Top MLB DFS Plays 4/29 | Mini Main Slate Mania

April 29, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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It’s a split slate Thursday with a little four-game main slate on the docket for this evening. Note: DraftKings will also be including the second game of the DET@CWS doubleheader onto its main slate (remember, that game will play only seven innings). I’ll primarily focus on the mutually shared games but may try to mention a couple of plays from that doubleheader game for the DK folks, simply due to the lack of options tonight. On days like these, I usually opt to go a bit lighter on my bankroll and only focus on GPPs, but to each their own! It’s also a big night for football fans with the first round of the NFL draft going on and I’ll certainly be locked into that myself from start to finish (while maybe throwing my Braves game up on a second screen). But despite the modest stature of this slate, there are still contests with major payouts posted and somebody has to win ‘em! Hopefully, it’s some people from the LineStar fam!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

CHC @ ATL: Temps in the mid-70s with winds blowing IN from right at 10 mph. Very slight downgrade to bats.

BOS @ TEX: Can’t find any info on whether or not the roof will be open in Texas tonight but looking at the forecast in Arlington, it seems like there could be some chances for rain so I imagine they keep it closed.

COL @ ARI: Roof is scheduled to be open at Chase Field in Phoenix tonight. Local temps will be just over 90 degrees at the time of first pitch and near 90 for the entire game. That bodes well for hitters in this one!

DET @ CWS: (Doubleheader Game 2) Chance for a passing shower. Doubt it would be anything serious enough to cause a delay/PPD, but they showed how touchy they are with the forecast when they PPD the game yesterday. The forecast wasn’t too ugly and ultimately they could have played about two hours in dry conditions last night and probably finished a complete game. Just keep an eye on things here if you’re playing guys in this seven inning match-up.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Trevor Bauer (RHP) | DK: $11.3k, FD: $11k | @ MIL

Not going to spend much time here because this is about as obvious as it gets. Bauer is the only stud pitcher available this evening and I believe you begin this slate determining what your stance on him will be. Even in GPPs, I imagine his ownership will push about 70%, maybe even higher, because it’s just an ugly slate for pitchers. If you want to be different from the field (in tournaments), either go basically 100% exposure with him or around 20%-50%. If you really don’t think he’ll come close to paying off his lofty salaries, then feel free to outright fade. It’s risky, but bold stances are what these sort of slates demand.

Adbert Alzolay (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ATL

I don’t love picking on the Braves here, especially since it seems that their offense is finally starting to click consistently (or they just love hitting well against the Cubs). But Alzolay’s 29.8% kRate trails only Bauer on the slate. While his ERA sits at 5.40, he boasts a very respectable 3.33 xFIP so we can chalk up his high ERA to some bad baseball luck. Otherwise, he is allowing just a .173 batting average alongside a 0.93 WHIP. The risk is obvious, as the Braves are very tough against RHPs: 119 wRC+ (ranks 2nd), .349 wOBA (t-1st), .214 ISO (1st). But we definitely can’t use the SP on the Braves side of this game since Bryse Wilson probably only goes about three innings while pitching on just three days rest. If the Braves offense that basically got one-hit across 14 innings of a doubleheader against Arizona a few days ago shows up today, Alzolay could find some nice success.

Kyle Gibson (RHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BOS

First off, I doubt I’d really look to go here on FanDuel at that $9,200 price tag, simply because the strikeout upside isn’t really there for Gibson (20.7% kRate). I’d consider finding the extra $1,800 in salary and just eating the Bauer chalk. However, Gibson is in play on DraftKings simply because he is capable of eating up six or seven frames and maybe getting a strikeout per inning while hitting that 20 DKFP threshold -- I would take that all day for a $7,000 pitcher. The Red Sox are clearly not an ideal match-up but Gibson has played surprisingly well against some tough competition this season and he is holding onto a 2.30 ERA backed up by a respectable 3.67 xFIP and 1.17 WHIP. It would seem that the cutter, which he has added into his pitching arsenal this year, is paying off some dividends. The wheels may fall off at any time for Gibson, but hopefully, it won’t be today! That Red Sox offense has also been fairly anemic lately, scoring three runs or less in five of their last seven games.

DraftKings Only:

