By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

It’s another jam-packed Friday with all 30 teams in action. And allow me to refer to the chat and quote LineStar subscriber “unknown” with this intro: “Buckle your seatbelts, fellas, we got a thick ‘n juicy 13 gamer that just walked through the door.” I’d say that’s one way to put it, my man. This 13-game main slate is like a beautiful woman and if you don’t treat her with some respect, she’s gonna break your heart.

With the Rockies returning home from their seven-game road trip, that will mean Coors Field is back on the docket. Overall, eight of the 26 teams on the slate currently carry an implied run total of at least 4.5 runs, which is quite high given the standards set in this new dead-ball era (along with cooler weather continuing to play a factor). I’m personally not in love with the pitching options as a whole today but, for the most part, that aspect of MLB DFS has been fairly easy to get right even if it means eating some chalk at the position. So let’s see if we can continue to nail our picks with those guys stepping on the mound while also trying to find some hitters/stacks that can actually come through for us as well! Suit up, strap in, and let’s see if we can kick this weekend off right!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Overall, cooler temperatures are a negative factor for the offenses but some outdoor game locations will see temps in the 70s at first pitch today. Bring on the warmer weather!

LAA @ CWS (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Looks like they’ll be starting dry in Chicago but the risk of rain enters the picture in the later innings. Some caution should be exercised here but let’s wait and see what the forecast looks like closer to lock before ruling anyone out of DFS consideration.

PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph. The pitchers get a bump.

NYY@ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Near 20 mph winds but they’ll be blowing right to left, though they could blow OUT to left at times which would give the bats a decent bump. Rains will be arriving in KC later into the evening but it seems like they *should* get this game played before things get wet. Double-check the forecast here closer to lock as well.

ARI @ STL (8:15 ET, 7 O/U): Winds blowing IN from right at 10-15 mph. Rain could be around pregame but once it’s clear, it should stay that way for the remainder of the evening. Can’t completely rule out some sort of delay, however.

CIN @ COL (8:40 ET, 10 O/U): The stiffest winds of the day appear to be out at Coors Field. Upwards of 20+ mph to start the game (with stronger gusts) and getting down to around 15 mph in the later innings. They could mostly be blowing left to right but may also shift to blowing IN from left. It’s still Coors but perhaps not the most ideal conditions for hitters today.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | @ KC

Dropping $10k on Cortes would’ve caused me to raise an eyebrow last season even though he was trending up as a full-time starter towards the end of the year. But he’s been absolutely filthy this year and essentially unhittable at times. Cortes leads all MLB starting pitchers with an astronomical 44.6% kRate this season. To go along with the slew of strikeouts, across his three starts and 15.2 IP, he has posted a 1.15 ERA, 1.42 xFIP, 1.26 SIERA, and opponents are hitting just .132 with a .187 wOBA. So, what has Cortes pitching like a Cy Young candidate? The cutter. Cortes began mixing in this new cutter of his into his pitching arsenal last season, throwing it 23.6% of the time. This year, he has ramped things up drastically and has thrown his cutter on 40.2% of pitches. The Royals hitters have been decent against the cutter this season, hitting .250 with just a 15% kRate. And, overall, they’re striking out just 18.6% of the time against LHPs. While they are not a strikeout-heavy team, they’ve been miserable otherwise and against lefties, they’re hitting just .184 (ranks 28th) with a .256 wOBA (29th) and .078 ISO (27th). If those 20 mph winds at Kauffman Stadium shift towards left field, that’d be cause for concern for Cortes. Also, given KC’s low strikeout rate, I’d view Cortes as a bit of a riskier option simply because he may have trouble maintaining his high kRate which will make paying off his $10k DFS salaries more difficult. But after throwing 72, 88, and 91 pitches progressively over his three starts in 2022, we may see him push for a 100-pitch workload. There’s still plenty of upside with the guy but just know that it’s not the best spot for him to produce more crazy strikeout numbers. The fact that his O/U on strikeouts tonight is set at 5.5 is a tad concerning, especially since the odds for the under on that K total is as low as -154 (BetMGM).

Alex Wood (LHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. WAS

Similar to Cortes, Alex Wood is another lefty who is in a nice spot against a defunct offense that just happens to not strikeout very much. The Nationals have a league-low 16.4% kRate against LHPs this season. But, by other primary metrics, they’ve been pretty terrible: .211 AVG, .269 wOBA, .074 ISO, 71 wRC+ -- those numbers rank them inside the bottom 10 in all categories. Wood just pitched against Washington in his last start, which is a slight concern, but he threw a solid game (5.0 IP, 77 PC, 5 K, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 ER) and this time he faces them in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Wood’s first year with the Giants was last year, but in 23 career games pitched at Oracle Park, he has come away with a 3.86 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, .213 opp AVG, and a 25.6% kRate. There is some concern to be had because he threw only 77 pitches in that last start after throwing 86 and 87 pitches in his first two games. But he simply got in a bit of trouble in the fifth inning last game (allowed three consecutive hits, including a HR) which can explain the early exit. The Giants entrusted Wood with ~100 pitch count workloads regularly last season so his leash may get extended noticeably further tonight, especially since the Giants bullpen has pitched an MLB-high 32.1 innings over the last week.

