Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/3/19 - "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

It’s an all day affair in Major League Baseball today with 14 games spread out pretty evenly from 12:35 to 10:10 pm ET. As a result, we are left with a little five gamer main slate to focus on. With fewer games, there will be less unexpected variance but it also means there’s less room for error. Ownership will gravitate heavily towards two or three pitchers and probably three, maybe four, offenses across these ten teams. If you’re playing MME, use this to your advantage to differentiate but don’t completely ignore the chalk just for the sake of avoiding high ownership!

Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines for the five game main slate:

Regarding the weather, nothing stands out to be concerned about. The 15+ mph winds blowing in at Globe Life Park are mitigated by the stadium design and shouldn’t really affect your decision making pertaining to the HOU @ TEX game.

Pitchers to Consider

Gerrit Cole (DK: $11.4k, FD: $11.2k) | RHP | HOU @ TEX

If you’re not stacking a ton of big bats then Cole probably needs a spot on your roster considering he has what should be the best floor + ceiling combination on the slate. Ross Stripling (DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.3k) is the other option towards the top on both sites and has the better match-up but his upside can be limited by the Dodgers Dave Roberts’ tendency to not let pitchers go deep into games -- usually around 80-85 pitches max. Texas has some left-handed power throughout their lineup but as a team they strike out quite a bit (24.4% kRate vs. RHP in 2018 -- 5th worst in MLB). Cole had a losing 10 K Opening Day performance in 6 IP (101 pitches) and could replicate a similar stat line today -- except perhaps he’ll get those bonus points for earning a win. Any left-handed bats in the Rangers lineup today will have their work cut out for them facing Cole who struck out 41.1% of LHBs last season. Cole also had an elite 3.04 xFIP and 2.91 SIERA in 2018 and should look to shut down the Rangers today. Texas has an implied team total of 4.1 runs, which is a high total to target a five-figure salaried pitcher against, but Houston is still a -170 favorite and the main draw for Cole easily lies with his strikeout dominance.

Jameson Taillon (DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.9k) | RHP | PIT vs. STL

Taillon represents likely the most secure SP2 to target on DraftKings or a strong pivot off of Cole (or Stripling) over on FanDuel. This Cardinals lineup isn’t the easiest to face, but in 2018 they rated out either in the middle or towards the bottom half of the league in the more meaningful statistical splits versus righties: 22.3% kRate, .294 BABIP, .313 wOBA, .155 ISO. Matt Carpenter at lead-off could pester Taillon but the heart of this STL lineup is righty heavy and Taillon should be able to hold his own. Against RHBs in 2018, Taillon posted a 26.0% kRate, 2.86 xFIP, .275 BABIP, and allowed just a 28.4% Hard Contact Rate. As long as Taillon keeps the LHBs in check, he should rack up a nice amount of strikeouts throughout six or seven innings of work. The Pirates are slight -110 favorites while the Cardinals carry an implied total of 3.5 runs.

Marco Estrada (DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.2k) | RHP | OAK vs. BOS

So I don’t exactly like this play for obvious reasons, but I try to hit on three pitchers at each price point and with just ten starting pitchers to choose from today, it’s tough to not get weird with the punt play. Boston will be perhaps the most popular team stack, so punting Estrada in a GPP would have the outside chance of paying off. The Red Sox are riding the struggle bus out on the West Coast as they’ve sputtered to a 1-5 record and have started their first two games in this series against Oakland by laying back-to-back goose eggs on to the scoreboard. Surely they will right the ship sooner rather than later but it's worth noting that Boston is hitting just .190 against Estrada in their last 151 ABs. Estrada also has the potential to earn his fantasy points against the Boston lefties today. In 2018 Estrada held LHBs to a .239 BABIP, .229 AVG, and a 27.1% Hard Contact Rate. Keep expectations low, but in his last start he did toss six shutout innings and allowed just two hits against the Angels. Oakland is a +128 underdog while Boston has a sizable 4.8 implied run total. As Samuel L. Jackson would say, “hold on to your butts.”

