By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Be sure to subscribe to the LineStar YouTube channel! New video podcast episodes drop Monday-Friday featuring hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick (10-15 min.), informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown

A bustling MLB Wednesday rounds the corner with all 30 teams stepping onto the diamond at some point today. This evening’s main slate is setting up to be what I like to refer to as a ‘Goldilocks slate.’ With eight games on the main slate docket, it’s not too big, not too small, but just right. The overall pitching options perhaps aren’t phenomenal but they’re solid enough and there looks to be several offenses in advantageous spots as well. Everyone has their own preferences but these mid-sized slates that happen to be well-balanced between pitching and hitting are the ones I enjoy the most. Time to dig in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Fortunately, there are no postponement threats today but there are several games on this slate where winds and game-time temperatures will be worth making note of.

BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 15 mph. Temps are in the upper-40s so it’ll be chilly and the air will be dense. The winds should still benefit the hitters to an extent.

MIA @ WAS (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Chilly here as well with temps around 50 degrees all game. 10-15 mph winds blowing mostly left to right -- perhaps IN from left field at times. Pretty decent pitching conditions.

CHC @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Nothing remarkable here but it’s maybe worth mentioning that the temps in the low-70s for much of this game will be the warmest conditions among all outdoor games today. Light winds blowing OUT to center as well.

DET @ MIN (7:40 ET, 7 O/U): Cold temps in the upper-40s with winds blowing IN from center around 10 mph. Excellent conditions for pitchers and it’s no surprise to see that this game features the lowest implied run total on the slate.

OAK @ SF (9:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): The 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to center might draw some attention. But here is the obligatory “Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts” reminder. Of course, those winds won’t hurt hitters but the game time temps will be about 50 degrees so the wind and temperature factors mostly cancel each other out.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. DET

Ryan will be making just his ninth career MLB start today but he has already flashed some of the immense upside that he showed off across his three years in the minor leagues where he averaged nearly a 40% kRate! He hasn’t quite hit the same sort of strikeout numbers in the majors after posting a 28.7% kRate across his 42.2 IP. But, hey, that’s still a great kRate and it’s likely only going to increase as he gets more acclimated to pitching against major league caliber hitters. One possible downside: Ryan hasn’t thrown more than 89 pitches in any of his previous MLB starts so, until we see him receive a fully extended leash, the fantasy scoring potential will be capped slightly. Even with a pitch count in the 80s, he has averaged 26.1 DKFP and 44.5 FDFP over his last two starts (82 and 85 pitches). Ryan has some flyball tendencies and his 62.2% FB% from his three starts this season is easily the highest FB% among today’s starters. In some pitching environments, that would be a red flag. But, as noted in the weather section above, it will be cold in Minnesota (upper-40s) and winds are expected to be blowing in from dead center at 10 mph. Combine the weather factors with the new dead baseballs being used and that should make it very difficult to hit a home run over the wall at Target Field today. The Tigers are hitting just .216 against RHPs this season alongside a .285 wOBA, a low .108 ISO, and they’re striking out fairly often with a 23.3% kRate. The Twins are heavy -190 favorites today and the Tigers are being pinned with a slate-low 3.0 implied run total. After the embarrassing walk-off ending to the game between these two teams last night, some of these Detroit players may not even show up to the ballpark tonight.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k | vs. CLE

Shohei the pitcher continues to be a better bargain on DraftKings (fourth-most expensive pitcher) as opposed to FanDuel (most expensive pitcher). But the man blows all of today’s other starting pitchers out of the water when it comes to the raw upside so I doubt you’re fading him on FanDuel based on price. Ohtani’s freakish 44.1% kRate is not only the highest kRate on the slate (by far) but it’s the second-highest in all of baseball among pitchers with at least 10.0 IP (Nestor Cortes, first with a 44.6% kRate). Ohtani’s 4.40 ERA should pretty much be discarded as well. Six of the seven earned runs he has given up came in one start against Texas where he simply got extremely unlucky. His slate-leading 1.28 xFIP and 1.48 SIERA are much more representative of where Ohtani’s ERA *should* be and it’s a good example of why ERA is a fairly flawed pitching metric. Anyhow, let’s dig into the match-up. The Guardians may be the most feast or famine offense in the MLB. They’ve played 16 games this season. In six games, they’ve scored 6+ runs. In nine games, they’ve scored two runs or less. Cleveland is currently riding a five-game losing streak where they’ve averaged 1.6 runs/gm. They’ve also posted a 27.5% kRate and 74 wRC+ vs. RHPs in that span. Ohtani has been considerably better when pitching at home throughout his career (2.18 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, 31.3% kRate, 1.08 WHIP, .190 opp AVG) and the Angels are heavily favored this evening with -200 moneyline odds.

