solid options. A less obvious high upside option is Robinson Chirinos. He strikeouts out a scary 34.1% of the time against right-handed pitching but has a .198 ISO and 46.5% hard-hit rate as well.

Boston Red Sox vs Luke Weaver (RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks)

Speaking of powerhouse teams who are struggling, MY Boston Red Sox (yes, I live in Massachusetts) are off to a downright pathetic 2-7 start. It hasn't been the offense as much as it's been the pitching and the base running (how many times are you going to let Ramon Laureano throw you out before you decide to stop testing him?) Okay, rant over. In all seriousness, this is a similar situation to Houston and there's nothing that suggests the Red Sox won't figure things out sooner rather than later. Weaver has a new home in Arizona but that won't save him from his many flaws. He got banged up in his first start against the Dodgers, lasting just 4.1 innings and allowing four earned runs, six hits, and picking up just three strikeouts. His numbers last season weren't any better with a 4.53 SIERA and 1.49 WHIP. He's particularly weak against lefties, striking out just 17.6% of them with a high 10.6% walk rate and allowing a .363 wOBA. This puts Benintendi (.376 wOBA, .184 ISO, only 13.3% strikeouts), Moreland (.334 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 36% hard-hits), and Devers (.324 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 36.1% hard-hits) all firmly on the radar. Martinez, Betts, and Bogaerts are almost always in play as well.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Corey Seager (DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k) | SS | LAD @ COL

Seager is still easing his way back in after missing almost all of last season. He gets a nice opportunity to turn a corner today in the friendly hitting environment of Coors Field. He'll face off against Jon Gray who allowed 39.8% hard contact (only 12.9% soft contact) and a .354 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Seager has a .384 wOBA and .195 ISO against right-handed pitching. For those of you into BVP, there's some noteworthy stats there as well. In 16 at-bats against Gray he has a 1.248 OPS, .473 wOBA, and a .250 ISO. I'm not personally a BVP truther but when there's at least a handful of at-bats I'll take a look.

Lorenzo Cain (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4K) | OF | CHC @ MIL

Cain checks in as our top value on DraftKings today according to LineStar's projections. He's scored double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. Over his last 150 games against left-handed hitting, he has a strong .432 wOBA and a .588 wOBA+ISO. He doesn't bring the power upside but he's as sure a bet as anyone to reach base and he does bring stolen base upside with him once he gets on.

Ketel Marte (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.8K) | 2B/OF | BOS @ ARI

Can you say fire? Marte has been in the MLB perfect lineup in four of his last five games. He has at least 17 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He has over 20 fantasy points in three of his last five games including last night's 34 fantasy point performance where he went 2-5 with two home runs and five RBIs. This is an unbelievable hot streak that will obviously come down to earth at some point. But for now, there's little risk in trying to see if he keeps it going, as his price still has not caught up to the recent production. In fact, he dropped $100 on DraftKings today.

Best of luck today!

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