Team Stacks to Target

Houston Astros vs. Mike Minor (LHP - Texas Rangers)

The Astros are in the best hitters park and absolutely shellacked left handed pitching in 2018. Here are their splits versus LHP: .345 wOBA (1st), .318 BABIP (4th), .184 ISO (3rd), and 123 wRC+ (1st). Minor posted a 4.53 xFIP, 20.6% kRate, 1.43 HR/9, and 37.9% Hard Contact Rate last year. When looking for Astros with a better shot at hitting the long ball, lean towards the lefties. Minor allowed 1.91 HR/9 to that side of the plate. But regardless, a complete stack is in order and I’d go as deep as the seven hole hitter and still feel pretty good about it. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Josh Reddick are all appealing to me. This stack could easily be the chalkiest on the slate so if you’re taking it in tournaments, just look to go contrarian elsewhere. The Astros stack also gets a slight bump due to being on the road and therefore they’re ensured nine innings of work regardless of score, which can certainly make the difference occasionally. Houston is tied with the Boston for a slate-high 4.9 implied runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers (RHBs) vs. Derek Holland (LHP - San Francisco Giants)

Holland had an improved season last year but whether he can sustain his relatively strong numbers from 2018 at 31-years-old is a huge question mark. In 2016 and 2017 he posted two seasons with xFIP ratings of 5.14 and 5.78, which is… terrible. Those seasons he also had kRates of 14.5% and 16.6%… also terrible. He lowered his xFIP to 4.07 in 2018 and increased his kRate to 23.3% -- both respectable figures. We’ll see if he continues to improve this season but he only made it through four innings in his season debut against the Padres after allowing 3 ER, 4 H (1 HR), and walked two while striking out five across 71 pitches. The Dodgers are typically a bit stronger as a whole versus RHP but they're still in a good spot versus Holland. I really like loading up on the LAD righties today. Even in his improved 2018 season, Holland gave up a massive 45.4% Hard Contact Rate to RHBs while limiting LHBs to just 18.5%. So Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock and perhaps Chris Taylor would be my priority for a three/four Dodger stack.

Atlanta Braves (LHBs) vs. Jon Lester (LHP - Chicago Cubs)

In 2018, Lester posted a 3.32 ERA but an xFIP of 4.43. For anyone unaware, when a pitcher’s xFIP is much higher than his ERA (in this case, over a run higher), it’s a good indication that they were getting fortunate and relied more on the ‘luck’ and randomness factors of baseball. Lester’s kRate has been declining each year since 2015 as well, going from 25.0%, 24.8%, 23.6%, and took a sizable drop to 19.6% in 2018. He also shows signs of poor reverse splits. Against LHB, he allowed a .374 wOBA, .314 BABIP, 1.75 HR/9, and 35.8% Hard Contact. In comparison for RHB, his splits were .305 wOBA, .284 BABIP, 1.05 HR/9, and 31.0% Hard Contact. Piecing together a little three man lefty stack of Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis could fly under the radar even on a five game slate. I don’t think the primary Braves RHBs (Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies) need to be ignored either. Jon Lester still has a lot of name recognition and he’s still held in high regard in plenty of people’s minds, so this should be a prime spot to attack, particularly in tournaments. The Braves have a 4.5 implied run total.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

JD Martinez (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.9k) | OF | BOS @ OAK

When targeting power hitters versus Estrada, RHBs have the advantage. Estrada allowed 2.04 HR/9 and a .389 wOBA to righties last year while also posting just a 15.8% kRate and had a Walk Rate of 8.3%. Martinez is also hitting for a .429 AVG, .553 wOBA, and .571 ISO against Estrada in his last 10 plate appearances. Oakland Coliseum is a hitters park and someone on this Red Sox team needs to break them out of their mini-slump. There are good indications that Martinez goes yard tonight.

Joey Gallo (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.6k) | OF | TEX vs. HOU

Everyone is going to be on Gerrit Cole tonight so any Ranger is going to be a massive leverage play in tournaments. Gallo may only be 2-12 in his career versus Cole but both of those hits have gone for home runs (as most of Gallo’s hits seem to do). All of the numbers clearly state not to attack Cole, especially with lefties, but Gallo is one of those guys who simply just needs to make contact one time. After that, there’s a high probability of the ball exiting the park. But this is still another "hold on to your butts" type scenario.

Robbie Grossman (DK: $3.4k. FD: $2.6k) | OF | OAK vs. BOS

It’s going to be slim pickings when trying to find value bats in order to afford someone like Cole + HOU/BOS stacks. There’s a strong chance Grossman gets the nod at lead-off tonight and Nathan Eovaldi has his share of struggles versus lefties. He only strikes out 20.5% of LHBs to go along with a 4.11 xFIP and .318 wOBA. Not terrible by any stretch but considerably worse than his righty splits. Grossman is pesky enough that he could get on base a couple times and make some things happen.

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