Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/29 "On Deck" Podcast feat. Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

It was a pretty incredible weekend of entertainment across the sports landscape as well as with a couple pop-culture juggernauts. Of course, I’m not here to talk about Avengers: Endgame or Game of Thrones because we have a nine game Monday MLB slate to get to, but I just want to take this opportunity to quickly scold anyone out there who is a movie/show spoiler -- you suck, man! The “sports guys” that I follow on Twitter seem to be the worst of ‘em. And who ‘live tweets’ Game of Thrones, seriously? Put the phone down and watch the damn show! End rant.

There are several quality pitchers on deck tonight as well as a few emerging talents that should be worth considering. We have a ton of ways to attack this slate on the mound and, off the rip, I don’t foresee one overly ‘chalky’ route for people to take, so ownership should be more evenly distributed than what we may be used to. There are also no offenses that are in sure-fire smash spots, as none of tonight’s 18 teams have a team implied total over five runs. We don't have any real weather concerns but temps in New York, Minnesota, and Chicago will be pretty brisk, which could help the pitchers in those games slightly. Also, mid-80's temperatures in Atlanta bodes well for hitters.

Here are tonight’s match-ups & Vegas totals/lines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Patrick Corbin (DK: $10.2k, $9.7k) | LHP | WAS vs. STL

You never want to knock Verlander out of consideration regardless of who he is matched up against on any given night. Tonight though, at the top of pitcher pricing, I am tempted to lean towards Corbin who has a similar ceiling as Verlander but comes at a discount, especially on FanDuel, and should carry less ownership. Corbin is off to a really strong start to his Nationals career as he backs up his 2.48 ERA with a 3.15 SIERA, 30.7% kRate, 0.92 WHIP, and a 12.7% Swinging Strike Rate. The Cardinals can be a dangerous team to face, however, as they rank fifth in the MLB scoring 5.52 runs/game. But against lefties, they have been pretty sub par. They have the lowest batting average against LHBs this season with a .193 AVG to go along with a .295 wOBA, .171 ISO, 22.3% kRate, and 83 wRC+. At -139, Corbin and the Nats aren’t heavy favorites tonight but he’s a double digit strikeout threat in a beatable match-up at home, so I’ll absolutely take some shares.

Zack Wheeler (DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.6k) | RHP | NYM vs. CIN

Wheeler is coming off of a gem against the Phillies where he threw seven scoreless innings while racking up 11 strikeouts on 105 pitches. This should be another nice match-up for the righty, as he gets a Reds team who only has a .206 AVG (.240 BABIP), .277 wOBA, .162 ISO, 66 wRC+, and 24.4% kRate against righties this season. The Reds also have the 11th lowest hard contact rate versus RHP at 35.7%. This should line up nicely for Wheeler who has allowed just 26.3% hard contact this season -- the sixth lowest percentage of any starting pitcher (20 IP min.). The cooler weather in a pitchers park like Citi Field should also give him a nice little boost as well. The Mets are -150 favorites against the Reds who have only a 3.4 implied run total.

John Means (DK: $7k, FD: $7k) | LHP | BAL @ CWS

Means is making a case for a more permanent role in the Orioles starting rotation after his most recent match-up against this same White Sox team where he allowed just one run on four hits across five innings while fanning six. He also saw his pitch count hit a season (and career) high of 92 pitches, which is a promising sign of trust in a guy who has just 24 innings pitched as a professional. He’s allowed an absurdly (and unsustainably) low 16.4% hard contact this season -- the lowest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 20 innings pitched. The White Sox are a pretty middling team against LHP with a .304 wOBA, .123 ISO, 90 wRC+, and 25.6% kRate. For his DFS salaries, you don’t need him to pitch a gem and he could return plenty of value in another five inning outing. My main concern is simply with the quick turnaround of facing the White Sox just five days ago. They’ll be a bit more prepared for him this go ‘round. Baltimore will be a +125 road underdog tonight with Chicago holding a 4.6 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Atlanta Braves vs. Nick Margevicius (LHP - San Diego Padres)

Projected Ownership: High

The Braves are in perhaps the best spot among offenses tonight, as they’re going against a young lefty in Margevicius and they have absolutely rocked left-handed pitching this season. They’re near the top of essentially every key metric versus LHP: .301 AVG (2nd), .391 wOBA (1st), .259 ISO (1st), .383 OBP (1st), and 144 wRC+ (3rd). Margevicius has shown promise through the first 25 innings of his professional career but this could certainly turn into his toughest test to date. It’s starting to heat up in Hotlanta, as temperatures should be in the mid-80’s around the time of first pitch -- a definite positive for hitters. Also, in the future I'll try not to say "Hotlanta" ever again. It’s a small sample size but Margevicius has shown signs of reverse splits with a .374 wOBA, 1.42 WHIP, and 6.90 xFIP allowed to LHBs. But regardless of handedness, I’d look to stack anyone hitting from the six hole and up in the Braves order: Albies, Donaldson, Freeman, Acuna Jr., Markakis, and Camargo all have some strong appeal.