The Nationals are currently on an eight-game losing skid where they’ve averaged two runs per game in that stretch. That skid may likely continue tonight against the very heavily favored Giants (-230). Washington also has a low 3.2 implied run total and, if recent history is any indication, they’ll struggle to score more than a couple of runs tonight.

DraftKings Preferred:

Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CLE

Montas is a noticeably better value on DraftKings where he sits as the 11th-most expensive pitcher. On FanDuel, he’s THE most expensive pitcher so clearly, there is not as much meat on that bone -- he’s still viable, but other guys simply have similar upside at lower price tags. Montas draws the match-up with the feast or famine Guardians who seem to have two offensive outcomes. In 19 games they’ve scored two runs or fewer 11 times and five-plus runs seven times. Overall, they rank 3rd in the MLB with a 126 wRC+ vs. RHPs but those offensive numbers are skewed from those explosion games. They’re still a dangerous offense but Montas has been extremely solid, specifically across his last three games where he has pitched at least six full innings (19.2 IP total) and accumulated a 1.83 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 0.66 WHIP, .147 opp AVG, and a 26.4% kRate. In 46 PA against Montas, the Guardians hitters have just a .146 AVG, .195 wOBA, .049 ISO, and they’ve scored zero runs. Montas is also at home in the very pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. It should be a nice and peaceful environment to pitch in as long as the 12 A’s fans don’t make too much racket.

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. BOS

Bradish isn’t in the player pool on FanDuel so you couldn’t play him there even if ya wanted to. But this is a rookie getting the call up to make his MLB debut and, at the stone-cold minimum salary for pitchers, he’s an intriguing SP2 punt play at $4,000 on DraftKings. Bradish is the 10th-ranked prospect in the Orioles farm system (via MLB.com) and it would appear that he’s got some decent stuff. In three starts in Triple-A this year, Bradish has thrown 15.0 innings and has come away with a 1.20 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 0.73 WHIP, .148 opp AVG, and (most intriguingly) a 29.8% kRate. In a more extensive sample size, Bradish also produced a strong 27.8% kRate in 21 games (86.2 IP) last year at the Triple-A level. Surely they’ll hit their stride at some point but the Red Sox's offensive struggles early in this season are well-documented and they’ve scored two runs or fewer in seven of their last ten games. Against RHPs, they rank 27th with a 76 wRC+ with a fairly average 22.1% kRate. Expectations should always be kept in check for guys making their MLB debuts but if Bradish can provide four or five solid innings while translating that strikeout potential over against these Boston hitters, he’ll have plenty of potential to provide significant fantasy point per dollar results. Or he gets rocked and doesn’t make it out of the second inning… let’s find out!

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Colorado Rockies vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Cincinnati Reds vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Note: DraftKings didn’t give the typical “Coors price bump” to the Reds bats whatsoever. Aside from Jonathan India ($3,500), every Reds hitter is under $3,000. Expect significant ownership on many of these guys.

Other Stacks to Consider:

New York Yankees vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

I always feel a little gross throwing out the Yankee stack suggestion but, after another 10-run performance yesterday, they continue to be the hottest offense in baseball. They have a massive league-leading 174 wRC+ over the last week, including a 180 wRC+, .412 wOBA, and .299 ISO in 85 plate appearances against LHPs during that time. Overall on the season, they’re 5th in the MLB with a 127 wRC+ vs. LHPs. So, that brings us to lefty Kris Bubic who is tasked with facing the red hot Yankees hitters tonight. Bubic has been nothing short of a train wreck to begin the season. He has three starts under his belt but he hasn’t been able to make it past the second inning in two of those games. It is just a 7.0 IP sample size for Bubic, but in that time he has come away with a 14.14 ERA, 6.94 xFIP, 7.18 SIERA, 3.00 WHIP, and .488 opp wOBA. To say those numbers are the worst among the day’s starters would be a massive understatement.

Now, Bubic is not great but he also hasn’t been a downright terrible starter across his career. He also had decent numbers in the spring, albeit a small 5.0 IP sample size. But, outside of a few select aces, with the way they’re playing, the Yankees would fall on the stack radar today no matter who they were facing. The Royals bullpen has made a decent turnaround after an awful start to the very beginning of the season, but they still account for a 1.38 WHIP and .247 opp AVG -- both figures being the third-highest among MLB bullpens. Those stiff 20 mph winds may also shift to blowing towards the outfield at Kauffman Stadium tonight which would be another plus for the Yankees hitters. Just keep an eye on the forecast closer to lock since there is a threat of rain later in the evening in Kansas City.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu | Sneaky Bat: Gleyber Torres

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

When the Cardinals are going up against a lefty, they deserve some attention. It is only a 138 PA sample size, but they’ve demolished left-handed pitching when given the opportunity this season. As a team they’ve posted a .375 wOBA, .238 ISO, and 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs, ranking first in all three categories. Bumgarner has somewhat surprisingly posted a flat 1.00 ERA across his four starts (18.0 IP) in 2022. However, his less-than-stellar 4.69 xFIP and 5.02 SIERA are indicators that he is due for some sizable regression. A big plus for the Cardinals hitters will be the fact that they’ll get three or four innings against a D-Backs bullpen that has an MLB-worst 4.58 xFIP, 4.23 SIERA, and 15.5% kRate. It won’t be the best hitting environment at Busch Stadium today (#10 pitcher-friendly park, 10-15 mph winds blowing in from right), but a few of these Cardinals bats could still provide some pop.

