Top MLB DFS Plays 4/5 | No "Bieber" Jokes Allowed

April 05, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

After a couple days of relatively unexciting evening slates, we have eight games to look towards tonight! There seems to be a good mix of some quality team stacks to target as well as some strong pitching options (no scrounging through a wasteland of uninspiring arms today!). Also, we’re starting to get a decent enough sample size with a lot of offenses to where I believe using some 2019 data, in combination with some of last year’s stats, is becoming more feasible. As a general reminder, make sure you are still practicing strong bankroll management! The easiest way to get frustrated with MLB this early in the season and feel like you just need to move on from it is to burn through your bankroll by having too high of a nightly spend. Volatility is at the heart of every MLB slate. Your break out of an early season slump could be just around the corner but allocate funds wisely!

Here are tonight’s match-ups and Vegas lines:

Our only postponement risk today comes in Philadelphia with the match-up between the Twins and Phillies. There is around a 60-70% chance of rain beginning well before game time around 5:00 pm ET and carrying through to around 10:00 pm ET. It will be cold, damp, and breezy with wind blowing in. Not ideal baseball weather and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this game ends up canceled. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will be excluding it from consideration. We’ll have to wait and see closer to first pitch what these teams decide to do but, ideally, an official decision will be made prior to lock.

Winds out in LA in the game between the Rangers and Angels will be blowing out around 10 mph. Small bump up to the hitters there.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Shane Bieber (DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.9k) | RHP | CLE vs. TOR

The Blue Jays were getting no-hit through eight innings last night and really just seem to be struggling in general on offense. They’re averaging just three runs per game this season and will face a talented pitcher in Bieber who is entering the second year in the MLB. In his rookie year, Bieber posted a strong stat line with a 24.3% kRate with just a 4.7% Walk Rate, 3.30 xFIP, and a 3.45 SIERA. He did allow a 43.9% Hard Contact Rate but largely limited the damage that number may imply by surrendering just 1.02 HR/9. In 172 at-bats this season, the Blue Jays are hitting righties to the tune of just a .169 AVG (3rd worst in MLB) and have a league worst .182 BABIP with a kRate of 22.4% (and 25.9% in 2018 -- league worst). He does have pretty bad splits against lefties but the Blue Jays are RHB heavy and there's a chance their best switch hitter, Justin Smoak, misses this game with a sore neck. Bieber and the Indians are one of the stronger favorites of the night (-150) and Toronto has the lowest team implied total of 3.4 runs.

Joe Musgrove (DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k) | RHP | PIT vs. CIN

Musgrove isn’t a major threat to go out and toss 10 K’s (20.6% kRate in 2018) but what he can do is manage a game by limiting hits (.294 BABIP) and walks (4.7% Walk Rate) while keeping the ball in the park (0.94 HR/9). His season debut start was rained out but he came in for two innings in relief this past Sunday (against CIN) and got a strikeout with four grounders, not hits, and no walks. He gets a Reds squad that is sputtering offensively in a big way to start the season, as they are dead last scoring just 1.83 runs per game. They’re not doing much against RHPs either with just a .224 wOBA and .198 BABIP -- both second worst in the MLB. They’re also not generating much power against righties with just a .096 ISO. Pittsburgh is a slight -117 favorite while Cincinnati has only a 3.5 implied run total.

Trent Thornton (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k) | RHP | TOR @ CLE

Thornton’s Major League debut came Sunday against the Tigers where he sat eight batters down in strikeout fashion across five innings while allowing just two hits, no runs, and no walks on 75 pitches. Cleveland’s offense stumbled through the first week of the season and they’re averaging just 2.83 runs per game (24th in MLB) as they continue to be without Francisco Lindor and may also be without Jose Ramirez tonight. Their wOBA (.215) and ISO (.069) against RHPs both rank dead last in the league and they’re striking out 29.2% of the time. We’re still dealing with a pretty small sample size and Thornton is still a rookie, so keep expectations in check. He’s more viable on DraftKings as an SP2 -- on FanDuel you may want to opt for a more proven guy at pitcher.

