Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/27/19: Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

This is not the greatest slate. If you’re a degenerate like me and don’t mind taking some risks, there’s definitely opportunity on the board. But I’m likely scaling back my bankroll in play for this one. If risk isn’t your thing, tonight could be a good night to take a breather, regroup, maybe get an early start on tomorrow’s slate. We have seven games that lack viable pitching options but should have some good spots to find bats. Of the fourteen teams in action tonight, half of them have an implied total of 4.5 runs or higher. On paper, there are several recognizable pitchers but many of them are going to be tough to trust. Yu Darvish, Mike Foltynewicz, and Jon Gray all represent opportunity for upside but with plenty of risk and very little floor. Darvish has been awful and doesn’t look anything like his old self. Mike Foltynewicz is coming off of the IL to make his season debut which is generally a situation I try to avoid (though I don’t hate him tonight). Jon Gray has a difficult match up against the Braves. Here are tonight’s match ups and Vegas lines:

There is one trouble spot weather-wise that could easily turn this into a six game slate. Things are looking ugly in the game between Detroit and Chicago with incredibly cold weather, wind, and rain. It’s way too early to tell how this will play out but if you’re planning any exposure to that game be sure to have a plan B.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Clayton Kershaw (DK: $10.2K, FD: $10.9K) | LHP | LAD @ PIT

We talked in this article yesterday about how bad the Pirates have been against left-handed pitching and then Ryu went out and proved it to us last night with seven innings and ten strikeouts. I have yet to roster Kershaw this season with all the questions surrounding his health and still being priced in the top tier on most slates. This feels like as good a night as any to finally put some trust in him. He’s been solid to start the season, with a 3.56 SIERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 61.3% ground ball rate through his first two starts. He’s striking out exactly one batter per inning which is encouraging to see given the drop in velocity he’s experiencing as he gets older. A potential red flag is the .172 BABIP which is telling us he’s been a bit lucky with the contact opposing hitters have made against him. But, given the match up against Pittsburgh who has a miserable .258 wOBA and .096 ISO, I’m not overly concerned. Even better is the lift Kershaw is likely to see in strikeouts against a Pittsburgh team striking out a pathetic 30% of the time against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers are comfortable -187 favorites and the Pirates have the lowest implied total of the night at just three runs. Kershaw is far and away the top arm on the board.

Brandon Woodruff (DK: $7.7K, FD: $7.3K) | RHP | MIL @ NYM

A key piece of the Brewers deep playoff run last season, Woodruff was impressive in 2018 albeit in a small sample. He pitched 42.1 innings for Milwaukee down the stretch and had a 3.26 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 26.8% strikeouts. He forced 52.7% ground balls while allowing just a .281 wOBA against left-handed batters and a .286 wOBA against right-handed batters. His success earned him an opportunity to be a regular starter this season and so far he has not disappointed. He’s 2-1 in five starts with a 5.81 ERA and 27.1% strikeouts. Yes, the ERA is bad, but there’s a few things to consider. First, he’s faced some seriously difficult competition including the Cardinals (1st against right-handed pitching), Dodgers (4th against right-handed pitching), Cubs (5th against right-handed pitching) and the Angels (11th against right-handed pitching). Second, four of his five starts have been at home in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. When we factor all that in, the SIERA is actually a much more respectable 3.80 to go along with the high strikeout upside he’s been able to display. Tonight, at least on paper, he gets his best match up so far against a Mets team that has a below average .318 wOBA and .156 ISO against right-handed pitching. The game is also at Citi Field which is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. Everything lines up for Woodruff to finally see some luck turn his way tonight. The only real downside here is his teammates will be dealing with Noah Syndergaard, which could obviously make it a little more difficult to pick up the win. The Brewers are currently +126 but the Mets have a low implied total of only 4.1 runs.

Reynaldo Lopez (DK: $6.2K, FD: $8K) | RHP | CWS vs. DET

Alright, so this is one of those “hear me out” situations. First, this is DK only. His price on FanDuel is a joke. I am not in any way suggesting that Lopez is a good pitcher but we need to recognize the thin pitching options and look for potential options somewhere. This is a slate where I’m likely locking in Kershaw for the points regardless of ownership, then prioritizing my bats, and where ever I end up for my SP2 is fine. IF this game plays (that’s a big if) it’s actually a good opportunity to take Lopez in very cold pitcher’s weather, as it should minimize some of the risk (though the wind could be an issue that we’ll need to watch). The Tigers are a good team to attack with pitching given their below average numbers, especially against right-handed pitching. They have a .289 wOBA, .136 ISO, and a 78 wRC+ in addition to striking out 25.3% of the time. Lopez has a 96 mph fastball and can occasionally bring some strikeout upside but he also comes with 47.1% fly balls and 33.7% hard contact allowed and can be prone to the long ball. You have to really pick and choose your spots with him and hope the fastball is working when you use him. His last two starts were encouraging, going six innings and allowing just one earned run while striking out five and then coming back in his next start and going six innings, two earned runs and striking out eight. Unfortunately, that last start was against this same Detroit team so he’ll be at a disadvantage with the batters getting a chance to see him recently. This is a risky, dirt cheap, punt option with strikeout potential against a bad team. The White Sox are -133 favorites and the Tigers have one of the lower implied totals of the night at 4.2 runs.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Seattle Mariners vs Mike Minor (LHP – Texas Rangers)

