By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Early Slate Rundown

Due to Thursday’s more unorthodox scheduling which places only two games in the later window, we’re switching gears and targeting an early slate in this edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! Both DraftKings and FanDuel main slates will begin at 12:35 ET. The DK slate consists of nine games and the FD slate features the same nine games along with the BOS @ TOR match-up on the back-end at 3:07 ET. The nine mutually shared games will be the primary focus of this newsletter. Also, in an effort to get this pushed out ASAP, this newsletter will be a bit shorter than usual (at least, that's the plan). I am writing this up before I hit the hay late on Wednesday night so be aware that some things, like the weather outlook and starting lineups, may change quite a bit once we close in on the games getting underway! Alright, no time to waste so let’s get into this slate and see if we can make some early bread!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Cooler temperatures in the mid-40s to mid-50s will be a running theme for the outdoor games on this slate. It doesn’t seem like there will be any major postponement worries but a couple of games do have a non-insignificant chance of seeing some wet weather. Reminder: I’m writing this the night before the slate so forecasts can change drastically in the ~12 hours between now and then.

MIA @ WAS (1:05 ET, 8 O/U): 10-15 mph winds blowing left to right.

COL @ PHI (1:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): 15+ mph winds blowing a bit left to right, a bit IN from left. Could be a good spot for pitchers to excel.

BAL @ NYY (1:05 ET, 8 O/U): More stiff winds in New York. Nearly 20 mph blowing OUT to right. Nice boost to the bats despite the cooler 50-degree temps.

DET @ MIN (1:10 ET, 7 O/U): Lower-end rain chances in the later innings which increase after this game *should* be over. Looks like it should be fine for now but a later inning delay can’t be ruled out. 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from dead center makes this another nice environment for pitchers.

KC @ CWS (2:10 ET, 7 O/U): Around a 20% chance for rain during the first half of this game so there is some slight risk of a late start or in-game delay. Doesn’t seem overly likely. 10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.7k | @ TEX

Verlander checks in as the premium arm on the board today and we should be fine forking over the $10k+ to get him into lineups. Since last pitching a full season in 2019, the 39-year-old ace may still be shaking off a bit of rust as he’s only forcing a 9.5% SwStr% but that still hasn’t stopped him from posting an excellent 29% kRate. He hasn’t lost any significant velocity on his fastball so the decreased SwStr% may just be due to some command issues. He has also gone head-on with some very tough competition this season. The three offenses he has pitched against (@ LAA, @ SEA, vs. TOR) all rank inside the top 10 in wRC+ against RHPs. Texas, however, does not. The Rangers have been good when facing lefties (124 wRC+, ranks 8th) but awful when going up against RHPs (72 wRC+, ranks 28th). They’re generating next to no power with a .081 ISO vs. RHPs (ranks dead last). They have only struck out 19.2% of the time against righties but that shouldn’t be enough to stop you from rostering Verlander on this slate. In 115 PA versus these Rangers hitters, Verlander has produced a huge 37.4% kRate.

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ MIN

Skubal’s 2.47 xFIP leads all starting pitchers on this slate. He’s thrown 11.2 scoreless innings in his last two starts while combining for 13 Ks and throwing at least 90 pitches in both of those two starts. He’s also walked only one batter this year (1.6% BB%). Skubal will be taking the hill in a great pitching environment (mid-40s w/ 10-15 mph winds blowing in) in Minnesota. Against LHPs, the Twins are middle-of-the-pack with a 101 wRC+ (16th) and .303 wOBA (16th) while striking out a healthy 24.5% of the time. In previous seasons, Skubal had issues allowing a high hard contact rate along with a high fly ball rate which, predictably, led to a lot of home runs (2.01 HR/9 Rate for his career). To start this season, Skubal has decreased his flyball rate drastically and isn’t getting hit hard as often. This has resulted in zero HRs allowed in his three starts and 15.2 IP. The Tigers will be a slight +122 underdog today but with Skubal’s solid strikeout upside (25% kRate) he sets up as a worthy mid-range target today. Also, in 73 PA against the Twins roster, Skubal has a lofty 27.4% kRate.

Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | @ WAS

We’re mainly looking here to Rogers as an affordable SP2 option -- the $6,100 price tag is simply too cheap. He’s coming off of his best start of the season in Atlanta where he threw 95 pitches across five innings, allowed zero earned runs, four hits, two walks, and struck out four. Rogers’ 18.2% kRate is down significantly compared to his 28% career kRate, yet he is still accounting for a strong 12.3% SwStr% which is not far off from his 13.7% career SwStr%. Currently, he’s just not getting the called strikes but we will likely see some positive strikeout regression out of him soon. Until further notice, it only makes sense to attack this Nationals lineup that just hasn’t been productive at all. Against LHPs, they have just a .261 wOBA (27th) and a paltry 66 wRC+ (27th). They have struck out at a league-low 16.5% kRate but that seems unsustainably low. Regardless, Rogers won’t have to be incredibly dependent on strikeouts to return value on his low DraftKings salary -- though he does have a 26.3% kRate versus this Nationals roster across 57 PA. The Marlins are solid -150 road favorites while the Nationals possess a 3.6 implied run total.

