Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/27/19: Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

I’m going to get right to it as this is a good size slate today and the games start early as they always do on Sunday. I want to be sure I’m getting this out to you early enough to read through before lock. Today brings us 10 games. We have strong pitching options which is going to make bats and stacks a little more difficult to find. There is only one game with a total over nine today, which is rare. Here are today’s match ups and Vegas lines:

Looking at the weather, the game in New York is the only PPD risk at the moment. It looks like it will start dry and the rain will come in during the course of the game. Definitely something worth monitoring. Other than that, I see several colder games in the 50s and even into the 40s in Chicago. Let’s take a closer look at some players to consider.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (DK: $10K, FD: $9.2K) | LHP | BOS vs. TBR

Is he back? It’s tough to say for sure but his last start certainly felt more like the Chris Sale we know. Only five innings, but the double-digit strikeouts was encouraging. He still gave up a home run, unbelievably his sixth of the season already and it was also against a weak Detroit lineup which gives you at least some pause about whether or not he’s starting to figure things out. The good news is, the Rays, despite being in first place, are struggling pretty badly against left-handed pitching this season. They have a below average .320 wOBA and .132 ISO as well as an incredible 30.2% strikeout rate. That's the second worst strikeout rate in baseball behind our good friends the Pirates, who we’ve attacked successfully with left-handed pitching each of the last two nights. It’s odd seeing Chris Sale with an 0-4 record and a 7.43 ERA. The 4.16 SIERA is at least more promising and the strikeout trend (3, 6, and 10 in his last three starts) is moving in the right direction. Will he return to his 2018 glory that included a 2.27 SIERA, 0.80 WHIP, 38.3% strikeouts and just a 23.4% hard contact rate? Time will tell. But if we know anything about baseball, it’s that the data typically regresses closer to career averages over the course of the season, which means we should see typical Chris Sale in the not so distant future (provided he stays healthy). Now let’s talk about pricing. On DraftKings, he’s up in the top tier again but still cheap by Chris Sale standards. On FanDuel, he’s priced BELOW Kevin Gausman. He’s just $1.2K more than Reynaldo Lopez. Not sure what happened there but it’s going to be difficult to fade him at that price regardless of the ownership. Despite the struggles, I’m considering him the top pitcher on the board today.

Jack Flaherty (DK: $10.3K, FD: $8.5K) | RHP | STL vs. CIN

Go home FanDuel, you’re drunk! No seriously, what was happening at the offices of FanDuel last night? The Chris Sale price is bad but the price on Flaherty might actually be worse. He’s $200 less than Joey Lucchesi, just $200 more than Sonny Gray, and just $500 more than Reynaldo Lopez. I don’t understand it but again, it’s going to make him difficult to fade. On DraftKings, he’s still absolutely in play, even as the most expensive pitcher on the board. It’s just obviously a more difficult decision over there and there’s a stronger case to be made for fading. The Reds are just 4-9 on the road this season with a .254 wOBA, .177 ISO, and 25.5% strikeout rate. Against right-handed pitching they have a .279 wOBA, .173 ISO and 25% strikeout rate. Basically, they are the definition of boom or bust. They don’t hit for average, they strikeout a ton, they don’t walk much, but they have a lot of power upside. Flaherty this season is 2-1 in five starts with a 5.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and massive 30.5% strikeout rate. That 5.25 ERA, however, is drastically inflated due to the match ups he's had. So far, Flaherty has faced the Brewers three times already, two of them in hitter friendly Milwaukee, as well as the Dodgers, another powerful offense, and then a much improved Padres squad. He has a .350 BABIP against him which should drop and his 3.50 SIERA is a much more accurate reflection of how he has pitched. With the massive strikeout rate, the SIERA nearly two runs below the ERA, and the above average BABIP all suggesting positive regression, plus a match up today against a strikeout heavy Reds team, I think you could make the argument that Flaherty is appropriately priced on DraftKings as the most expensive pitcher. I like him as a pivot option in tournaments today on DraftKings as the field will likely save $300 and just play Sale this afternoon.

Kyle Gibson (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.6K) | RHP | MIN vs. BAL

Even on the large slate, the value tier is pretty unappealing today. This is about as unexciting as it gets but there are a few positives to consider. First, he’s facing a weak Orioles team that has shown the ability to put up runs occasionally but overall has just a .307 wOBA, .163 ISO, and 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Gibson should be in line for the win as one of the biggest favorites on the board at -190 but this is largely due to his teammates teeing off on Dylan Bundy (more on that in a moment). Plus, one of the best bats in the Baltimore lineup, Trey Mancini, is likely to miss today’s game after being hit by a pitch on the hand yesterday. So we are looking at a more watered down than usual Orioles lineup this afternoon. Gibson is basically the definition of an average pitcher. In 2018, he had a 4.25 SIERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 21.7% strikeouts. He did a good job forcing ground balls at a 49.8% rate which helped level out his rough 39.1% hard contact rate. This season we are seeing a lot of the same through his first four starts. The SIERA is slightly higher at 4.53 and the strikeouts are down just a bit to 19.6%. He’s still giving up hard contact at 43.9% but he’s still keeping it on the ground 53.8% of the time. He’s not going to miss a lot of bats in this one but he should eat up some innings, limit the run damage, and pick up the win which gives him a solid floor. If we happen to get a spike in strikeouts all the better.   

