Top MLB DFS Plays 4/27 | Thriving on a Tuesday!

April 27, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We have an absolutely VOLUPTUOUS 13-game main slate coming at us on this fine Tuesday evening and it’s another “dealer’s choice” kinda day. We have a few aces taking the hill, some cheap pitchers who may be worth ‘punting’, several offenses in juicy spots, some viable value bats to consider, and we may even see some advantageous hitting weather come into play. So, with so much to dig into let’s not waste much time getting into the nitty-gritty. Also, shout out to the GOAT @ZeroInDenver for covering yesterday’s MLB newsletter. To keep the ZeroInDenver hype rolling, here’s a big…

“LETSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!”

Main slate match-ups with implied team totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

No rain/PPD threats!

KC @ PIT / NYY @ BAL / WAS @ TOR / CHC @ ATL: Temps in all of these games will be at, or near, 80 degrees. Not a major boost to hitters, but at least the bats in these parks won’t be fighting against cold temps and the negative impacts they can have on batted baseballs.

PHI @ STL: This is another game where temperatures at the first pitch will be close to 80 degrees but that will also be accompanied by winds blowing OUT to left at 10-15 mph. Again, no incredibly significant boost to bats, and Busch Stadium isn’t necessarily a great hitter’s ballpark, but it’s definitely the best hitting conditions on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lucas Giolito (RHP) | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.6k | vs. DET

Let’s hope the Lucas Giolito we saw take the mound last Monday against Boston (1.0 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 ER, 0 K |-17.8 DKFP, -18 FDFP) was just some guy that looked like Lucas and was able to snag a White Sox uniform and weasel his way into the park. After getting his scheduled start pushed back a few days due to a cut on his finger, we should expect Gio to step right back into an ace-level workload. Despite the absolute shellacking he received at the hands of the Red Sox which bumped his ERA up to 5.79, Giolito is still sporting an excellent 2.92 xFIP and 32.1% kRate. Detroit isn’t exactly the pushover team that we can always pick on like in years past. They do possess a .176 team ISO versus RHPs, which is the 6th best in the league. However, their .291 wOBA ranks 21st, 88 wRC+ ranks 18th, and they still strike out quite a bit with a 27.3% kRate against righties (4th highest). If Gio can avoid giving up the big hits, the Tigers may struggle to get other baserunners aboard. The White Sox are also the heaviest favorites on the slate with massive -255 moneyline odds.

Ian Anderson (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHC

Anderson stands out as a strong mid-range pivot off of chalky aces like Scherzer/Giolito and ‘tier two’ arms like Buehler/Javier, who should also garner some solid attention and ownership. Anderson’s numbers in 2021, while not remarkable, are solid. His 3.45 xFIP ranks 6th on the slate and he brings an above average 24.5% kRate to the table while limiting hitters to a .229 AVG. I would look for his kRate to go on the rise after he faces off with the righty-heavy strikeout-prone Cubs who hold a 27.3% kRate against RHPs. The Cubs offense definitely has the fire power to explode offensively, but in the majority of their games, they have struggled to produce even just three or four runs.

Jose Quintana (LHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.7k | @ TEX

On DraftKings, if ya want one of the top arms as your SP1 while also being able to squeeze some big bats into the mix, you’re of course going to need to take a stand on some cheap SP2 candidates. After throwing 95 pitches in his last start against this same Rangers team and striking out eight batters and allowing just two hits, Quintana should likely be considered underpriced on both sites today. Quintana has only pitched 20.0 innings since the start of 2020, but he has an impressive 30.5% kRate in that span. If he continues that trend while also reaching a pitch count somewhere in the 90s, then he should easily pay off these salaries. I have to say the obligatory “I’m not a huge fan of playing pitchers facing the same team within the span of a week” but Texas has struggled all season against lefties (76 wRC+ vs. LHPs, ranks 27th) so he should have a great chance to post a similar performance like the one we saw out of him last Wednesday.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It can be hard to tell on huge slates like this, but I’m not really seeing too much love head towards anyone or two teams in particular. I suppose we could see a few Yankees bats exceed 15-20% ownership since their 5.2 implied run total is the highest on the slate, but that stack has failed us plenty of time this season. It’s very easy to be unique in GPPs when 26 teams are in play, so no real need to stress over stack ownership today, IMO.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

