Top MLB DFS Plays 4/30 | Swinging Away Straight into May

April 30, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Good news -- it’s finally Friday and, along with the workweek being in the rearview, that also typically means that us baseball fans will have an evening jam-packed with MLB action! Tonight brings forth a mammoth 14-game main slate for us to dive into and dissect. As you’d expect, with 28 teams in play, there are some aces taking the mound, viable value arms to deploy, powerful offenses in juicy spots, and sneaky hitter stacks to load up on. This one has it all so let’s go ahead and dive head-first into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

No postponement threats today!

MIA @ WAS: 20 mph winds blowing left to right. Not much help either way to arms or bats.

NYM @ PHI: Same deal as WAS -- 20 mph winds blowing left to right. Not much help either way to arms or bats.

ATL @ TOR: Temps close to 80 degrees with near 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left field. Good hitter’s park here in Dunedin, FL so it is no surprise to see a double-digit total.

CHC @ CIN: 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center. Slight bump to bats.

DET @ NYY: 20 mph winds blowing OUT to right field. I know we have a low 7.5 run total in this game (mostly due to Gerrit Cole being on the mound for the Yankees), but ya gotta throw a boost towards the bats here.

COL @ ARI: Roof is scheduled to be open at Chase Field tonight. Game time temps in Phoenix are looking to be 90+ degrees throughout. Give a bit of a bump to the bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane Bieber (RHP) | DK: $10.7k, FD: $12k | @ CWS

It may very well be possible that rolling out Shane Bieber will be a somewhat contrarian approach today. Early signs point to most people leaning towards Gerrit Cole (DK: $10.5k, FD: $12.2k) as their preferred ‘spend up’ option on this slate. It makes total sense. Cole is clearly playing like a top three pitcher in baseball, he has the much safer match-up, and Vegas pins NYY as massive -360 favorites. The 20+ mph winds blowing out to right field in New York does give me a slight bit of pause, though, considering Cole is allowing a high 49.2% Fly Ball Rate this season. Bieber is going up against a dangerous White Sox team whose 117 wRC+ against RHPs ranks 4th in the MLB and their 21.6% kRate versus righties is the second lowest kRate in the league. However, Bieber possesses a lethal 19.1% Swinging Strike % which helps to boost up his 39.3% kRate. Essentially every important pitching metric involving Bieber and Cole is elite and closely comparable and I’m truly splitting hairs trying to nitpick which one of these guys is the superior option today. In GPPs I’d give a slight preference towards Bieber due to the predictive lower ownership edge, but most signs point towards Cole as being the overall ‘safer’ option.

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8k |vs. LAD

Big time GPP play here since most people won’t often be actively attacking this Dodgers lineup this season. But, if ya haven’t noticed, these Dodgers have been riding the struggle bus for a couple of weeks now. They hold a 4-8 record over their last dozen games while averaging 3.33 runs/gm in that stretch. Over the last two weeks, the Dodgers have a poor .283 wOBA and 82 wRC+ in that span along with a high 27.2% kRate. Freddy Peralta’s 41.8% kRate this season actually only trails Gerrit Cole (42.0%) on this slate and he’s holding batters to a low .169 AVG while posting a 2.45 ERA and 3.12 xFIP. Really, Peralta’s only issue has been giving up walks -- his 5.32 BB/9 (14.3% BB%) is obviously not ideal. If he can limit giving up those free bases and hit a pitch count somewhere in the mid-90s, the K potential and fantasy scoring upside is definitely there right now… assuming the Dodger bats stay relatively dormant.

Andrew Heaney (LHP) | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.7k | @ SEA

I’m almost obligated to mention Heaney here as an SP2 candidate due to his fairly egregious misprice on DraftKings. Aside from his rocky season debut against the White Sox, Heaney has made three strong fantasy-friendly starts since then. His spicy 36.7% kRate ranks fourth on this slate behind only Cole, Peralta, and Bieber. Meanwhile, his 2.45 xFIP is bested only by Cole (2.06 xFIP). He’ll be taking the mound against a Mariners team whose .285 wOBA and 89 wRC+ versus LHPs ranks them near the bottom of the league and their 28.9% kRate (vs. LHPs) is the 5th highest mark. Heaney’s major hangup throughout his career has been his tendency to give up hard contact. However, he has reduced that to a 31.0% HardHit% this season (vs. a career 38.6% HardHit%). The Mariners have also only generated a paltry 23.2% Hard Hit Rate vs. LHPs this season -- the third lowest HH% in baseball. I feel that Heaney is easily going to be the clear-cut SP2 chalk play on DraftKings today and I believe you can still consider him as a bit of a pivot play on FanDuel. Since most people only play strictly on one of the main sites, for perspective, Heaney’s $8,700 FD price slots him in as the slate’s 6th-most expensive pitcher over there today. His $6,800 salary on DK puts him at 23rd in the SP pricing pecking order. Andrew Heaney chalk day… what could go wrong?

