By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

A loaded MLB Tuesday comes at us today with an 11-game main slate awaiting on deck! There is quite a bit to dig into for this one but I’d like to quickly pose a question by asking readers if you’ve changed your DFS approach at all this season given the historically low offensive numbers being posted? The MLB collectively hit .217 across yesterday’s games and the overall average this season continues to sit at .231. More fly balls are dying at the warning track so home runs and overall runs are down, strikeouts continue to rise, and the overall odds seem to be stacked up against the hitters. We’re also not even three weeks into the season and there is plenty of time for things to change, especially as the weather gets warmer. But, as if it wasn’t tricky enough, the current MLB meta certainly makes finding the right stacks/bats for DFS purposes even more of a challenge! It’s a challenge we must take on and conquer, so let’s try to do that on this huge Tuesday slate, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There will be a couple of spots on the east coast to keep an eye on due to potential wet weather.

MIA @ WAS (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): The worst of the rain occurs pre-game and bleeds into the time frame where the first few innings should be played. Rain chances decline later into the evening, around 8 pm ET, so it seems like the most likely scenario here is that they’ll start late but play without issue once they get going. Double-check the forecast closer to lock. For now, I’ll be keeping all MIA/WAS players in DFS consideration.

BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): It’s looking like there will be slightly more risk here than in Washington as light rain moves in right around the first pitch but the overall coverage increases later into the evening instead of tapering off. If they play, they’ll probably have to play wet. Whether they elect to play or postpone, it wouldn’t surprise me either way given the current outlook. Run a double-check on this forecast closer to lock as well. I’m hesitant enough here to where I’ll avoid mentioning players/stacks from this game in the newsletter.

KC @ CWS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center.

CHC @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

LAD @ ARI (9:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): The roof at Chase Field will be OPEN. Temps in Phoenix during this game will mostly be in the low-90s.

OAK @ SF (9:45 ET, 6.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center but, as a reminder, Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts. The Giants haven’t played at home in a couple of weeks so I thought I’d throw that reminder out there. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.1k | vs. OAK

I won’t spend much time here because Rodon is about as obvious as it gets on this slate. The man is dominating with an astronomical 44.6% kRate through three games. The next closest pitcher kRate on this slate belongs to Josiah Gray who has posted a 31.0% kRate -- Rodon’s kRate checks in over 45% higher than Gray’s! Rodon will take the mound at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park and face an A’s team that has easily been a bottom 10 offense against LHPs: .202 AVG, .272 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 27.5% kRate (third-highest). The Giants are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate (-270) while the A’s possess a paltry 2.6 implied run total, which is nearly a half-run lower than the next closest team. Rodon’s ownership will be through the roof but he should likely be a cash game staple in lineups today.

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. BOS

Gausman has a tougher match-up than many other pitchers on today’s slate, but he comes at an enticing price on DraftKings at $8,700. The $10,200 price on FanDuel wouldn’t put me off of him too much either since it is entirely feasible that Gausman could end the slate as the highest-scoring DFS pitcher while checking in with much lower ownership than Rodon (and at $900 cheaper). Also, should we really consider this Red Sox match-up to be a tough one right now? Boston has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last seven games and in that time they’re hitting only .216 with a .241 wOBA, .072 ISO, and 52 wRC+ against RHPs (179 plate appearances). One of Boston’s recent offensively challenged games came against Gausman last Thursday where he needed just 88 pitches to get through eight full innings, allowing one run, and he recorded eight strikeouts. In 18.2 IP this season, Gausman has yet to issue a walk and he has recorded a slate-best 1.82 xFIP which is paired with an eye-popping 20.7% Swinging Strike Rate, which also leads the slate by a decent margin (Rodon, next closest with a 16.8% SwStr%). Usually, you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% and that’s about where their overall kRate will land. Gausman has a rock-solid 30.1% kRate already but that lofty SwStr% suggests he could see that number climb moving forward (though, that is an incredibly difficult figure to maintain). Boston isn’t a super strikeout-prone team (21% vs. RHPs, ranks 23rd) but, as mentioned, they did strikeout eight times against Gausman five days ago. It’s always a little riskier to roll with a pitcher who is facing the same team twice in such a short window of time, but Gausman is no scrub and should be able to post another strong performance this evening. The Blue Jays are heavy -200 favorite while the Red Sox carry a low 3.3 implied run total. In 142 PA against Gausman, the Red Sox are hitting only .194 with a .241 wOBA and .070 ISO.