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Atlanta Braves vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP – Colorado Rockies)

The Braves against a lefty. This is a theme you’ll notice in my articles throughout the season. Atlanta was arguably the best team in baseball against left-handed pitching last season and they’ve picked up right where they left off this year. They have a .394 wOBA, .233 ISO, and 147 wRC+ while striking out just 18.3% of the time against lefties in 2019. Tyler Anderson, meanwhile, has been awful. That’s actually putting it nicely. He’s 0-2 in three starts with a 12.00 ERA. You read that correctly. He’s allowed 16 earned runs and 22 hits in just 12 innings pitched. His SIERA is significantly lower than his ERA, at 5.50, but even with positive regression it won’t be good enough to keep us from attacking him. Acuna (.569 wOBA, .550 ISO), Albies (.374 wOBA), Donaldson, Swanson (.519 wOBA, .471 ISO), Inciarte (.404 wOBA), Camargo (.409 wOBA, .375 ISO and usually dirt cheap), and Flowers are firmly in play as either one offs or part of stacks. I typically avoid lefty vs lefty match ups but as part of a stack they are fine, especially when it’s Freddie Freeman and his .478 wOBA and .333 ISO against lefties this season. Nick Markakis is fine in lefty vs lefty match ups as well with his .413 wOBA. I love the Braves today.

Minnesota Twins vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP – Baltimore Orioles)

There’s been so much to talk about so far on this slate that I haven’t even got to the best part yet. It’s a freaking Dylan Bundy Day! Bundy will take his seven home runs allowed in just five starts (after allowing the most home runs in baseball last season) into Minnesota to take on a Twins team that is sixth in baseball with 42 home runs so far. Bundy is allowing 51.5% fly balls, a 20% HR/FB rate, and 30% hard contact. In 2018, he allowed 46% fly balls and a 34.5% hard contact rate. The Twins are ranked 3rd in wOBA, 1st in ISO, and 4th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season while striking out just 18.2% of the time, which ranks 28th. Rosario (.370 wOBA, .354 ISO), Polanco (.476 wOBA, .371 ISO), Schoop (.336 wOBA, .211 ISO), Cron (.325 wOBA, .224 ISO), Kepler (.375 wOBA, .246 ISO), Cruz (.449 wOBA, .328 ISO), do I need to keep going here? All these guys are smoking right-handed pitching right now.  

Washington Nationals vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP – San Diego Padres)

I’ll like this one a lot more if Anthony Rendon gets into the lineup today. He was scratched from yesterday’s lineup after experiencing soreness from being hit by a pitch on the elbow over a week ago. It’s to be expected after missing several games and then returning to the lineup on Friday that he would feel sore again the next day. Hopefully he gets back in there today. If he doesn’t, I still like Washington regardless. There are some excellent value bats in this lineup with some players who are career lefty mashers and all priced under $4K on DraftKings. Yan Gomes has a .610 wOBA+ISO over his last 150 games and a ridiculous .800 wOBA+ISO over his last 20 games against left-handed pitching. Brian Dozier hasn’t been the same guy in recent seasons but his last 20 games against left-handed pitching have a promising .653 wOBA+ISO and his career numbers against lefties are outstanding.  Ryan Zimmerman is another guy with strong career numbers against lefties and comes into today with a .731 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching in his last 150 games. Those are just the value bats. Let’s not forget about Soto, Eaton, and Robles as well. If Rendon is in here today, this becomes one of my favorite stacks on the board. If he’s out, I’m still going to have exposure here for the value.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Ryan O'Hearn (DK: $3.6K, FD: $2.5K) | 1B | KC vs. LAA

If you’ve played DFS for any length of time then you know Matt Harvey struggles big time with left-handed hitters. In 2018, he had a 4.53 xFIP, 42.9% fly balls, 43.2% hard contact, and allowed a .341 wOBA to them. This sets up nicely for O’Hearn as a potential value bat in a game that could go under the radar a bit today despite having one of the higher totals on the board. He has a .755 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over his last 150 games. After a mini slump and a couple of nights off, he’s heating back up with double digit fantasy points in two of his last four. During the last two weeks he has a 36.8% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity of 93.9 mph.

Rhys Hoskins (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.2K) | 1B | PHI vs. MIA

I’m a Pablo Lopez fan. He’s proving himself to be a player with the potential to be a long term starter in Miami. What I’m not a fan of is using pitchers in Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have struggled on the road, going just 5-7 but have been dominant at home going 10-5 (and putting up another 12 runs yesterday). This is a great spot for Hoskins in particular who has a .692 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 games and more recently a .793 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games. During the past two weeks, Hoskins has just 8.3% soft hits and an average distance of 247.2 feet.

Eric Sogard (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.4K) | 2B | TOR vs. OAK

The man is raking right now. It’s hard to ignore. With all the excitement of Vlad Guerrero Jr. getting called up (and rightfully so) Sogard has flown completely under the radar since he was recalled to the big leagues. Since joining the Blue Jays, he’s started nine games and scored at least three fantasy points in every one of them. Six of those nine games have been 13 fantasy points or more. This is obviously all based on a small sample but it’s really difficult to ignore how good he’s been or how much he’s helping to transform this Toronto lineup that was a complete joke at the start of the season. As an added bonus, the Oakland bullpen is 26th against left-handed hitters with 2.5 FP/PA allowed.

Best of luck today!

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