Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/26/19: On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Happy Friday to the best DFS community around! Ryan is off, so you’re stuck with me for the next few days. Today is a very big day in baseball, as MLB’s top prospect, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is being called up to make his much anticipated Major League debut tonight against Mike Fiers and the Oakland Athletics. Guerrero’s father sent out a great tweet shortly after it was announced:

Guerrero should immediately slide into the middle of the order and gets a juicy match up against one of the most home run prone pitchers in baseball, Mike Fiers. I expected him to be more expensive on DraftKings and I actually expected him to not even be in the player pool on FanDuel because they always seem to screw that up. He checks in as a potential value play on both sites. He’ll be crazy popular tonight so he could be a good fade in tournaments but he’s definitely in play before the price jumps up in the coming weeks. I’m not sure what I’m more excited about, Guerrero’s debut or the long anticipated return of the great Joe Pisapia to the “On Deck” podcast today (link above).

The other big story is Jacob deGrom is expected to start tonight after a short stint to the IL and an MRI on his elbow. The price on deGrom is cheap, by his standards, but it’s sketchy after the elbow scare and a couple of poor starts. In cash, I need to see a clean start before I roster him, especially since there are other options I like tonight. In tournaments, he’s a fade if his less expensive price makes him popular and in play if the field decides to stay away because of the injury. In total, we have 15 games on this Friday night slate. Here are your match ups and Vegas lines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

James Paxton (DK: $9.6K, FD: $11K) | LHP | NYY @ SFG

Paxton has been everything the Yankees hoped for and more in the early going of his Yankees career. He’s coming off two consecutive starts with 12 strikeouts including an eight shutout inning performance (just two hits allowed) against the Red Sox. In 2018, he had a 2.96 SIERA with 32.9% strikeouts and 6.5% walks. He’s picking up right where he left off this season with a 2.91 xFIP, 36.8% strikeouts, and a 1.14 WHIP. His batted ball profile is pretty average. He’s allowing 35.4% ground balls and 43.1% fly balls as well as 18.5% soft contact and 32.3% hard contact. There’s very little to be concerned with in any of these numbers. The best part? He faces the Giants tonight and the game is in San Francisco – one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. The Giants are 27th with a 66 wRC+, 28th with a .270 wOBA, 24th with a .128 ISO, 29th with 5.4% walks, and then middle of the pack with 25.2% strikeouts (although Paxton doesn’t need any help getting strikeouts). He checks off all the boxes tonight and has the ability to go toe to toe with Scherzer for less money.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (DK: $8.2K, FD: $9.5K) | LHP | LAD vs. PIT

Ryu’s price is looking very good on DraftKings tonight at $1.3K less than he is on FanDuel. The Pirates are dead last in the majors right now against left-handed pitching. They have a miserable .258 wOBA, 0.96 ISO, and 57 wRC+ to go along with a MASSIVE 30% strikeout rate. The big question with Ryu is always health related. In 2018, he only pitched a total of 82.1 innings. But when he was on the hill, he was outstanding with a 3.18 SIERA with 25.2% strikeouts. Health is still a concern this season, as he already left one start early this year and then missed another start before coming back strong last Saturday against Milwaukee going 5.2 innings and allowing two earned runs and striking out nine. You should be okay today from a health standpoint but just be aware there’s always a bit of added risk with Ryu. The only downside I’m seeing is his reverse splits where in 2018 he was lights out against right-handed batters including a 2.81 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 29.6% strikeouts, and just 2.4% walks. Against lefties, oddly enough, he had a 4.21 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, only 20.8% strikeouts, and 11.7% walks. Obviously, that’s not ideal, but given Pittsburgh’s track record against lefties so far this season, I’m not worried about it. Which left-handed bat in this lineup makes you nervous? Moran? Bell? Polanco is really the only bat here that gives you any pause. Ryu is a comfortable -167 favorite in a game with a low 7.5 total, and he’s at home in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. He’s one of the best options on the board today.