Anaheim has been a little banged up but if Shohei Ohtani is able to suit up, they should essentially be at full strength tonight going up against Foltynewicz. Across his four starts and 22.0 IP this season, Folty has already given up eight homers, which equates to a massive 3.27 HR/9 Rate. He’s also allowing a very lofty 50.0% HardHit% and an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph (bottom 15% among pitchers). The Angels rank 3rd in the league with a 120 wRC+ against RHPs and they possess plenty of power in the heart of their order. Folty will be backed up by a Rangers bullpen that has a poor 1.43 WHIP and has home run issues of their own, giving up 1.71 HR/9.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

I’m looking to take advantage of the favorable hitting conditions in this game and I’m leaning towards the Phillies as being the preferred side of the plate to target. Carlos Martinez is only striking out 14.9% of hitters this season while also giving up a high 49.3% HardHit% and stranding just 55.6% of runners on base. His fastball velocity is down 2.5 mph when compared to his career average and I just don’t see many reasons to actively avoid him. The Phillies have been a fairly average offense when facing righties, but I like their chances to hit a couple of homers and plate 6+ runs today.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), SD

Is this really all that ‘crazy’? Not really, but Vegas is only giving Arizona a 4.1 run implied team total so they’re not putting much faith in these bats. The D-Backs have been one of the hotter teams in the league and have gone 6-1 over their last seven games. Across the last week, they check in at 2nd in the league with a 127 wRC+ and their team .220 ISO tops the charts. Chris Paddack is a perfectly fine starting MLB pitcher who I wouldn’t typically look to target, but I don’t mind getting exposure to some pieces of this D-backs order.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

It’s pretty tough to ignore a guy who has smacked out five homers in his last three games. Now he gets to take a few swings at Merrill Kelly, who has struggled with giving up power throughout his career.

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Yuli’s been very hot as of late, hitting .391 over his last six games with a .537 wOBA, .435 ISO, and263 wRC+. He gets another shot at a lefty pitcher, which he has been highly productive against this season (222 wRC+ vs. LHPs).

C Will Smith | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jeff Hoffman (RHP), CIN

Smith has been struggling at the plate lately but he could produce in this match-up against Hoffman who has shown poor reverse splits throughout the season and his career.

3B Kyle Seager | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

Liking Seager as an ‘against the grain’ play today as he faces off with a fly ball pitcher in Javier who can struggle against lefty hitters at times. Seager is starting to see the ball really well and has produced a 50.0% fly-ball rate on the season. If he gets the barrel on one against Javier, it’s probably going over the fence.

3B Gio Urshella | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

Urshella isn’t exactly having a banner year but he’s simply too cheap and will likely be hitting 4th or 5th in this Yankees order. He also has hit lefties for a solid .286 AVG this season and should find his power sooner rather than later.

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Daniel Castano (LHP), MIA

He’s not guaranteed to start but if he is in the lineup today, the Brewers have been slotting Taylor in near the top of the order and he’s a dirt-cheap bat that can help you spend up on better arms or bigger bats. It’s a very small sample size (19 PA), but he’s hitting .400 this season with a .526 OBP, ,530 wOBA, and .333 ISO.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

Let’s see if we can hunt down a homer in this game that features those appealing hitting conditions (near 80 degrees w/ 10-15 mph winds blowing out). Harper has been raking lately regardless and doesn’t exactly need wind or warm weather to help him blast some baseballs. He has eight barreled balls over the last 14 days (top 95th percentile) and he’s also slammed two homers off of Martinez in just 11 plate appearances against him. Let’s go Bryce!

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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