Favorite STL Bats: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado | Sneaky Bat: Albert Pujols

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

It’s a huge slate with Coors Field in play so the vast majority of teams will check in with low stack ownership. Perhaps it’s best not to get too cute today but when looking at the Orioles, you have to see some sort of potential. They’ve been surprisingly good on offense lately, scoring at least five runs in five of their last six games. In that six-game stretch, they rank 9th in the MLB with a .317 wOBA and 11th with a 109 wRC+. Rich Hill is pitching about as well as you’d expect a 42-year-old hurler to be pitching. In three starts, he has come away with a 4.85 ERA, 6.03 xFIP, 5.89 SIERA, 1.62 WHIP, and he’s accounting for only a 4.7% Swinging Strike Rate (12.1% kRate overall). Strikeouts have been a problem for the Orioles against LHPs this season (27.4% kRate, 4th highest) so the fact that they’ll face a low strikeout pitcher is a major plus here. I can’t say the Boston bullpen is particularly scary either. They’re not bad, but not elite either. One final plus to mention is that all these O’s hitters are dirt cheap as well (Cedric Mullins being the lone exception, but he’s not crazy expensive either).

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini, Austin Hays | Sneaky Bat: Cedric Mullins (people targeting O’s bats will favor the cheaper hitters)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS/2B Trea Turner | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

2B/OF Tommy Edman | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF George Springer | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), TEX

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

Oh man… there are so many interesting cheap bats on this slate today. To save some space in this section, just assume that several of the underpriced Reds hitters (on DraftKings) would make the list here. They’re struggling mightily this season but, eh… it’s still Coors Field and Antonio Senzatela has not been great.

2B/3B Sheldon Neuse | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

1B Albert Pujols | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD

OF Luis Gonzalez | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), WAS

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

1B/OF Trey Mancini | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), BOS

SS Dansby Swanson | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), TEX

3B/SS Gio Urshela | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), TB

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF/2B Travis Demeritte | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Well, I was going to fully commit to some Braves bias by going with Ronald Acuna Jr. as my HR call today but, in an exercise of caution, he will not be in the lineup today. So, let’s enter “The Cron Zone” in search of a big fly at Coors Field today. Cron and his seven home runs this season puts him one behind the MLB lead (Anthony Rizzo, 8 HR) and five of those dingers have come at home (40 at-bats) where he’s also batting .350 with a .502 wOBA, .450 ISO, 202 wRC+, and 41.7% HR/FB Rate. Hunter Greene is blowing people away with his average fastball velocity that checks in at 99.3 mph and he’s throwing that four-seam heater 65.1% of the time. But four of CJ Cron’s HRs have been on four-seam fastballs and he’s accounting for a massive .600 ISO against that pitch. Greene is also allowing a high 50% Fly Ball Rate this season and has already given up a couple of HRs to RHBs. Even with strong winds possibly blowing in at Coors Field today, Cron is a good target for a homer. If he doesn’t get one off of Greene, he’ll have one or two chances to go deep on Cincinnati’s bottom 10 ranked bullpen.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 | 2.0 Units

This prop hit for us yesterday and it has currently hit in five of Judge’s last six games. He gets to face another lefty starter today in Kris Bubic and Judge loves to hit against those southpaw pitchers. Five of Judge’s six hits against LHPs this season have gone for extra bases and as long as he gets two cracks at Bubic, he has a great chance at cashing this bet once again.

Dylan Bundy OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | +100 | 2.0 Units

It looks like we’re getting the good version of Dylan Bundy this season after he has strung together a 0.59 ERA and 0.72 WHIP over his three starts (15.1 IP) -- and he has done it against some strong competition (vs. SEA, @BOS, vs. CWS). His 20.7% kRate is fairly average but he has a very solid 30.0% CSW% (called + swinging strike rate) and with his leash getting extended progressively each game (67, 71, 79 pitches) he should have time to record at least five strikeouts today. The Rays have SEVEN batters in their lineup today who have recorded between a 27% kRate to 42% kRate versus RHPs this season. Overall, as a team, their 25.6% kRate vs. RHPs is the fourth-highest in the MLB.

Friday Fun Money...line Parlay:

Mets/Yankees/Cardinals/Dodgers/Giants/Rockies/Athletics to Win | +2265 | 0.5 Units

Whether it’s having the better starter/bullpen, the better offense, or a combination of both, these seven teams should be expected to get a win today. Of course, throwing all seven moneylines into a parlay makes this an unlikely winning bet, but if you’re okay with sacrificing a smaller wager (let's call it "fun money") to get a big potential return, feel free to give it a shot! It is Friday after all… let’s live a little! (As always, gamble responsibly and within your means!)

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!