Is there ever a night when we don’t want to stack the Seattle Mariners? They are one of the best offenses in baseball, especially against left-handed pitching where they rank first with a .409 wOBA, .280 ISO, and .981 OPS. Tonight they will face off against Mike Minor who, after an impressive complete game shutout against the Angels, came back down to earth in his last start against Oakland, allowing four earned runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts in six innings of work while taking the loss. Every bat in this lineup is on the radar today but if I had to narrow it down I would prioritize the right-handed power. Minor was particularly bad last season against righties with a 4.83 xFIP and allowing a 47.2% fly ball rate and a 37.5% hard contact rate. Beckham (.403 wOBA, .272 ISO), Haniger (.368 wOBA, .304 ISO), Santana (.365 wOBA, .186 ISO), and Encarnacion (.354 wOBA, .213 ISO) all look like fantastic options. I’m not one for lefty against lefty matchups but both Vogelbach (.487 wOBA, .453 ISO) and Narvaez (.364 wOBA, .321 ISO) are worth a look. Even bottom of the order options like Bruce, Healy, and Gordon are firmly in play for this match up.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Joe Musgrove (RHP – Pittsburgh Pirates)

This is a small slate. Seven games that may very well turn into six. If you’re playing larger field tournaments you’re going to need to give yourself some exposure to places others aren’t going to be on and hope it comes through. This game between the Dodgers and Pirates has the lowest total on the board at just seven runs and should go completely overlooked by the masses from an offense standpoint. Musgrove has been solid this season including a 1-1 record, 1.59 ERA (3.80 SIERA), 0.85 WHIP, and 24.3% strikeouts to just 5.6% walks. But, if we look at a larger sample, something standing out to me is his issues with left-handed batters. This is a problem against a loaded left-handed power lineup like the Dodgers. In 2018, Musgrove had a 4.18 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, only 17% strikeouts, while allowing a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters compared to a 3.73 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 23.6% strikeouts, with a .267 wOBA to right-handed batters. I like Los Angeles to exploit this and potentially be a surprise team on this slate tonight. Pederson (.461 wOBA, .478 ISO vs RHP), Seager (.369 wOBA, .203 ISO vs RHP), and Bellinger (.628 wOBA, .516 ISO vs RHP) are core pieces for stacks. Muncy is off to a slow start but his 2018 numbers against right-handed pitching certainly keep him in the conversation. You can obviously work in the right-handed batters as well. It’s not like Musgrove is unhittable against righties. I just prefer the left-handed bats based on the splits. This is an offense capable of putting up big numbers against anyone that could carry single digit ownership tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Yu Darvish (RHP – Chicago Cubs)

Until Darvish shows us something (literally anything) he’s a pitcher we need to start attacking. He’s got an ugly 5.46 SIERA which is in line with his 5.96 ERA and the BABIP is slightly below average at .276 but not enough to make any significant differences. He still carries some strikeout potential at 23.8% this season but he’s walking an incredible 17.1% of batters and has an awful 1.72 WHIP. Bottom line, there’s nothing here to suggest he’s eventually going to figure this out. Meanwhile, the Arizona bats are starting to heat up. They’ve scored five runs or more in five of their last eight games and have two games of double digit runs scored during that span. This includes a 6-0 victory a week ago against Darvish where he allowed three earned runs and five hits in five innings (ironically one of his better starts). He did give up two home runs, bringing his total to six on the season in just five starts. Peralta checks in with a .383 wOBA and .216 ISO against right-handed pitching so far this season. Adam Jones continues his career long steady production with a .391 wOBA and .238 ISO. Marte (.327 wOBA, .233 ISO), Escobar (.356 wOBA, .179 ISO), Walker (.431 wOBA, .337 ISO), and Dyson (.406 wOBA, .211 ISO) are all solid options tonight. Arizona has an intriguing 4.5 implied total.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Brian Goodwin (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.6K) | OF | LAA @ KC

The Angels are not an offense that we often pay attention to but they have a sneaky good match up against Jorge Lopez tonight. Speaking of sneaky, Goodwin is quietly putting up some fantasy production, showing a solid floor with at least five fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and a solid ceiling with two games over 15 fantasy points during that span. In his last 150 games, he has a .566 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching. In his last 20 games, that jumps to a .709 wOBA+ISO. The tricky part with Goodwin is his spot in the lineup which has been all over the place from fifth to ninth. Obviously, the higher the better, but I’ll have interest either way.

Christian Walker (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.1K) | 1B | ARI vs. CHC

I quickly brushed over Walker in the stack section because I wanted to save him for a more detailed write up. Home runs are difficult to predict but this would be my selection for tonight. Walker has a massive .431 wOBA and .337 ISO in 98 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. His OPS is up to 1.051 and he has a ridiculous 67.7% hard contact rate. In the past two weeks, he has a 54.2% hard contact rate (just 8.3% soft contact) with three barreled balls and an average exit velocity of 95.4 mph.

Christian Yelich (DK: $5.7K, FD: $4.9K) | OF | MIL @ NYM

The Brewers offense will get overlooked tonight against Noah Syndergaard and rightfully so. They have just an implied total of 3.4 runs. I’m not planning to roll out any stacks against Thor but on nights like this I love to give myself one off exposure to someone like Yelich, who is in play against any pitcher in the league, but will carry significantly less ownership. I don’t care about the 18 plate appearances against Syndergaard and the .228 wOBA+ISO. An 18 PA sample is nothing. I care about the incredible .780 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 150 games and the 94.1 mph average exit velocity, five barreled balls, and 47.1% hard contact rate in the past two weeks. Is the floor lower against a pitcher like Synergaard? Absolutely. But is the ceiling still there? Yes, and that’s all that should matter.

Best of luck today!

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