Top MLB DFS Plays 4/28 | Manifesting a Midweek Takedown

April 28, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Another fairly hefty 10-game MLB main slate is on tap for tonight so let’s strap in and get after it!

In case ya needed a reminder about how unpredictable baseball can be, Vlad Guerrero Jr. reminded us with his three homers last night -- and congrats if you were the owner of the roughly 1% of lineups that rostered him. Of course, it’s not that Vlad Jr. hitting dingers is a surprise, but two of those came off the arm of Max Scherzer. I noticed Scherzer wasn’t particularly popular yesterday; maybe about 15% or so owned on DK. Even though it is a risky investment stacking against an ace like Max, since he wasn’t super chalky, I was a bit surprised to see more people didn’t have some Blue Jays (Vlad Jr. in particular). But anyhow, that’s why I usually try to throw out a “crazy stack that just might work out” in the stack section below. If you’re willing to risk it, there will always be offenses to stack up that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense on paper for that particular day -- but the baseball gods could not care less about statistics-schmatistics (I still do, though).

Okay, let’s do it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

It's a little dicey today. There will be a couple games to really keep an eye on.

NYY @ BAL: 83 degrees at first pitch and temps hover around 80 much of the game. Not a major boost to bats but doesn’t hurt, especially in this hitter’s ballpark! Light 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to center as well.

WAS @ TOR: Temps close to 80 degrees by first pitch and this park in Dunedin, FL has been great for runs and home runs.

DET @ CWS: Hopefully they can avoid the worst of the rain in the area but there’s a chance they’ll have to play through some wet conditions. Can’t totally rule out a delay or even a PPD, so double-check the forecast here closer to lock.

PHI @ STL: Considerable amounts of rain with the potential for thunderstorms before, during, and after the scheduled game window. I’ve checked multiple forecasts here, and they all show plenty of rain. However, DFS meteorologist Kevin Roth seems to think they have a decent shot at getting this game played. I don’t really see it right now, but I’m no meteorologist. I believe, for the sake of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning players from this game but don’t rule anyone out here until we get more info later!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k | vs. DET

Rodon and Tyler Glasnow (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.8k) headline the pitching landscape today as the two premium arms. I ever so slightly prefer Rodon on DK, mostly due to the match-up. But I believe I’d prefer to take the $200 in savings and roll out Glasnow on FD. Either guy could obviously end up as the highest-scoring pitcher on the slate, so we’re mostly splitting hairs here and it’s really only a matter of if you need the extra little bit of salary. Rodon is having an excellent career resurgence this season, highlighted by his near perfect game no-hitter against Cleveland on April 14th. His fastball velocity is up, so he’s throwing the heater more often while also mixing in some additional off-speed pitches. He holds a strong 32.4% kRate through his 19.0 IP this season and opponents are hitting just 0.79 against him. Detroit has also struggled mightily against southpaws this year. Their 42 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 29th in the league and they also have a league-high 34.2% kRate alongside a .182 AVG, .225 wOBA, and .076 ISO. By all means, Rodon *should* keep his hot start to 2021 rolling tonight and the White Sox (-210) are the heaviest favored team on the slate.

Alex Wood (LHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. COL

After dealing with some injuries in recent years and seeing very limited action last season, mostly in a relief role, Wood likely couldn’t have hoped for a better start to this season. Through two starts (12.0 IP), Wood is 2-0 and has allowed just four hits and one earned run (0.75 ERA/2.22 xFIP) while striking out 11 hitters (27.5% kRate). In his second start, he reached a 97 pitch count, so it would seem that the Giants are putting no restrictions on his workload moving forward. He’ll face a Colorado team that has only produced 2.25 runs/game away from Coors Field this season. Though I will note, they have actually been an above average team against LHPs this season (.344 wOBA, 102 wRC+). However, if you take their road splits against LHPs, those numbers drop considerably (.303 wOBA, 88 wRC+). Vegas is only giving the Rockies a slate-low 3.1 implied team total and the 15-9 Giants have somewhat quietly been one of the best teams in the league and often provide their pitchers with solid run support. I believe we can deploy Wood once again in this spot.