Matthew Boyd (LHP) | DK: $8,500 | @ CWS

This isn’t confirmed at the time of this writing, but it seems that it will be Boyd vs. Dylan Cease taking the mound in game two of the Tigers/White Sox DH. While it’s a difficult match-up for Boyd, I’m mentioning him here because if he happens to pitch through seven innings (as he has done in three of his last four starts, and 6.2 IP in the other game), then he’ll receive the “complete game” bonus. And, if he somehow holds the White Sox scoreless through seven, he’ll snag the CGSO bonus and, presumably, the win bonus as well. That’s an additional nine fantasy points that become a bit more likely due to the seven inning doubleheader format and we’ve seen several pitchers benefit from that already this season. I would say Dylan Cease ($7,400) is in play for this strategy as well, but he hasn’t pitched beyond 4.2 IP yet this season -- though he has shown some decent K upside (25.3% kRate) and he’s throwing about 90 pitches a game. More one or two pitch outs and a slightly increased pitch count could feasibly get him through seven innings.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It’s tough to say who will be popular, even on this small slate. Since the majority of lineups will likely be allocating a large chunk of salary to Trevor Bauer, I don’t see a ton of ownership going towards pricey stacks. Though my best guess is that the recently very hot Braves bats may end up being fairly popular if people can find a couple of other value bats they’re comfortable with ‘punting’.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Well, I guess I'm officially a Diamondbacks stan now. They've gone from popping up in the 'crazy stack that just might work out' section and have graduated to a stack I'll routinely look to load up on. I believe it's another day where we look to get some pieces of this D-Backs squad as they're simply swinging some hot bats. Over the last two weeks, Arizona’s .333 wOBA ranks 4th in the MLB, .200 ISO ranks 2nd and 109 wRC+ ranks 6th. Senzatela is off to a pretty rough start to the season, sporting a 5.76 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, and just a 13.3% kRate. Most of his innings this season have come at Coors Field, but historically he’s actually been a bit worse on the road. The Rockies bullpen has also been pitching very poorly with a league-worst 1.59 WHIP and .280 opponent batting average. Also, remember the roof is scheduled to be open in Phoenix tonight where temps should hover around 90 degrees all game. I’m hoping for another D-Backs offensive barrage tonight with hopefully a couple of deep shots mixed in.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

Normally the Dodgers get filed under the “chalk stack” section, but they’ve lost seven of their last ten games while averaging 3.7 runs/game in that span so *maybe* the public will be a little lukewarm on them? But, again, there are so few options today so a good portion of people will probably be looking to go here. They’re clearly in a slump but this is a super talented lineup and I don’t mind stacking the Dodgers, even if they will be a little popular. They’re facing off with Eric Lauer who is making his 2021 debut and has only pitched 11.0 MLB innings since 2020. He’s not a high strikeout guy (20.6% career kRate) and has allowed plenty of base runners with a 1.50 career WHIP. He also has allowed a high 40.6% Hard Contact Rate throughout his career as well. I doubt he pitches too deep into the game so he’ll be followed up by a slew of Brewers relievers whose collective 4.47 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, and 1.38 WHIP all rank inside the bottom 10 among MLB bullpens.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Trevor Bauer (RHP), LAD

If you’re only playing one or just a few lineups, I wouldn’t recommend deploying many, if any, Brewer bats. But obviously, Bauer will be by far the chalkiest pitcher on the slate so there’s easy leverage to be had if you even just stack two or three Milwaukee hitters against him. All Brewer bats will be very, very low owned. Bauer is having another excellent season but, hey, he has been taken deep three times in his previous two starts while allowing eight hits. Maybe you can get lucky by picking the correct guys that are responsible for what little damage Bauer may allow today.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Adbert Alzolay (RHP), CHC

Freddie seems to be the ‘Cubbie Killer’ so far this season. In six games against Chicago, Freeman is 10-for-21 (.476) with a .644 wOBA and .524 ISO. He’s smacked three homers off of Cubs pitching as well as a couple doubles to boot. I know I wrote up Alzolay above, but he has definitely struggled against lefty bats (career vs. LHBs: .354 wOBA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.14 xFIP), so I believe Freeman can continue his Cubbie crushing campaign today. Also, even though he laughed it off, I bet he’s looking to get a little revenge after getting struck out by Anthony Rizzo in “positional player pitching garbage innings” last night.

2B/OF Nick Solak | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

Solak is crushing it this season and his 183 wRC+ ranks 14th in the MLB among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. He’s been even more lethal versus lefty pitching this season, hitting .343 with a .448 wOBA, .314 ISO, 199 wRC+, and 42.9% HR/FB Rate. Perez is giving up a fair amount of fly balls this season (34.5% FB%) so don’t be shocked if Solak gets under another one and sends it over the fence today. His salary is criminal on FanDuel.

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), ATL

I know the Cubs bats are struggling, but Rizzo is too good of a hitter to be this affordable. He’ll also be going up against a bunch of bullpen arms today and played well against Atlanta pitching in their previous series a couple of weeks back, which was highlighted by a two-homer day on 4/18.

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

There isn’t a ton of standout value at the moment. Tapia may not light the box score on fire but he almost always at least gives ya something out of the lead-off spot and possesses a .500 AVG against Weaver in 11 career PA. He brings some stolen base potential to the table as well. Another cheap value option I may roll with, if he’s hitting lead-off, is OF Willie Calhoun (DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k) for the Rangers.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Carson Kelly | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Kelly didn’t hit a homer yesterday, so it would seem that he is officially ‘due’ if we’re going by recent trends. In his last 11 games, he has blasted out six home runs while accounting for an astronomical 1.116 wOBA+ISO. I’d prefer it if he were facing a lefty, but Senzatela has shown some poor reverse splits thus far this season so I think Kelly has a very solid chance to knock another one out tonight. Also, it can only stand to help with the roof open at Chase Field and 90 degrees game time temps in Phoenix.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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