Jakob Junis (RHP), SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. OAK

With the current state of baseball, pitchers essentially have all the advantages on their side so it makes much more sense to pay up for the higher pedigree starters on any given slate. With that in mind, I’d exercise caution when spending down and, as is often the case, the cheap pitcher that I always try to throw out is better suited as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings for lineups where you want to open up more salary for bigger bats.

So we arrive here at Jakob Junis. Technically, LHP Sam Long will be the official starter for the Giants today but he will be assigned as the “opener” and will only pitch one or two innings. Junis is the expected “long reliever” and he operated in an identical role when he followed up Long in his first appearance of the season, which came last Friday against the Nationals. Junis came in and pitched five scoreless innings, allowing only three hits, no walks, and he struck out four on 61 pitches -- it was a strong performance that netted him 21.5 DKFP (and 33 FDFP). He also picked up the win in that game and he’ll have another chance at earning a bit of a “cheap win” tonight as well since he doesn’t necessarily have to pitch the required five innings that starters do in order to qualify for the win. Across his career, which was entirely played with the Royals before signing a one-year deal with the Giants in the off-season, Junis has been a fairly average pitcher (4.77 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 4.32 SIERA, 1.35 WHIP, 21.0% kRate). He’s also struggled with giving up the long ball and has a 1.59 HR/9 Rate across his 520.1 IP in the MLB. But the Giants organization does a tremendous job at bringing out a pitcher’s strengths so perhaps Junis will continue to flourish in this long opener role while injured starters Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani work their way back to full strength. Junis will have a great match-up against an Oakland A’s team that has only a .212 AVG and 91 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season along with a high 25.0% kRate. Oakland has a low 3.3 implied run total tonight and San Francisco takes their home field as heavy -170 favorites. If Junis can eat up another five or perhaps even six innings (if he sees a decent bump in his pitch count), it wouldn’t be a major stretch to expect around 20 DKFP from him again, especially if he can pick up that win bonus. At $6,000 on DK, that would represent some excellent value.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Toronto Blue Jays (RHBs) vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

The Blue Jays stack was a bit of a flop yesterday aside from a 2-run HR from George Springer that tied the game up in the bottom of the 9th. Santiago Espinal also had a nice 3-for-3 day which included a double, two RBI, a walk, and a run. But they’ll carry some stack consideration once again today as they take on Michael Wacha. Through three starts and 14.1 IP this season, Wacha has been a reliable starter who has posted a 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. However, he has been very fortunate thanks to a .114 BABIP (compared to a .301 BABIP for his career), and his 4.14 xFIP/4.41 SIERA indicates that he is due for some sizable regression. Wacha typically struggles a bit on the road and he has profiled as a poor reverse splits pitcher throughout his career. Looking at last season, he allowed a .287 AVG, .361 wOBA, and .210 ISO to RHBs -- compare that to a .243 AVG, .316 wOBA, and .185 ISO to LHBs. Fortunately, Toronto is loaded with right-handed power. The good-but-not-great Red Sox bullpen may also be a bit taxed after seven different relievers combined for 82 pitches in yesterday’s extra-inning game. The 28.2 IP from the Red Sox bullpen is also the sixth-highest reliever workload over the last week. And finally, the Blue Jays have been strong at home in the Rogers Centre where they have averaged 5.63 runs/gm this season while posting a 140 wRC+ vs. RHPs (ranks 5th) to go with an MLB-best .220 ISO.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette | Sneaky Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (assuming the hamstring injury is not a huge deal)

Atlanta Braves vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

The Braves stack has fallen flat many times this season as well but can some plain old bad baseball luck be to blame (or am I just a Braves fan trying to cope)? Perhaps somewhat. Atlanta has a .275 BABIP on the season, putting them at 20th in the MLB. However, they lead the league with a 36.6% HardContact%, they’re sixth with a 42.1% HardHit%, third with a 10.6% Barrel%, and second with 46 barreled balls hit. Even with the bad BABIP luck, they’ve managed to play above league average with a 105 wRC+ and they have five hitters who have at least a 132 wRC+: Matt Olson (181 wRC+), Austin Riley (166 wRC+), Ozzie Albies (154 wRC+), Marcell Ozuna (136 wRC+), and Travis d’Arnaud (132 wRC+). Mark Leiter Jr. is pitching in the MLB for the first time since 2018 and in two appearances (7.1 IP), he has not exactly impressed -- 11.05 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 1.91 WHIP, .419 opp wOBA. The Braves, and specifically those five hitters previously listed, should be productive against Leiter while he is on the mound. The downside here is that the Cubs bullpen has been one of the best relief units in the MLB -- their 2.94 xFIP ranks them second just behind the Dodgers bullpen (2.93 xFIP). They’re also well-rested with only 20.2 IP over the last week. But this is still a nice spot for Atlanta at home where Truist Park will provide one of the better hitting environments on the slate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna | Sneaky Bat: Travis Demeritte