Max Fried (DK: $8K, FD: $8.6K) | LHP | ATL vs. COL

Truth be told, I don’t like much in the value pitching tier tonight. Tyler Skaggs is likely to be popular based on name recognition and his price tag but I generally don’t make a habit of rostering pitchers making their first start off the IL. Jared Eickhoff has a good matchup against Miami but 1) that game looks unlikely to play 2) he’s a bit overpriced 3) it’s Jared Eickhoff. For me, I’m going to find the extra few hundred bucks to get to Max Fried as my cheaper pitching option tonight. The Rockies, away from Coors, against a left-handed pitcher? Yes please. Colorado has shown signs of life recently, going 8-2 in their last ten games, but their numbers overall are still pretty brutal. They have a .276 wOBA, .151 ISO, and 54 wRC+ this season against left-handed pitching while striking out 27.8% of the time. Away from Coors, it’s even worse with just a .241 wOBA, .118 ISO, and 45 wRC+ while striking out 29% of the time. The risky part about Fried is we don’t have a ton of data to go off of. He threw just 33.2 innings in the majors last season but was very impressive with a 3.77 SIERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 31% strikeouts. He did allow 42.1% hard contact but also forced 51.4% ground balls. This season, despite his 3-0 record, he has a 1.38 ERA but a 4.39 SIERA, which is a red flag. The .247 BABIP against him suggests he’s been a bit lucky thus far and could be in for some regression. The strikeout rate is also down to only 17.3% so far and the contact rate is up. He’s allowed seven hits in each of his last two starts but he’s been fortunate to scatter them over several innings and not get himself into trouble. With Colorado’s lack of power, particularly away from Coors, Fried’s ability to force ground balls, and the Rockies massive strikeout rate, I like Fried to stay out of trouble here and bring enough upside to return value on his reasonable salary.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Minnesota Twins vs Alex Cobb (RHP – Baltimore Orioles)

We’ll get the obvious one out of the way first. The highest implied total tonight belongs to the Twins taking on Cobb, who they absolutely shelled the last time they faced each other on Saturday. In that game Cobb went 2.2 innings allowing nine earned runs on 10 hits (including three home runs) while striking out just two. Unfortunately for Cobb, this is basically picking up where he left off in 2018 after finishing with a 4.62 SIERA, 1.41 WHIP, and just 13.5% strikeouts while allowing a .344 wOBA to opposing hitters. I found an article on FanGraphs by Jeff Zimmerman that talked about how before his Tommy John surgery, Cobb was throwing his splitter 35% of the time with a 62% ground ball rate and a 14% swinging strike rate but since the surgery he’s only throwing it about 20% of the time, as he’s likely worried about re-injuring his elbow. Whatever the case, from a DFS standpoint, he’s a pitcher to attack and Vegas clearly agrees with the Twins’ massive 5.2 implied run total today. Everybody in this lineup is in play with Polanco (.501 wOBA, .394 ISO), Cruz (.402 wOBA, .241 ISO), Rosario (.364 wOBA, .333 ISO), and Kepler (.354 wOBA, .211 ISO) being the priorities.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Mike Fiers (RHP – Oakland Athletics)