Eduardo Rodrigues (LHP), DET | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | @ MIN

Paying up for pitching seems to be the most optimal route to take now more than ever... but among today’s low-priced arms, Rodriguez stands out as possibly the best value on the board. His statcast numbers are concerning, so there is some obvious risk to be had. His HardContact% and LineDrive% are both unusually high. His 19.7% kRate and 7.5% SwStr% are also noticeably lower than his strikeout numbers from last year (27.4% kRate, 11.7% SwStr%). His called strikes are down a couple of percentage points as well but these 2022 numbers are all coming from only a 13.2 IP sample size. I believe we need to see about five full starts or 25-30 IP from a starting pitcher to begin getting an idea of what level they’re pitching at this season. E-Rod is coming off of his best start of the season as well. Against the Yankees last Wednesday, he threw 6.0 innings on 98 pitches and allowed four hits, one walk, and three runs, thus earning him a “quality start.” The Twins are hitting only .214 against LHPs this season (ranks 20th) and their 98 wRC+ puts them smack-dab in the middle of the MLB offensive rankings at 16th. Their 24.3% kRate is the 12th-highest strikeout rate against lefties as well. If Rodriguez pushes for 100 pitches once again, this is a match-up in which he can excel. I don’t expect a lock-down performance, but six solid innings would be just fine in my book.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

It’s probably no surprise seeing the Dodgers highlighted here once again. They are the only team on the slate with a >5.0 implied run total. Walker Buehler’s 10 K CGSO performance was the talk of the town last night, while the offense did “fine” scoring four runs. Some of the usual suspects like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, and Will Smith all had quality fantasy performances despite facing a fairly tough D-Backs starter in Merrill Kelly. The Dodgers should have an easier time with Zach Davies on the bump tonight. Davies can have his good games but when opposing offenses get to him, they usually *really* get to him. To no surprise, the Dodgers have been a top-five offense against RHPs this season with a .259 AVG (4th), .349 wOBA (3rd), .177 ISO (5th), and a 131 wRC+ (4th). They’ve averaged 5.22 runs/gm on the road this season and the roof at Chase Field is open once again in Phoenix where game time temps will be in the low-90s. Once again, a major key to this stack will be getting Davies retired quickly and getting as many innings as possible against the D-Backs bullpen. Yesterday, after Kelly threw six full innings, D-Backs reliever Tyler Gilbert came in and pitched through the remaining three frames while allowing only a couple of hits and one run. But some of the other bullpen arms should struggle to replicate Gilbert’s success. Arizona’s bullpen still ranks dead last with a 4.81 xFIP, 4.35 SIERA, and a 15.5% kRate.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy | Sneaky Bat: Chris Taylor

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

The Blue Jays just faced Pivetta six days ago and were able to hang five runs on him in four innings thanks to seven hits (one HR) and four walks. Pivetta’s 10.03 ERA and 5.33 xFIP checks in as the second-worst figures among today’s starters. His 15.5% Walk Rate is the highest and no other pitcher starting today is getting hit as hard and as often as Pivetta is: 56.4% HardContact%, 95.2 mph average exit velocity, 12.1% Barrel%, .563 xwOBA. A quality Red Sox bullpen will be there to support Pivetta but if the Blue Jays do enough damage to him early, perhaps Boston elects to save some of their better relief arms. Even with all of the low hitting/scoring numbers going on across the league this season, the Blue Jays have been quite deadly at home where they have averaged 5.57 runs/gm and, against RHPs, they’re hitting .291 with a .388 wOBA, .246 ISO (!!), and 153 wRC+.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Zack Collins., George Springer | Sneaky Bat: Raimel Tapia