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Yankees, Blue Jays, and perhaps the Braves (TOR/ATL game stack down in Dunedin, FL, anyone?) stand out as the early go-to targets today and I prefer ‘em in that order myself. It’s a monster slate so if you like the idea of loading up on bats from these teams, don’t sweat the predictive ownership. It should be very easy to pivot in other areas of your lineups.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

After a week on the road, the Reds return home to Great American Ball Park where they have averaged a robust 7.75 runs/gm this season. That figure bests the second-most prolific “home offense” by nearly two runs (COL - 5.93 runs/gm @ Coors Field). They’ll look to face off with Jake Arrieta this evening who, by all means, has been pitching quite well this season. However, four of Arrieta’s five starts on the season have come against either the Pirates or Brewers -- both bottom 10 ranked offenses on the year. I’m pretty certain you could (maybe literally) roll out an extra beefy 47-year-old Bartolo Colón against those two teams and he’d be able to churn out a couple of respectable outings… and I mean no disrespect to the G.O.A.T. -- Arrieta’s opponents just haven’t been the most daunting this year. Would I be surprised if Arrieta came out and fired through six solid mostly shutdown innings against Cincy today? Not necessarily. But let’s see if those Reds bats still bring a little extra pop to the plate at home, shall we? Bats in this game will have some 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center field helping them out as well.

Minnesota Twins vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

The Twins are a bit of a boom-or-bust offense but they clearly have plenty of upside to offer, particularly within the top half of their order. While I hate saying any player or team is ‘due’, if we’re looking at Minnesota’s recent .208 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) over the last week, which is the lowest in the league in that span, it does seem that they have been receiving their fair share of unpredictable bad luck that baseball can produce. Look for their BABIP to trend back towards the .287 BABIP that they’ve averaged on the season. Essentially, on top of the high amount of home run potential this team always has (see the box score from their last game on Wednesday), we should also begin to see some more routine hits fall in their favor sooner rather than later. Brady Singer is a tough pitcher to figure out but I do believe he has been pitching a bit over his head recently. Albeit a small 35 plate appearance sample size, the current Twins roster is hitting .324 against him with just a 5.7% kRate. The Royals bullpen that will back up Singer also rates out as a pretty average unit.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Detroit Tigers vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

This stack definitely falls more on the crazier/contrarian side of things. But as hit-or-miss as this Detroit lineup is (more ‘miss’ than ‘hit’), they do still hold a .175 team ISO vs. RHPs this season (ranks 7th) and a middle-of-the-pack 36.3% Fly Ball Rate. I somewhat hit on this earlier, but as completely dominant as Gerrit Cole has been through five starts and 31.2 IP this season, he is allowing a high 49.2% Fly Ball Rate and 46.2% HardHit%. Combined with those strong 20+ mph winds blowing out to right field in New York, it isn’t inconceivable that Cole could get taken deep a couple of times in this game. Just like rising tides lift all ships, strong winds can carry all baseballs [further]. Detroit just has to get under a few of those Cole pitches to come through here and these bats will most certainly be extremely low-owned. Probably no full four or five-man stacks needed here, but you could try your luck on two or three-man stacks and see if you land on the right dudes.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

1B/3B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: 4.7k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

Not trying to chase the 3-HR night from this past Tuesday but Smyly has already been homered off of six times in 15.0 IP this season (3.60 HR/9) and Vlad Jr. has a career .202 ISO vs. LHPs. He’s also producing a massive 62.5% HardHit% over the last two weeks.

OF David Peralta | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), COL

Peralta’s last 12 games: .383 AVG, .451 wOBA, .255 ISO, 184 wRC+ and has plenty of solid history against Jon Gray (15-for-31, .484 AVG). After a 3-for-5 night yesterday, expect him back hitting clean-up.

2B/OF Garrett Hampson | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

MadBum’s seven-inning no-hitter in his previous start doesn’t officially go down in the record books as a no-hitter and it also came against my Braves, so let’s just say it never happened. My saltiness aside, I’m not convinced Bumgarner is ‘back’ by any means and I don’t mind going after him today. Hampson stands out as a quality mid-range one-off hitter in this relatively weak Rockies order. Against LHPs this season he is hitting .375 with a .508 wOBA, .375 ISO, and 209 wRC+. Hampson should hit at either the lead-off spot or second in the order and brings both solid BvP history and stolen base potential to the table.

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

Riley’s 258 wRC+ over the last two weeks (min. 30 PA) trails only Mike Trout (286 wRC+) across the entire MLB. What we’ve seen out of Riley in his relatively brief career, it’s usually a good idea to roster him whenever he’s swinging a hot bat. He possesses a career .302 ISO against LHPs and Robbie Ray isn’t a southpaw to be wary of anymore these days.

2B Jake Cronenworth | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Let’s get my man Cronenworth back in the lineup tonight, eh? Lefties are hitting .417 against Webb this season with a .497 wOBA and .250 ISO. Love JC here if he gets posted up in the heart of this Padres order.

OF Yadiel Hernandez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

Yadiel had three multi-hit games in a row this past week then got snubbed from the order on Wednesday. Maybe we’ll see him batting second once again for the Nats today and, while Jorge Lopez has been very solid this year, Hernandez has provided plenty of value recently and doesn’t need to go crazy to pay off these prices.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

After getting a few days off while dealing with some lower body soreness, Judge is expected back in the lineup tonight and will immediately find himself in a literal smash spot against Tarik Skubal. In 51.0 career IP, Skubal has given up 14 HRs, all of which came at the hands of right-handed hitters which has equated to a 3.32 HR/9 Rate allowed from that side of the plate. Since the start of 2020, Judge has a .349 ISO against LHPs with a huge 53.6% HardHit%. Skubal may not pitch deep into this game but if Judge gets a couple of cracks at him, I like his odds of going yard in one of those ABs. Also, once again, there will be those very strong 20+ mph winds blowing out towards right field at Yankee Stadium this evening.

Backup HR Call: OF Jesse Winker | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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