By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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An appealing eight-game main slate awaits us this evening. I like to think of these as “Goldilocks slates.” They’re not too big, not too small, and everything seems to set up ‘just right.’ But maybe it might sound cooler to start calling these "Thanos slates." Ya know... "perfectly balanced, as all things should be." There is viable pitching available at each price point but there is also no shortage of offenses to target and build around. Even though that pesky Coors Field is back in play (though, the weather may impact that game; see below), these are my kinda preferred slates. We will get a look at some aces tonight as a few teams are turning over their pitching rotations. Meanwhile, other teams will be looking to take advantage of some opposing bottom-of-the-rotation arms. Should be a fun night of baseball, let’s get it!

Also, I want to send out my best wishes to Fernando Tatis Jr. following his shoulder subluxation in last night’s game. He’s easily one of the most entertaining baseball players to watch and hopefully his recovery goes as smoothly as possible and we can see him again this season.

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

TB @ BOS: Cooler temps with light winds blowing IN. The slightest of bumps go to the pitchers.

MIL @ CHC: Temps near 70 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to left. This game will see fairly similar conditions as yesterday, which only saw eight runs plated but it did feature four home runs exiting the park. Slight bump to bats here.

ARI @ COL: The forecast may be flipping the script on Coors Field today. Rain will be in the area but *should* clear by the scheduled first pitch. Temps will be in the mid-40s but the wet/windy conditions will make it ‘feel’ like it’s in the 30s. Speaking of winds, they’re set to be blowing IN from left at around 10-15 mph. Realistically, pitchers should get a decent bump in these conditions but… this is still Coors Field, so they won't be without some risk. Ultimately, weather conditions for this game could be unpleasant enough that they’d postpone, so if you’re playing some guys here, don’t forget to check on things ahead of the first pitch (8:40 ET).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lucas Giolito (RHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | @ SEA

Gio is the third most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he may be my favorite hurler to target tonight. I get the feeling that the general population agrees with me because Giolito is currently the most ‘loved’ pitcher on LineStar for both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s coming off of a major career-boosting season where he posted a 33.7% kRate, 3.48 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 17.3% SwStr% while allowing just a .182 AVG. Pristine numbers all around. He looked really solid in his season debut against the Angels when he racked up 8 Ks and allowed just two hits and two runs across 5.1 IP (87 pitches thrown). Seattle has been almost exactly average offensively versus RHPs thus far in the season. In 92 at-bats against righties, they’re hitting .217 with a .316 wOBA and 99 wRC+. They’re no slouches but this is definitely a spot where Gio can thrive, especially if he sees his pitch count rise closer to about 95 throws. Seattle will go into this game with a slate low 3.4 implied run total.

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.7k | @ BOS

If Glasnow was fully stretched out to open the season, he could have reasonably been in line to pitch a complete game last Thursday. He looked great in the opener versus Miami when he threw 77 pitches across six innings and allowed just one hit, 0 ER, 0 BB, and struck out six batters -- good for 24.9 DKFP/40 FDFP. Hopefully, we can see that pitch count creep up to about 85-95 throws tonight. The Boston bats came alive last night (in a big way) and they’re now hitting .305 versus RHPs (ranks 2nd) with a .338 wOBA (7th) and 106 wRC+ (7th). To state the obvious, those numbers are of course from a small sample size… but regardless, this may not be an elite match-up for Glasnow. However, with his superb K upside (38.2% kRate in 2020) and ability to limit baserunners (1.13 WHIP in 2020), he can pretty much be considered viable against any offense in the league… until he proves otherwise. If you can find the value bats, I’m not opposed to paying up for two high-end pitchers (like Gio + Glasnow) on DK tonight. On FanDuel I don’t necessarily *love* Glasnow’s price as the most expensive pitcher on the board, but if anything that could keep his ownership low as most people will likely flock towards Darvish/Gio/Kershaw if they’re spending up at the position. Glasnow could certainly end the night as the highest scoring pitcher on the slate and no one would be surprised. The Rays are also the third-heaviest favorite on the slate as they carry -152 moneyline odds.

Adbert Alzolay (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MIL

I can’t just keep highlighting aces here so we gotta find ourselves another value pitcher... hopefully in the same vein as Carlos Rodon last night. Alzolay is the name that pops out the most to me out of the middle/lower tier of pitchers. In very limited action last season (21.1 IP), Alzolay looked solid as he had just a 2.95 ERA and 3.62 xFIP which he paired with 33.3% kRate and 1.17 WHIP. It’s unclear how deep he will pitch into this game so I don’t think there is crazy upside here. But if he does manage to get around 85 pitches in his first start, he could still end up being an excellent fantasy point/$ play. A large part of that is due to the match-up. The Brew Crew has not been great through their first four games. Against RHPs (120 ABs), they’re hitting just .175 with a .231 wOBA, 42 wRC+ while striking out 30.1% of the time. Those numbers will improve, of course, but I’ll target them until they actually show some real life at the plate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: As mentioned in the weather section, the Coors Field match-up does have at least a sliver of PPD concerns and the weather for hitters isn’t the greatest. However, the game is still going to carry the highest total on the slate and we could likely expect both the Rockies and Diamondbacks to be fairly popular this evening.