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

Charlie Morton has plenty of time to right the ship but until he shows some more consistency, he may be worth stacking against. In his last two starts, he surrendered 15 hits (3 HR), issued six walks, and allowed nine runs. Given, both of those games came on the road against solid competitions (Dodgers & Padres) but up to this point, his underlying stats, such as his 4.84 xFIP, 4.40 SIERA, and .400 xwOBA, are cause for concern. Morton is also only producing a 9.0% Swinging Strike Rate and his Called Strike Rate is down a bit as well. Lefty hitters are doing some serious damage against him (.357 AVG, .513 wOBA, .464 ISO, 2.37 WHIP) so I’d prioritize that side of the plate -- though, the Cubs are not loaded with many strong LHBs. Also, as mentioned with the Braves stack above, this should be one of the better hitting environments on the slate. This may be a game where you want to stack both sides… but we’ll have to see what the dead baseballs have to say about that.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Jonathan Villar, Seiya Suzuki | Sneaky Bat: Jason Heyward

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Glen Otto (RHP), TEX

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

2B/3B Luis Arraez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), DET

3B/SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

3B/OF Brian Anderson | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

SS/2B Santiago Espinal | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

OF/1B Trey Mancini | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

OF/2B Travis Demeritte | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

Until my home run call drought is over, I’m exclusively picking studs. The Fish Man is the pick today. I could simply say “Mike Trout is a strong pick to hit a home run today” and leave it at that, but I enjoy getting paid to produce DFS content for LineStar and wouldn’t want to put that in jeopardy, heh. We all know Mike Trout is arguably the best hitter in baseball and he has three home runs across his last four games. So let’s look at the match-up. Zach Plesac is a quality middle-of-the-rotation starter and has posted a 3.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across his 57 MLB starts (331.1 IP). However, he has given up his fair share of home runs, specifically to the right side of the plate where he has produced a 1.58 HR/9 Rate and 15.2% HR/FB Rate. He has also given up 19 HRs to RHBs when pitching on the road resulting in a 1.83 HR/9 Rate and 16.7% HR/FB Rate. Behind Plesac will be a Guardians bullpen that has given up nine HRs this season (T-4th most) to go with a 13.0% HR/FB Rate (6th highest). Trout has hit six barreled baseballs against RHPs in the last 14 days (95th percentile) and his average distance of batted balls is 252.2 feet, which is the second-longest average distance among all hitters on the slate. It’s time to hit another big fly, Mike!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Shohei Ohtani OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | +110 | 2.0 Units

As long as this Guardians cold streak continues, Ohtani should sail past this o6.5 Ks prop bet with ease. Cleveland has posted a 27.5% kRate vs. RHPs during their current five-game losing streak and few pitchers on the planet have the sort of strikeout potential of Ohtani. Over his first three starts, Ohtani has amassed a blistering 44.1% kRate, 16.5% SwStr%, and a 37.1% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). He’ll also be on the mound at home tonight where all of his key pitching metrics (which includes the strikeout numbers) are noticeably better as opposed to when he pitches on the road.

Marlins -1.5 (+120) & Blue Jays Moneyline (-135) Parlay | +283 | 1.5 Units

I’m still salty about the Dodgers blowing the three-leg parlay I had posted yesterday but time to move past it.

The Marlins have their ace on the mound today with Pablo Lopez taking on a sputtering Nationals offense. Lopez is coming off of a masterful performance in his last start against the Cardinals (7.0 IP, 100 PC, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 9 K) and is pitching extremely well, in general, this season. Aside from Juan Soto, the Nationals just don’t have many consistent nor dangerous bats in their lineup and their pitching staff ranks bottom five in the league. Washington has lost six straight games by a combined score of 13-to-44 (5.2 run average margin of loss). The Marlins have also been a top 10 offense over the last week (114 wRC+, ranks 8th) so they look like a solid bet to win this game by multiple runs. I'm liking the runline to hit here.

The Blue Jays needed a 9th inning equalizer in the way of a George Springer 2-run homer to tie their game up with Boston and win it in extra innings, so I am a bit hesitant to go back here, especially with Ross Stripling on the mound for Toronto but his counterpart, Michael Wacha, is not some premiere starter either despite the 1.88 ERA he has posted this season. As I talked about earlier in the stack section, Wacha is very due for some regression. The Red Sox bats are too talented to struggle forever but right now they’re just not an effective offense. Their 59 wRC+ over the last week ranks 28th in the MLB. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are terrific at home (139 wRC+, ranks 3rd) where they’re now 6-2 on the season. The Blue Jays have also gone 12-2 in their last 14 games as the favorite, so I’ll look for them to get another ‘W’ on the board today… ideally in a less-dramatic fashion than yesterday.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!