Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/30 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Our plates are fully loaded with a 15-game slate today but not without any weather to be concerned about, so I’m going to go with the single sentence intro and just hop straight to a weather overview before getting into the picks!

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas totals/lines:

TB @ KC: Plenty of rain in the area hours before and after the scheduled window for this game. High likelihood that this game is postponed by the time you’re reading this which is a shame with Blake Snell on the mound. No players will be featured from this game.

BAL @ CHW: It’s possible a three-ish hour window opens where this game can play between bouts of rain but it will also be cold and windy. A PPD wouldn’t shock anyone and I’m likely avoiding mentioning anyone from this game. [LAST MINUTE UPDATE: PPD]

PIT @ TEX: A possibility of severe isolated thunderstorms around Globe Life could result in a delay or a possible chance of PPD if nearby lightning is too persistent. If they play, it’ll be warm and humid -- bonus for hitters in one of the best hitters parks.

HOU @ MIN: Cold, windy, and possibly pretty wet. Bad environment for hitters in those conditions. A delay or two may be on the horizon. Or they may just decide it’ll be too miserable all around for players & fans and end up postponing.

SD @ ATL: Another day with temps in the 80's in Atlanta. Didn’t help much yesterday but always worth noting.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10k) | RHP | CIN @ NYM

The safest path today when spending up at pitcher pretty clearly would be to roll with Trevor Bauer going against the dream match-up with the Marlins, so Luis Castillo falls more in line with a GPP pick. He’s been excellent this year en route to a 1.23 ERA which is backed up by 3.60 SIERA -- which is a number I’d like to see a bit lower but again, that’s where a bit of risk comes in. He’s posting a career high 29.9% kRate, 0.95 WHIP, and his 14.0% Swinging Strike Rate ranks 12th among all starting pitchers (20 IP min.). Castillo has an identical 3.29 xFIP to both sides of the plate, so he’s been handling all batters pretty well. Though, in general, he is going to be stronger against RHBs. The Mets fall in the middle of most metrics against RHP this season: .313 wOBA, .162 ISO, 22.2% kRate, and 100 wRC+. Castillo struggled mightily on the road last season so the jury is still out on whether he’ll have turned a corner when pitching away from Great American Ball Park. Still, in two road starts this season, he is 1-0 with 16 combined strikeouts and three earned runs allowed. Citi Field is a pitcher friendly park and the Reds are -120 favorites while the Mets have only a 3.7 implied run total. His ceiling is as high as any arm on the slate.

Julio Teheran (DK: $8k, FD: $8.4k) | RHP | ATL vs. SD

Teheran is a guy who can be tough to pinpoint and “get right.” I’ll trust him a bit more when he takes the mound at home and moreso when he’s facing a team like the Padres who typically only deploy one lefty with Eric Hosmer. San Diego is near the bottom of the league in most metrics against RHP this season: .233 AVG, .290 wOBA, .143 ISO, 25.9% kRate, and an 82 wRC+. At home versus righties last year (50.2 innings), Teheran allowed only a .257 wOBA, 0.89 WHIP, and posted a 27% kRate against just a 5.5% Walk Rate. Overall, these were by far his best splits. That trend is holding true this season (.221 wOBA, 0.67 WHIP, 35% kRate, 5% Walk Rate) but with just a six inning sample size, I wanted to emphasize that this is a definite trend. So at home against a righty-filled lineup is where we want to use Teheran for the time being and he’s very affordable today with some intriguing upside. If any other Padre starting pitcher was in play aside from Chris Paddock, the Braves would probably be around -150 favorites. For now, it’s essentially a pick ‘em with both teams holding a 4.5 run implied total.

Jhoulys Chacin (DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k) | RHP | MIL vs. COL

I’m fully prepared for this to backfire considering Colorado has scored 7+ runs in four of their last five games in which all but one has been away from Coors Field. Also, Chacin has been pretty bad in his last four starts but, in his defense, three of those games came against the Dodgers and Cardinals while the other was against the Angels at Angel Stadium, which has by far the highest home run park factor this year. In that game, two of his three hits allowed were homers. But like I said, Chacin hasn’t been great with a 20.5% kRate, 6.35 ERA, 5.17 SIERA, and a 1.41 WHIP though at his prices we wouldn’t need him to pitch lights out and if you check his game logs against Colorado on LineStar, you’ll find he’s been relatively successful against Colorado over the last couple of years. Miller Park is basically Coors Field Jr. so multiple home runs given up is a possibility for anyone. On a full slate like this, you can typically find enough value bats to afford more ideal pitchers, but if you want to go crazy with some bats, then rolling the dice and punting on a guy like Chacin can realistically work out even though he’ll only pitch through five, maybe six, innings at most.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Alert: This is basically like a Coors Field notice, and I’m sure I don’t need to point this out for many people, but the Pirates/Rangers game easily has the highest total of the day with an 11 O/U, so consider them as a couple top tier teams to stack (assuming they play).