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians (RHBs) vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

The Guardians have put up some big numbers at times this season but after getting shutout last night and scoring two runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games, I doubt many people will be looking to stack them up on this huge slate where there are many more appealing options. Sandoval has also looked pretty solid in his two starts this season. He’s a quality strikeout pitcher (30.6% kRate) and didn’t allow a run in either start (0.00 ERA). However, he has a not-so-great 3.97 xFIP, a high 13.9% Walk Rate, and a slate-high 57.9% Fly Ball Rate. Sandoval has traditional splits and has not been great against RHBs (2.20 WHIP, .395 wOBA). For that reason, I’d consider running out some Cleveland RHBs and see how it pans out. The Angels bullpen also isn’t all that great (4.18 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 3.77 SIERA -- all bottom-six numbers) and Angel Stadium is a quality hitter’s park.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Owen Miller, Myles Straw | Sneaky Bat: Franmil Reyes

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Daulton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

3B Austin Riley | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,600 on DraftKings

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

1B/2B/SS Owen Miller | DK: $3.4k, FD:$3.5k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

C Zack Collins | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

3B/SS Danny Mendick | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

2B Gosuke Katoh | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

Home run calls are tough to predict to begin with and the dead ball being used right now doesn’t make things any easier. It’s been a bit of a personal HR drought but I’ll be looking to end that with Marcell Ozuna today. Ozuna’s eight barreled balls vs. RHPs in the last two weeks are the second-most of any hitter on this slate. He already has four home runs this season but realistically, given his 57.1% HardHit%, he could easily have two or three more. As a Braves fan myself, I’ve watched almost every inning of every game this season and have witnessed numerous Ozuna fly balls die at the warning track, perhaps five feet or so from going over the fence. Perhaps those 10 mph winds blowing out at Truist Park will help those warning track fly balls leave the park. I have respect for Marcus Stroman as a pitcher but he has given up a home run in each of his three starts this season (two to RHBs) and he’s allowing a 54.8% HardHit% along with an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph, which puts him among the bottom 5% of pitchers. Here’s to Ozuna crushing one out today!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Zack Collins OVER 0.5 RBIs | +155 | 3.0 Units

Collins has not been an everyday starter but he’s in the lineup and slotted in at clean-up today which will put him in a great spot to come through with an RBI. Nick Pivetta just hasn’t “had it” up to this point in the season and he’s posting a 2.14 WHIP. It’s only a 29 PA sample size, but Collins is hitting .286 against RHPs this season with a huge .405 wOBA and .393 ISO. Five of his eight hits against righty pitching have gone for extra bases (two 2B, three HR). With George Springer, Vlad Jr., and a surging Bo Bichette hitting ahead of Collins today, I love his chances to bat one of those guys in for a run. These +155 odds on over 0.5 RBIs appear to be a great value.

Blue Jays (-200), Dodgers (-215), Giants (-270) Moneyline Parlay | +200 | 1.5 Units

I'll be taking three heavy favorites to win today and tossing them into a parlay to bolster the payout. The Blue Jays have been excellent at home and they’re 4-1 against the Red Sox in their last five meetings in Toronto. Gausman is on the mound as well with Nick Pivetta as his counterpart? Sign me up for a Blue Jays 'W.'

The D-Backs have shown a bit of life in their bats over the last week, but the talent differential is still too wide here, especially on the offensive end. The Dodgers can also go to their overpowering bullpen if Tony Gonsolin happens to struggle.

Finally, Rodon being on the mound for the Giants is about all I need to feel good about a San Francisco win tonight. The A’s still have some key hitters on the COVID list and they’re batting just .202 as a team against LHPs this season. The Giants are also 5-2 in their last seven games against the A’s and, after a two-week road trip, they return home where they are 4-2 through six home games this season.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!