Top MLB DFS Plays 4/5 | Cheers to a Coors Field-less Slate 🍻

April 05, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Welcome back, guys! I hope everyone had a great weekend. Monday kicks off the work week with a seven game main slate which will be void of a Coors Field match-up. I can’t speak for everyone, but I know plenty of people are not crazy about slates that feature Coors Field. You either bite the bullet and eat the chalk by rostering hitters playing in that ballpark, or you risk getting completely burned if you lower exposure (or fade outright) and the game run total ventures well into double-digit territory with multiple 40+% owned hitters crushing value.

In general, this appears to be a tricky little slate that will, in all likelihood, favor the offenses. Aside from Jacob deGrom and the Mets, who will be opening their season today following the postponement of their series against the Nationals (due to COVID issues), every other team is rolling out their 4th and 5th starting pitchers within their respective rotations. In total, ten teams currently have an implied run total at or above 4.5 runs, with six teams boasting a 5.0+ implied run total. Let’s get into it and see what kind of cash we can scrounge up today!

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

MIL @ CHC: No weather postponement concerns on this slate, so that’s a bonus! With 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left along with non-frigid temps in the 60s, this game at Wrigley Field possesses the best hitting weather on the slate. It’s not a significant boost to bats, but it definitely can’t hurt… especially for the right-handed power hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom (RHP) | DK:$10.7k, FD: $11k | @ PHI

This is about as obvious as it can get, eh? As mentioned in the intro, every other team, aside from the Mets, are chucking their bottom of the rotation pitchers out onto the mound today. I don’t think it’s all too necessary to spout off a ton of stats on him, but for anyone unaware, deGrom has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball for several years now and he looked to be in midseason form during spring ball. Simply put, he’s going to be a dangerous fade today, especially now that he is backed up by an improved projected offense. I’m going to assume his ownership will land somewhere around 60-70% (maybe higher) in GPPs. In cash games, he’s pretty much a lock and will be close to 95% owned. For tournaments, I’d say you should just take a stand on him and either go considerably over or under-exposed to deGrom in your lineups -- staying even to the field in terms of exposure doesn’t really give you an edge. If he only throws about 80 pitches in his season debut, it would be somewhat difficult for him to truly hit value, especially if Philly manages to get a few hits and a couple of runs against him. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he sniffs 100 pitches. I’m personally going to eat the chalk here and just look to differentiate elsewhere.

Dustin May (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $6.8k | @ OAK

It really is a rough pitching slate once you get past deGrom, but May should be in a solid spot to succeed tonight. He draws his first start of 2021 against an 0-4 Oakland squad that is hitting just .171 on the young season with a .250 wOBA and 58 wRC+. Of course, those numbers are formed from a very small sample size, but the A’s simply haven’t looked all that great early on. May also pitched well in spring ball, striking out 20 batters across 19.0 IP alongside a 2.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and .211 AVG. In his most recent exhibition start, he was allowed to go 5.1 innings, which gives me confidence that he’ll be able to reach about 85 pitches in his first regular season start, barring a meltdown. Pitch count is still a major concern with him though. The Dodgers didn’t allow him to throw more than 88 pitches in a game last season but perhaps they’ll extend the leash a bit more as he enters into his third season in the bigs. May does profile as more of a ground ball pitcher and has forced a 50.8% GB Rate across his 90.2 IP the last two seasons, which could help him lengthen his time on the mound and potentially position himself for a win bonus. There is quite a discrepancy in salaries for Dustin May between DraftKings and FanDuel. He stands out as a top pivot off of deGrom at his $6.8k salary on FanDuel and a worthy enough ‘spend up’ option at $8.8k on DraftKings since he could definitely cash in on a 20+ DKFP day.

Carlos Rodon (LHP) | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.3k | @ SEA

Rodon was used sparingly in 2020, so it’s tough to really judge him off of those numbers. In previous seasons, Rodon has been a serviceable middle of the rotation pitcher with above average strikeout potential and a fastball that hovers around 93-94 mph. He also had a solid spring campaign, striking out 16 batters across 13.2 IP while posting a 0.73 WHIP, 1.32 ERA, and allowing a .184 AVG. His most recent exhibition start saw him go 4.2 innings, so there is hope that the White Sox can squeeze 5-6 innings of work out of him tonight. If he continues to build on his trends from spring ball, he could very well end up as the top fantasy point per dollar pitcher on the slate. The Mariners have some guys who bring legitimate power to the plate but, through three games, they’re hitting .202 with a fairly average 98 wRC+. Similar to May, Rodon will be a major leverage play on FanDuel if you’re pivoting off of deGrom, and I believe I favor the idea of going deGrom (SP1) and Rodon (SP2) on DraftKings as that approach would still allow you to get some quality bats lined up.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: No one or two offenses stand out at the moment, so I believe ownership will be fairly spread out this evening. The somewhat obvious chalk stack would be the Dodgers, but they get a massive park downgrade from their previous series and you always have to think about the Coors Field ‘hangover’. Not that I’m expecting them to struggle… I just don’t see people flocking to them as much today.