Dean Kremer (RHP) | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.5k | vs. NYY

Clearly, this isn’t for the faint of heart but if you want some major risk/reward leverage, here ya go. The name “Yankees” typically commands a huge amount of respect, but if you’ve followed baseball even somewhat closely this year, you know that The Bronx Bombers have been lacking ammunition for the majority of the season. Versus RHPs, they’ve been a bottom 10 offense (.283 wOBA, 84 wRC+) and they offer up a fair amount of strikeouts (25.1% kRate). Kremer only has 29.1 IP in the MLB spread out over 2020 and this season and many of his numbers aren’t the sexiest: 5.52 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP. But he does bring legitimate strikeout upside to the table with a 27.1% kRate. He has traditional splits and fares better against same-handed batters, so he could potentially find some success against this righty-heavy Yankees order. Clearly not a safe play, but he’s worth a dart throw in GPPs if you’re playing more than a few lineups… but I can already see the “IMAGINE playing Kremer” in the LineStar chat now.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: I believe we’ll see the Blue Jays, Padres, and Yankees all carry the most stack exposure on this slate. Really like the Blue Jays and Padres today, so I’ll be willing to target hitters there. The Yankees could certainly produce as well, but I made my case from Kremer above so understandably I’d be willing to go underexposed to those bats.

Houston Astros vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

Dunn carries a slate worst 5.97 xFIP into this match-up tonight against a now fully healthy Astros lineup. Dunn has also struggled mightily with giving up walks: 6.75 BB/9 this season (14.2 IP) and 6.85 BB/9 for his career (67.0 IP). Even through a stretch without their best players available, the Astros have been a top 10 offense against RHPs this season with a team .313 wOBA, .175 ISO, and 109 wRC+. They’ve also been a difficult team to strikeout as their 20.1% kRate vs. RHPs represents the lowest mark in the league. Backing up Dunn will be a Seattle bullpen that has actually fared well (2.29 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .177 AVG) but the underlying stats like their 4.36 xFIP is the 8th worst in the MLB and their league-low .221 BABIP is definitely unsustainable.

Atlanta Braves vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

The Braves are facing Kyle Hendricks for the second time in 10 days after taking him deep for four home runs, seven hits total, and seven runs. We can’t expect another first inning Braves home run derby to take place but some Atlanta hitters not named Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman are finally starting to wake up so nothing is really scaring me from attacking Hendricks here.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Texas Rangers vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), LAA

Even in good spots, no one really stacks up the Rangers. I actually think Alex Cobb could end up posting up a sneaky strong performance today, but for now, I will side with the Rangers who have been a top five offense over the last week with a .340 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Cobb has been putting quite a few runners on base this season with a 1.60 WHIP and is only stranding 59.3% of ‘em. He does have a criminally high .436 BABIP against him, so he is getting super unlucky considering his career BABIP is .292, so he’s due for some positive regression. Still, I don’t mind rolling out a few of these Texas bats, especially if they’re going to be basically about 5% owned.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

A two home run Tuesday night will draw plenty of eyes towards Turner today, but I’m with it. He’s been lethal against lefties, hitting .374 with a .460 wOBA against LHPs over his last 150 games. He also brings strong BvP history against Matz (34 PA, .344 AVG, .425 wOBA, .281 ISO, two HRs, four stolen bases) and will be stepping into the box at a hitter’s park in Dunedin, FL.

C Carson Kelly | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

There are hot hitters then there is Carson Kelly who leads the league with a .539 wOBA, .577 ISO, and 242 wRC+ over the last two weeks. The D-Backs have been destroying lefties this season (155 wRC+, ranks 1st) and Kelly is a central reason behind that success. Weathers is actually looking like a promising young hurler and someone to consider for DFS moving forward, but Kelly has simply been too dominant lately to write off.

3B Gio Urshela | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

My confidence in Dean Kremer (and the O’s bullpen) is definitely not high enough to where I’m avoiding Yankee bats altogether. Urshela is still dirt cheap in comparison to what his upside truly is. Could also draw the clean-up spot in the order again as well.

2B/SS Nico Hoerner | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

The recently recalled Nico Hoerner has been in the lineup for the Cubs last five games and has reached base safely in every start while batting .390 with a .500 OBP. He has also been slotted in at lead-off for the last two games. Ynoa has pitched well this season but is super prone to giving up power and he has allowed a 50.9% HardHit% this season. Hoerner isn’t exactly a power hitter, but even just a double and a couple of runs scored or RBIs would result in strong value.

I had Yadiel Hernandez written up as my final one-off, but he has been moved to the bench today. RIP!

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Eric Hosmer | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

Really like these Padres bats in this match-up and I’m looking for their clean-up man to go yard tonight. Widener has struggled against lefty bats in his brief career and has allowed a 2.50 HR/9 Rate, 43.6% Hard Contact, and 47.3% Fly Ball Rate to that side of the plate. Widener is also giving up a ton of barreled balls and the average batted ball distance of 196.6 feet against him ranks among the bottom 15% of pitchers. Hosmer has faced Widener just four times but already has a HR against him. And finally, perhaps the most important fact: you can’t spell “Hosmer” without “HOMER”. I rest my case.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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