Boston Red Sox vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP - Oakland Athletics)

Ownership Projection: High

This is looking like a pretty safe team to stack tonight and a nice potential pivot off of PIT/TEX bats. Aaron Brooks has looked okay at times this year but far from someone to avoid. He has a 5.33 ERA, 4.46 SIERA, 20.7% kRate, and has allowed a .331 wOBA. So, in a vacuum, not bad. However, Brooks has given up six homers already (2.00 HR/9) and the Boston bats are finding a bit of momentum with games of 11, 9, and 7 runs scored within their last five. Brooks doesn’t show significant splits that are overly favorable to either side of the plate, so I think you can just pick your favorite hitters from this Boston lineup even if they aren’t necessarily strung together in typical stack fashion. Mookie Betts (.449 wOBA, .295 ISO vs. RHP this season) has really been getting back to his productive ways lately and would seem to be the guy to build around. Michael Chavis (.483 wOBA, .409 ISO) may be due for a bump up in the lineup order soon, as he has scored double digit fantasy points in five of his last six. JD Martinez’s four homers this season have all come against lefties but he has a 45.6% Hard Contact vs. righties but just hasn’t gotten under the pitches enough (33.3% FB Rate) -- only a matter of time before he gets ahold of one. And even Jackie Bradley Jr. at the back of the order may be a worthy punt play in a lefty on righty match-up that favors him as a hitter.

Chicago Cubs vs. Felix Hernandez (RHP - Seattle Mariners)

Ownership Projection: Medium/Low

The Cubs offense is a bit of an enigma this season, as they rank 5th in the MLB with 5.5 runs/game but it seems like on any given day they’re as likely to score ten runs just as likely as they’ll score two. Felix Hernandez has been far from terrible this year but definitely not the King Felix of old. His strikeouts have dipped to a 19.4% kRate and he is allowing a .275 AVG (.321 BABIP) with a 3.91 ERA and 3.86 SIERA. While there are probably better situations to attack, if the Cubs can retire Felix off of the mound early, they’ll get some innings against a Mariners bullpen that has posted a 4.86 ERA, 4.41 SIERA, 1.52 WHIP, and 1.54 HR/9. Kris Bryant (.343 wOBA, .188 ISO) has been playing better lately and is probably still a bit underpriced for his upside. If you can afford him, Javier Baez (.416 wOBA, .324 ISO) can always barrel one deep, and Kyle Schwarber (.306 wOBA, .163 ISO) hasn’t been all that great but he is cheap and has had an average exit velocity of 97.7 mph the last two weeks (top 95%). If you happen to catch the Cubs on one of their explosion games, enjoy the money.

New York Yankees (RHB) vs. Zack Greinke (RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks)

Ownership Projection: Low

Considering how solid Greinke has been since his disastrous Opening Day performance against the Dodgers, I doubt many will find their way to these Yankees batters. On the season, Greinke has allowed eight home runs already (1.98 HR/9) and while four of those came in that Opening Day performance, it’s still not a stat I’ll ignore against this Yankees team with some hard hitting bats. Greinke’s 24.2% HR/FB Rate currently ranks as the seventh highest rate among starting pitchers. He’s also shown signs of reverse splits, as he’s struggled much more with right-handed bats this season. Against RHB, he has allowed a .360 wOBA, .294 ISO, 3.06 HR/9, and a 4.42 xFIP. Expecting low ownership, I’ll take a shot on some power righties in the middle of this order: Luke Voit (.407 wOBA, .255 ISO), Gary Sanchez (.405 wOBA, .446 ISO), and Gleyber Torres (.320 wOBA, .191 ISO).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Juan Soto (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.3k) | OF | WAS vs. STL

In the last week, Soto has knocked out three home runs and tonight he gets a favorable lefty on righty match-up against RHP Adam Wainwright. Of Soto’s 28 career home runs, 18 have come off of righties where he also has a .394 wOBA and 147 wRC+ rating. Wainwright has struggled with the lefties he’s faced this season, as all three of his home runs given up have come to that side of the plate. Wainwright has also allowed a .418 wOBA, .359 ISO, and 1.76 WHIP while striking out only 13% of lefties. Soto is worth a look as a one-off hitter or perhaps you could run him in a mini-stack with fellow lefty Matt Adams.

Josh Bell (DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k) | 1B | PIT @ TEX

This is one of the games we have to keep an eye on the weather for, but as long as it plays, if you’re not stacking this game, I think you should definitely find pieces that you like. Bell stands out to me, as he has 15 extra base hits this season and seven multi-hit games this month. The Rangers will start RHP Adrian Sampson tonight. There’s no telling how long he lasts but against RHPs this year, Bell has a .404 wOBA and .344 ISO. As a switch hitter, he’ll take whatever side favors him once the bullpen comes into the picture and he’s likely the best overall bet to hit a homer in the Pirates lineup tonight.

Jose Peraza (DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k) | 2B/SS | CIN @ NYM

Peraza will bat lead-off for a second consecutive day after going 2-for-5 against Zach Wheeler yesterday with a double, RBI, and stolen base. The Reds offense might not be great as a whole, but taking a cheap lead-off batter against Jason Vargas seems like a no-brainer. Vargas only has a 13.2% kRate with an 11.8% Walk Rate this year to go along with a terrible 1.93 WHIP and 6.05 SIERA. Peraza also turns 25 today. Who doesn't like a good birthday game narrative?!

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen! You can find it linked at the top of this newsletter.

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