Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

So we have eight games worth of MLB action today and they’re divided up in perhaps the most annoying way possible for DFS purposes. In all likelihood, by the time this newsletter reaches the masses the early games will be just getting underway and we are ultimately left with a minuscule main slate to break down for this evening. DraftKings has opted to include the TOR @ CLE game onto their primary evening slate (which, keep in mind, will start up at 6:10 pm ET) while FanDuel has chosen to exclude that game from their main slate roster. Depending on your site of choice, make sure you keep these start times in mind! For the sake of solidarity, I will be focusing on the three games that both sites share for their main slate this evening. With just a few games to break down, you may not be surprised to find that this newsletter will fall on the more ‘short and sweet’ side of things.

Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines for the games featured in today’s little three [four on DK] game main slate:

Weather: Not too much to speak for here except for the CHC @ ATL game where winds will be blowing in from left field around 10 mph, which should give a slight upgrade to pitchers. Some forecasts also show as high as an 80% chance of rain moving through the area around 9 pm ET -- just over an hour and a half after first pitch. Odds are they would finish this game up, as there doesn’t seem to be a threat of lightning or an unplayable downpour and the game should be in the 7th or 8th inning by that point anyway. Check the forecast for this game once we progress further into the evening!

Stay up to date on weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Yu Darvish (DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.4k) | RHP | CHC @ ATL

First off, if you play DraftKings exclusively and are only rolling out one or two lineups, you’ll probably just plug in Trevor Bauer as your ‘big spend’ pitcher and move on with your life. Otherwise, Darvish is the other hurler with the heftiest price tag and determining whether to roster him or not will be a bit of a conundrum. Historically, he has flirted with being regarded as a legitimate ace and has a career kRate just under 30%. Injuries derailed the 32-year-old’s most recent season and he recently got off to a rough start in his 2019 debut against the Rangers. He walked six of his first nine batters faced before getting pulled after just 2.2 innings. Darvish's fastball velocity was down from 93.9 mph in 2018 to 92.1 mph (-1.8 mph) in the opener, which could be definite cause for concern moving forward. He was supposedly dealing with a bothersome blister that has been plaguing him for a while now, as lame as that may sound. So can we trust him today against the Braves scrappy lineup? That’s a tough question to answer. The Braves fell more in the middle of the pack when it came to facing RHPs last year (.313 wOBA, .155 ISO, .298 BABIP, 20.8% kRate) and there are really no elite pitching options among these three games so Darvish may be worth a shot when looking strictly for strikeout upside. Darvish and the Cubs are slight underdogs today while the Braves have a 4.5 implied run total.

Matt Harvey (DK: $7.6k, FD: $6.4k) | RHP | LAA vs. TEX

It certainly feels like a “Dark Knight” when Matt Harvey looks to be the safest pitching option on the board. Harvey and the Angels lead the slate as -145 favorites and will face a Rangers team that is traveling away from their hitter friendly home field for the first time this year. Texas had the 5th highest kRate (24.4%) in 2018 against right handed pitching so we should expect a reasonable amount of punch-outs from Harvey tonight. Harvey had a strong latter half of the season last year and posted some of his best stat lines when playing at home. He’s not a high strikeout kinda guy these days, after throwing for a 19.8% kRate last year, but he also had a Walk Rate of just 5.6% and held batters to a .266 AVG. The Rangers have a reasonably low 3.9 implied run total as well. And hey, listen… no one’s going to be very happy with these pitching options tonight so let’s just power through this together, okay? 

Team Stacks to Target

Pittsburgh Pirates (LHBs) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP - Cincinnati Reds)

Mahle was abysmal against lefties last year. In 53 innings worth of at bats, he allowed a .415 wOBA, 2.55 HR/9, .345 BABIP, 5.54 xFIP, and a 44.7% Hard Contact Rate. Basically, he made lefties collectively look like a bunch of all-stars when they stepped up to the plate. Out of the Pirates starting lineup today, I’d look to prioritize Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson, and Josh Bell. Despite not having the lefty advantage, Jung Ho Kang has shown very solid power versus RHP as well and should also fall within consideration.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Edinson Volquez (RHP - Texas Rangers)

Volquez still has plenty of rust to shake off after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2017 and missing all of last year. In his season debut, he allowed 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB while striking out three across 80 pitches in four innings of work. In his last meaningful season (2017), Volquez had plenty of struggles against LHBs by allowing a .347 wOBA, 5.75 xFIP, and 41.3% Hard Contact Rate. This Angels team is a very righty-heavy group but Kole Calhoun and Justin Bour are a couple LHBs that should show up at the top of the order today and both make sense as reasonable guys to stack. I’ll be honest, after highlighting an Angels stack a couple times already this season, I’m more than ready for these guys to get it together and stop making me look like a putz! They’ve scored over three runs in just one of their six games thus far this season and Mike Trout’s “2019 home runs” to “$426.5 million contract” ratio still currently sits at 0:1. If the Angels can’t put up a respectable amount of runs in their 2019 home opener against a guy like Volquez, then I don’t know what sort of cure they’ll need to get things going. At the time of this writing, they have the highest implied total on the slate with 4.6 runs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Joey Votto (DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.2k) | 1B | CIN @ PIT

Votto has reached base safely in four of the Reds’ first five games and takes the plate against Jordan Lyles who he has fared very well against in his career. In 14 ABs against Lyles, Votto has 7 hits (4 XBH) including two home runs and has drawn five walks. He saw right-handed pitching very well last year and tallied a .385 wOBA and .344 BABIP while striking out just 14.5% of the time. This game has a run total of just 7.5, so it’s not the most obvious spot to look for hitters. However, it’s tough to argue against rolling out Votto even with the moderately high premium you'd be paying.

Ozzie Albies (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k) | 2B | ATL vs. CHC

You would think Albies slots back in at lead-off today after going 6 for 8 in the Braves’ previous two games, which included a dinger last night paired with a stolen base. Albies will be hitting from the left side of the plate tonight, which is where Darvish allowed a .366 wOBA, .368 OBP, and 4.64 xFIP during his 19 innings of limited work against LHB last year. Albies has also reached base safely in every game so far and there’s nothing wrong with riding the hot bat, especially when he’s still carrying a pretty discounted price tag across the industry.

Ben Zobrist (DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.7k) | 2B | CHC @ ATL

This DraftKings salary for Zobrist just seems like a misprice for a guy who is expected to be leading off tonight. He won’t bring a ton of power (.073 ISO vs. LHP) but he posted an exceptional .369 BABIP and .381 OBP while striking out just 9.6% of the time against LHP last year. Going up against a largely unproven starter in Max Fried, I would expect Zobrist to reach base a couple times this evening.

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Best of luck today!

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