 

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

The Rays will travel out to Fenway where the hitters will get a nice ballpark boost over the one from their previous series against Miami. They’ll also draw a match-up against Nick Pivetta, who has been an ultra exploitable pitcher the last couple of seasons. Since 2019 (109.1 IP), Pivetta has posted a very poor 5.60 ERA, 4.67 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP while allowing a .279 AVG, .363 wOBA, 40.5% Hard Contact, and 2.0 HR/9 next to a fairly average 21.5% kRate. The Rays have some lethal bats that can eat up a righty like Pivetta and I believe at least two or three of these guys will go yard today.

New York Mets vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

Matt Moore hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2019 and, despite a decent enough spring (15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 14 K, .241 AVG), he likely isn’t a starting pitcher to shy away from… especially with this improved offense that the Mets are looking to roll out. Moore had a >5.00 xFIP in his last two full seasons in the MLB which he paired with a >1.53 WHIP and a sub-19% kRate between the 2017 and 2018 seasons. The Mets were strong against southpaws last year, ranking 7th with a 114 wRC+ and .336 wOBA. Now they add a quality (yet, in my opinion, a bit overpaid) hitter like Francisco Lindor into the mix, and there are plenty of reasons to assume that they’ll give opposing pitchers fits this season.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Boston Red Sox vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

This isn’t really that crazy of a stack suggestion. There is a reason why Boston is one of the offenses with a 5.0 implied run total today. But, following an unproductive three game series against the Orioles, which saw the Red Sox plate just five runs, I do think the general DFS player population will be hesitant to trust these Boston bats, aside from JD Martinez. If there is a solid ‘get right’ spot for Boston, it could certainly come today against Wacha. Since 2019 (160.2 IP), Wacha has amassed a 5.15 ERA and 4.69 xFIP while allowing a .295 AVG, .369 wOBA, 1.56 WHIP, and 2.0 HR/9 on 38.6% Hard Contact. He’s also striking out under 20% of hitters in that span. If Boston struggles in this match-up, it may be time to increase the concern and decrease expectations. As it stands now, I believe they have a wide avenue to success tonight and I am also expecting low ownership on all these guys (besides Martinez).

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Javier Baez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

Javy Baez is the epitome of ‘boom or bust’ but if you can stomach the risk associated with him, he does bring immense DFS upside to the table. Baez struck out 31.9% of the time last year and he’s continuing to pretty much swing at everything this season with a 41.7% kRate. However, his average exit velocity of 109.0 mph leads the slate. Combined with the winds blowing out to left field at Wrigley, if Baez gets the barrel on the ball, it’s probably going out of the park. Southpaw pitcher Brett Anderson is a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t rack up many strikeouts -- <16% kRate every season since 2015. That should benefit a lumberjack like Baez who is addicted to chopping anything that comes his way. If Baez gets on base, he’s also a major threat to rob a bag as well. He stole two bases a couple of days ago against Pittsburgh.

1B/OF Jared Walsh | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

Walsh is a tough hitter to ignore following his walk-off performance last night which capped off a double-dinger, four RBI evening. I know salaries for this slate were released well before the Angels/White Sox game ended last night, but there really is no reason Walsh should be just $200 above minimum salary on FD. He was a man on fire down the stretch of 2020, and he’s picking up right where he left off. If you look at his past 20 games dating back to Sept. 6th, Walsh has an absurd .361 AVG with a .489 wOBA, .458 ISO, 193.5 wRC+, ten homers, two doubles, three triples, and 30 RBI. Astros pitcher Luis Garcia will be looking to make just his second career MLB start. While he has put up some impressive numbers in the minor leagues over the last few years, I’m not sure that is enough to make me shy away from Walsh. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Walsh nab the No. 2 spot in the order following Shohei Ohtani’s (minor) ankle injury sustained last night.

1B/2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

I’m really liking Cronenworth at these prices, especially if he finds himself closer to the top of the order like he has the last couple of games. The Padres obviously have a superb amount of talent within their lineup, and anyone who finds themselves near the top will be a candidate to knock in multiple RBIs and score some runs themselves. Over his last 154 plate appearances against RHPs, Cronenworth is batting .326 with a stout .422 wOBA and .267 ISO alongside an excellent 175 wRC+. DeSclafani is perhaps quietly one of the better pitchers on this slate, but he saw a sparse workload in 2020 and has a tough task ahead of him when he faces this San Diego lineup.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/OF Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

I’m liking Lowe to go yard tonight for all the same reasons I’m on board with a Tampa Bay Rays stack (see above). Lowe exhibited ample power versus RHPs last season, posting up a .238 ISO and 40.6% Hard Contact Rate. The primary draw here, however, is simply how poor Nick Pivetta has been the last couple of years. Since 2019, against LHBs (like Lowe), he has given up a .368 wOBA and 2.10 HR/9 behind 41.8% Hard Contact. I’m hoping Lowe can continue to increase those numbers for Pivetta.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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