Remember a few weeks ago when Toronto was almost no-hit every game for basically a week straight? They were the laughing stock of baseball and all we wanted to do was play pitchers against them as often as possible. Well, times are changing, and this lineup has been heating up and suddenly looks a whole lot different. Sogard, Galvis, Guerrero, Smoak, Grichuk, Tellez, Hernandez, McKinney, and Jansen. Tell me where the weak link is? There’s a ton of talent, power, and upside in every spot in this lineup. Tonight, in addition to getting Guerrero, they have the added benefit of facing Mike Fiers who allowed 32 home runs (3rd worst in baseball) last season and has allowed 43% hard contact and six home runs in six starts this season. He’s a low strikeout, high hard contact pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls. In Oakland, one of the best pitcher’s park in baseball, he can sometimes get away with it. On the road, in a more hitter friendly park like the Rogers Centre, he’s one of my favorite guys to attack. One of the best parts about the Blue Jays is they are relatively affordable, making it easier to put stacks together. Smoak (.436 wOBA, .286 ISO), Galvis (.384 wOBA, .274 ISO), and Tellez (.375 wOBA, .280 ISO) all look like strong options tonight. Grichuk has plenty of power upside (.227 ISO) albeit with high strikeouts (27.4%). Sogard has been raking in a small sample with his .426 wOBA and .208 ISO in 26 plate appearances. Plus, there’s this Vladimir Guerrero guy.

Seattle Mariners vs. Shelby Miller (RHP – Texas Rangers)

On bigger slates like what we have tonight the later games often get overlooked. If that’s the case again here, the Mariners could break this slate wide open as one of the best offenses in baseball right now taking on Shelby Miller. Miller has been awful. A 7.63 ERA (7.50 SIERA), 2.22 WHIP, only 7.3% strikeouts, and 15.9% walks. He’s allowing 49.2% hard contact and 1.76 HR/9. Can you blame some of his struggles on the fact he’s on the Rangers now and has pitched three of four starts at home in hitter friendly Texas? Honestly, no, because SIERA is park adjusted so even when you include that in the calculation it’s still lining up with his awful ERA, suggesting it’s not a park issue, it’s just a bad pitcher issue. All of the Seattle bats are in play tonight. The LineStar Daily Matchup page (if you’re not using this you’re missing out) currently has Dan Vogelbach as the top hitter on the board tonight. It’s pretty difficult to argue with this. I have interest in every bat in this lineup. If you’re in the money tonight in a tournament without any Seattle exposure before this game starts, chances are you won’t be in the green when it’s all said and done.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Matt Carpenter (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.3K) | 3B | STL vs. CIN

Carpenter is off to a slow start by his standards but if you recall the same thing happened last year and everyone left him for dead before he went on a tear and right back to being one of the best hitters in baseball by mid-season. The larger samples don’t lie. In his last 150 games, Carpenter has a .679 wOBA+ISO and 2.15 FP/PA against right-handed pitching. In the last two weeks he has a 92 mph average exit velocity and a 47.6% hard contact rate (suggesting that he’s heating up). In 2018, DeSclafani allowed 41.8% hard contact and a .385 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Carpenter is way too cheap on both sites for this matchup. Oh, for those of you who are BvP believers: 28 PA, 1.195 wOBA+ISO. Personally, I don’t pay attention to BvP, but the sample is large enough here to take notice and the numbers are jumping off the daily match up page.

Rowdy Tellez (DK: $4.1K, FD: $2.5K) | 1B | TOR vs. OAK

Tellez is still basically free on FanDuel and while obviously more expensive on DraftKings but still reasonably priced, particularly for this match up. I’ve already talked quite a bit about the Blue Jays tonight with their match up against Fiers. Tellez has a .436 wOBA and .340 ISO in his last 150 games against right-handed pitching. More recently, he’s had a 53.8% hard contact rate and a 92 mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks. As if the match up against Fiers wasn’t good enough, the Oakland bullpen is also struggling against left-handed hitting, ranking 26th with a 2.37 FP/PA allowed.

Byron Buxton (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.4K) | OF | MIN vs. BAL

The Twins, with their “Coors Field-like” implied total tonight are going to get a lot of attention. Somebody like Byron Buxton, hitting at the bottom of the order, could be a piece that goes a little overlooked. We’ve been waiting on Buxton to figure it out at the major league level and slowly but surely he seems to be putting the pieces together. In 64 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season he has a .353 wOBA, .220 ISO, and a .852 OPS. He has crazy stolen base upside as well, which adds to his appeal.

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