Also consider:

FanDuel Main Slate Only: Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.2k (afternoon slate salary), FD: $10.6k | vs. BOS

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

New York Yankees vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

The Yankees are finally on a heater as they ride a five-game win streak where they have averaged 7.2 runs/gm. Across the last week, they lead the MLB with a 163 wRC+. Southpaw Bruce Zimmermann has been one of the more surprisingly good pitchers this season, posting a 1.20 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 27.1% kRate across his three starts (15.0 IP). One of those starts was against this Yankees team whom he held scoreless across five innings and allowing just four hits and two walks. On top of his sub-3.00 xFIP, Zimmermann’s 3.23 SIERA and .297 BABIP shows that he’s not just getting lucky. BUT it is still worth testing the waters here and seeing if the Yankees bats can stay hot, especially when they’ll have those near-20 mph winds blowing out to right. They’ve flopped numerous times throughout this season so the volatility is high, but the same can be said about every offense in baseball right now.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu | Sneaky Bat: Josh Donaldson

Miami Marlins vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

If it’s another off day for Corbin (11.20 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, 2.56 WHIP), then look for some Marlins bats to carry some significant upside. Corbin can still have his moments, but he’s a shell of the pitcher he was when he was putting up borderline ace-level numbers towards the end of his tenure with the D-Backs in 2018. He just hasn’t been able to keep the bases clear this season and in two of his four starts, he hasn’t even been able to make it past the third inning. Behind Corbin will be a bottom 10 Nationals bullpen that could be a bit overtaxed after pitching 30.2 innings over the last week (3rd most).

Favorite MIA Bats: Jesus Aguilar, Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper | Sneaky Bat: Miguel Rojas

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Bullpen Game

Perhaps the only team that has been about as hot as the Yankees recently is the Seattle Mariners. Over the last week, they have put up a huge 152 wRC+ which ranks just behind the Yankees (163 wRC+) in that stretch. The Rays will be relying on their bullpen for the entirety of this game and it currently looks as if they’ll utilize Jeffrey Springs as the opener with Jalen Beeks a candidate to serve as a bulk reliever. The Rays bullpen has posted a low 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .186 opp AVG. However, they’re also benefiting from a .228 BABIP (3rd lowest) so some regression can likely be expected soon. Their 3.69 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA place them closer to the middle of the pack in the bullpen rankings rather than at the top. The general public will probably avoid playing Mariners bats against this highly thought of Rays bullpen and the DFS salaries on some of these hitters, particularly on DraftKings, are really getting up there (deservedly so). As a result, ownership may not be too high here.

Favorite SEA Bats: Ty France, JP Crawford, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: Abraham Toro

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

SS JP Crawford | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. TB Rays Bullpen

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B/OF Jurickson Profar | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

2B/3B/OF Brandon Drury | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

2B/SS Kyle Farmer | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Tommy Pham | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Chas McCormick | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bruce Zimmermann (LHP), BAL

I mentioned yesterday that I’ll be rolling with a stud slugger until my home run call drought is over. Mike Trout was my pick for yesterday’s slate and while he had another great multi-hit game, he came about a foot short of hitting a home run (I’m blaming the dead ball on that one). Judge will be the stud pick today. In 15 at-bats, he already has a pair of home runs against LHPs this season, and crushing lefties is nothing new to him (.422 wOBA, .327 ISO, 175 wRC+ vs. LHPs in last 150 games). Bruce Zimmermann may be surprising us all with how well he’s pitching this season but I’m still not sold on him just yet. Judge has eight plate appearances against Zimmermann in his career and he’s homered off of him in two of those. With those near-20 mph winds blowing out at Yankee Stadium today, I’ll bank on Judge getting his third career dinger off of Zimmermann.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Bases | +105 | 2.0 Units

There aren’t many props and odds posted at the time I’m writing this so I’ll be riding a solo bet today. Judge has earned over 1.5 bases in four of his last five games. As mentioned above, he’ll go up against a lefty starter today in Bruce Zimmermann whom he already has a pair of HRs against in only eight plate appearances. Judge’s four hits against LHPs this season have all gone for extra bases (two 2B, two HR) and he’s batting just under .300 against lefties across his last 150 games along with a .422 wOBA. I’ll roll with the plus money odds on Judge getting multiple bases today.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!