Los Angeles Dodgers (LHBs) vs. Jeff Samardzija (RHP - San Francisco Giants)

Projected Ownership: Medium/Low

Samardzija has shown pretty extreme splits this season and is allowing a lot of production to lefties: .289 AVG (.379 BABIP), .369 wOBA, .222 ISO, to go with a 1.69 WHIP. The Dodgers are one of the best, if not the best, team against RHP this year, as they have a .356 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 124 wRC+. Their 42.1% hard contact rate off of righties is also the fifth highest in baseball. Samardzija has easily allowed the highest hard contact rate this season among all pitchers (20 IP min.) at 52.6%. Despite the tougher hitting environment at Oracle Park and the relatively low 4.1 implied team total, I’d look to stack up this Dodgers team that can erupt in any match-up and in any park. They may also carry lower ownership given those two factors that I just mentioned. Prioritize the power lefties. The big three to target are Cody Bellinger (.617 ISO, .522 wOBA vs. RHP this season), Joc Pederson (.458 wOBA, .467 ISO), and Max Muncy (.323 wOBA, .147 ISO).

New York Mets (LHBs) vs. Tanner Roark (RHP - Cincinnati Reds)

Projected Ownership: Medium/Low

Roark hasn’t had his best stuff this season across seven combined innings against lefties. He’s allowing a .432 AVG (.452 BABIP), .544 wOBA, .324 ISO, 3.14 WHIP, and has posted a terrible 8.94 xFIP. These are all numbers that will obviously improve for him as the season progresses but I’ll still attack him with some Mets lefties that are typically always grouped near each other in the lineup. Michael Conforto (.422 wOBA, .269 ISO vs. RHP this season), Jeff McNeil (.387 wOBA, .434 OBP), and Brandon Nimmo (.307 wOBA, .138 ISO, .365 OBP) would be my go-to lefties in this order. I really doubt Robinson Cano plays tonight after he got hit in the hand by a pitch for the second time this week yesterday and is likely still dealing with a lot of swelling -- so keep an eye on his replacement as a potential cheap bat to deploy.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Trevor Story (DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.5k) | SS | COL @ MIL

Story is swinging a very hot bat this month and he has hit safely in all 16 games since April 11th. In that span, he has a .358 AVG, .419 wOBA, .239 ISO with three homers, five doubles, and a triple. I’d prefer to attack Zach Davies with lefties but when a guy is this honed in like Story is I don’t think you should concern yourself with RvR or LvL match-ups. I typically won’t target many Rockies outside of Coors Field but Miller Park is still one of the most favorable hitter's parks and there’s no shortage of thunderous smacks that go out in Milwaukee.

Howie Kendrick (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k) | 2B/3B | WAS vs. STL

Kendrick has had a great fantasy floor for the majority of this season and his DFS prices remain relatively suppressed due to not always being in the Nats lineup. He has a .333 AVG, .436 wOBA, .333 ISO, and a .421 OBP this year. As long as he is in the starting lineup tonight, he’ll land near the top of the order against Michael Wacha who is letting plenty of base runners aboard with a 1.59 WHIP and 14.6% Walk Rate. Also, while it isn’t a significant sample size at all, it may be worth noting that against Wacha, Kendrick is 9 of 13 (.692 AVG) with a home run and a .733 OBP and 1.036 wOBA+ISO.

Jesus Aguilar (DK: $3.3k, FD: $2k) | 1B | MIL vs. COL

This is certainly a tough guy to recommend right now because Aguilar is having an atrocious season (.123 AVG, .178 wOBA, .027 ISO, .217 OBP) but at a certain point he has to snap out of this slump. Right? This is a dude who, just last season, was hitting .274 AVG, .374 wOBA, .264 ISO with a .352 OBP and 35 home runs. We’ve seen Chris Davis and Jose Ramirez snap out of similarly bad 2019 slumps so I don’t mind targeting Aguilar with some exposure until it’s just 100% evident that he’s inexplicably washed up. Assuming he is in the lineup, the Brewers will typically slot him in the four or five hole, especially in righty on lefty match-ups like the one he would have tonight against LHP Kyle Freeland.

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