New York Mets vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

The Mets only posted three runs in their season opener yesterday, but I’m still on board with this offense tonight as they step into the batter's box against Chase Anderson. Anderson is coming off of a season where he acquired a 1.63 WHIP and allowed a .315 AVG and 7.22 ERA. He wasn’t quite as bad as that ERA would indicate, as he was backed by a not-so-horrible 4.09 xFIP. But he still put plenty of runners on base and he also got obliterated for a slate worst 2.94 HR/9 rate. The Mets bats should find some success tonight.

Texas Rangers vs. Tanner Roark (RHP), TOR

Globe Life Field should play host to plenty of runs this season and I’d expect this game tonight between the Rangers and Blue Jays to showcase that. The Rangers offense has looked very capable early on this season and most of their hitting numbers put them just inside the top 10 in several categories. They’ll get to face Tanner Roark who is coming off of a pretty terrible 2020 season where, across 11 starts (47.2 IP), he put up a dismal 6.80 ERA and 5.84 xFIP while allowing a .308 AVG and 1.74 WHIP. His 39.0% Hard Contact Rate and 45.1% Fly Ball Rate led to a massive 2.64 HR/9 Rate as well. Roark also had a pretty grim spring, so I don’t know how anyone could feel great about him as he takes the mound in a solid hitter’s ballpark.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

We’ll see just how down the general public is on these Brewer bats once their ownership is revealed. Despite my highlighting of Alzolay in the pitching section, if he is even remotely popular tonight, I don’t mind rolling out a Brewers stack in case their bats do wake up against him. Alzolay also isn’t a pitcher who has a ton of MLB experience and as long as a batting order has guys like Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura near the top of the lineup, there’s going to be some potential for some homers and runs. Similar to the Red Sox yesterday, who were also struggling in their games prior, Milwaukee carries a 5.0 implied run total and this game does possess some decent hitting weather, as noted above.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), OAK

Seager is still searching for his first homer of the season but the man is absolutely raking to start the year. He has hit 9-for-17 (.530) with a .578 wOBA, .636 OBP, and 266 wRC+ while scoring at least 12 DKFP/15.5 FDFP in all four games. He’ll draw a match-up against Chris Bassitt who happens to be decent, but certainly not a lockdown, pitcher. In his last 20 games against RHPs (56 PA), Seager is batting an incredible .439 with a .563 wOBA, .317 ISO, and 280 wRC+. The Dodgers have only a 4.4 implied run total (low by their standards), so maybe a full on stack may not be the most preferred approach. But getting some one-off exposure to a guy like Seager could still pay dividends.

1B/2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), SF

I'm going back to the well to an affordably priced Jake Cronenworth who is coming off of a 3-for-5 night out of the lead-off position for the Padres. Cronenworth is going to be one of the guys who will need to step up offensively in the absence of All World shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. He’s fully capable of handling the extra weight -- across his first 59 career games in the Majors, he is hitting a hair under .300 alongside a strong .371 wOBA, .196 ISO, and 135 wRC+. Aaron Sanchez will be getting his first taste of MLB action in quite some time, following shoulder surgery in September of 2019. Sanchez was a pitcher that we certainly would look to target quite often in previous seasons and his sparse work in spring ball definitely did not inspire much faith that he’s improved drastically or even fully recovered from the injury. He may not pitch very deep into this game, but even if he is pulled early, Cronenworth as the rest of the Padres will get some at-bats against a Giants bullpen that has struggled early on.

C Yermin Mercedes | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), SEA

Mercedes keeps raking, and we keep taking [him in lineups]. Following another 3-for-4 night yesterday, I don’t know why we’d avoid him especially since he continues to possess super affordable salaries. The man is 12-for-19 (.667) to start his MLB career and three of those hits have gone for doubles and one for a four-bagger. James Paxton may have had an abbreviated season last year (five starts, 20.1 IP), which wasn’t great. But historically he has been a quality pitcher and may not represent the most advantageous match-up for Mercedes and the White Sox. However, when a hitter is this hot, ya roll ‘em out until they cool off.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

I believe if you’re rolling out a Mets stack (see above), then Alonso is a near must play within your lineup… and I don’t mind him as a one-off target either. Alonso has exhibited reverse splits early on in his career, so he’s been a bit more effective versus RHPs as opposed to LHPs. Against righties (590 career ABs), Alonso has yammed 50 HRs while posting a .380 wOBA, .305 ISO, and 140 wRC+. Looking at his career numbers, Chase Anderson has also shown poor reverse splits, so he has struggled more against righty hitters (.275 AVG, .349 wOBA, 1.65 HR/9, 36.4% Hard Contact). So we’ve got a positive reverse splits hitter going against a negative reverse splits pitcher. It’s a great spot for the Polar Bear's home run potential.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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