Team Stacks to Target

Atlanta Braves vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP - Miami Marlins)

The Braves have been really strong against right handed pitching through the first week of the season. They have a .368 wOBA, .324 BABIP, and a .160 ISO as a team. Lopez had some decent outings in 2018 but he is for sure a guy we can pick on. In 2018, he had just a 18.6% kRate with a below average xFIP of 4.15 and 4.29 SIERA. He also showed poor reverse splits and allowed a .341 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9 to RHBs while putting up a 4.46 xFIP. SunTrust Park can foster some strong offensive production, as the 7th most runs were scored there last year. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Josh Donaldson are a couple Braves RHBs I’d look to pair together and I feel pretty good about the chances that at least one of those guys can bomb one away tonight. Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and Nick Markakis could all work as secondary options.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Lance Lynn (RHP - Texas Rangers)

I wish the Angels had some more viable left handers to deploy in their lineup because Lynn is someone to target from that side of the plate. In 2018, he allowed lefties a .366 wOBA, .348 BABIP, and .398 OBP while posting a terrible 5.10 xFIP. He’s not overly strong against RHBs so Mike Trout and guys like Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols, and Jonathan Lucroy could be in play. But Kole Calhoun, Justin Bour and perhaps Tommy La Stella would be my preferred plays from the favored lefty perspective. Lynn should give up a fair amount of hits/runs tonight and there’s definitely some platoon potential here. The Angels are among the leaders of the slate with 4.5 implied runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sonny Gray (RHP - Cincinnati Reds)

Gray lasted just 2.2 innings in his season debut (against the Pirates) after he allowed two earned runs on five hits while walking four and recording no strikeouts on 72 pitches. The Pirates just don’t strikeout much against righties -- they had the 4th lowest kRate to RHPs last year of just 19.9% and in 193 plate appearances this season they’re notching an even lower kRate of 18.1%, 3rd best in the league. This has allowed them to post a very strong team OBP of .351 to go along with a .320 wOBA and five stolen bases. Gray is not fantastic on either side of the plate but he struggles a bit more against righties. He allowed a .349 wOBA, .356 OBP, .338 BABIP, and 4.39 xFIP against RHBs last year. Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, and Jung Ho Kang are a few Pirate righties I’ll be looking to stack tonight and I believe the Pirates in general will go under owned -- ideal for GPPs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Joey Gallo (DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k) | OF | TEX @ LAA

Gallo has a strong chance of belting his third homer of this season tonight. In his last 42 plate appearances against RHPs, he has a .866 wOBA+ISO with four HRs. Gallo’s main issue as an elite power hitter has always been strikeouts. Tonight he’ll face RHP Felix Pena who struck out just 17.5% of lefties last year while allowing a .338 wOBA, 4.59 xFIP, and 1.25 HR/9 on 41.6% Hard Contact. Add in the fact that winds will be blowing out around 10 mph in Angel Stadium, which was home to the 7th most home runs last year, and Gallo looks like a strong outfielder to spend up on. He is still discounted relative to other high end power hitters, especially on FanDuel.

David Peralta (DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.3k) | OF | BOS @ ARI

Peralta has gotten off to a very productive first week in the season and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game past the Diamondbacks opener. Peralta is excellent against RHPs, like Rick Porcello whom he’ll face tonight. Against righties, Peralta has a career .376 wOBA, .352 BABIP, and .209 ISO. Those numbers elevate even more when he’s at home. In 2018 his numbers against righties when playing in Arizona were: .438 wOBA, .411 BABIP, and .269 ISO -- elite figures. Porcello is a quality pitcher but Peralta will be, perhaps, the biggest hurdle in the Diamondbacks order for him tonight.

Jorge Alfaro (DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.2k) | C | MIA @ ATL

If Alfaro leads off tonight, he’ll likely be the cheapest lead-off bat you’ll find. He has slight reverse splits as a hitter, so Kevin Gausman being a righty on the mound shouldn’t be too concerning. In his last 44 plate appearances against RHPs, Alfaro has a .342 AVG and a .710 wOBA+ISO with three homers and 11 RBIs. In a small sample size, his BvP against Gausman in six plate appearances: 4-6 with a double, a home run, and two strikeouts. Normally I’m content with about 5 to 7 points from my catcher and Alfaro should be able to get you that and more.

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