By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Welcome back for another loaded week of MLB DFS action! Seven games are on the Monday docket today. All seven will fall onto the official DraftKings main slate whereas FanDuel has elected to make its main slate consist of the five games beginning at 7:07 ET or later. However, since there is also an “All Day” slate on FanDuel which features all seven games, for the purposes of this newsletter, players from every game will potentially be highlighted below. So keep in mind that the first game of the slate (SF @ MIL) will officially begin at 6:10 ET!

Side note: I can’t wait until DK and FD decide to line up their main slate game selection on a much more routine basis!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Most games are being played in domed ballparks today and there isn’t much to be concerned about in the outdoor games.

COL @ PHI (6:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing right to left.

NYM @ STL (7:45 ET, 6.5 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing a bit out to right, a bit left to right.

LAD @ ARI (9:40 ET, 9 O/U): The roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be OPEN tonight. Temperatures in Phoenix, AZ will be 90 degrees at the time of first pitch and hover in the mid-80s all game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.8k | @ STL

I have no idea what DraftKings was thinking when they pinned Scherzer with this $9,300 salary. It’s about $1,000 too low if you ask me. He’ll no doubt end up being the highest-owned pitcher on the DK slate, but it’s chalk you may want to consider eating. Aside from some slight concerns with his current 10.% Walk Rate, Scherzer has looked like his usual dominant self to start the 2022 season. He’s 3-0 across his three starts with a 2.50 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, and 0.89 WHIP, and he leads the slate with a 33.3% kRate. The Cardinals have a middle-of-the-pack offense against RHPs -- their .294 wOBA and 94 wRC+ both rank them 17th in the MLB. One downside is that they’ve put up the lowest kRate against righties this season at 18.8%. But this is Mad Max we’re talking about here and he has some strong and extensive BvP history against this St. Louis lineup. In 145 plate appearances against the Cardinals, Scherzer has allowed just a .157 AVG, .200 wOBA, and .045 ISO, and has posted a monstrous 37.2% kRate. Scherzer hit 102 pitches in his most recent start last Tuesday so we should expect him to push for, or exceed, 100+ pitches in every start moving forward. The Mets are strong -160 favorites while the Cardinals possess a slate-low 2.9 implied run total.

Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. COL

This is a pitching slate that is dominated by multiple aces at the top of the salary hierarchy. As a result, it seems that a rock-solid pitcher like Gibson has slipped through the cracks a bit. He threw an absolute gem in his season debut against Oakland (7.0 IP, 82 PC, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K -- 39 DKFP/61 FDFP) but followed that up with a couple of forgettable performances on the road. He’s playing the same opponent (the Rockies) in back-to-back starts, which is always a bit of a concern. But, unlike last Tuesday, Gibson gets to face the Rockies at home and not in Coors Field. It’s only a 97 PA sample size, but against RHPs on the road this season, the Rockies have only a .151 AVG, .250 wOBA, .151 ISO, and 61 wRC+. That’s a massive difference from their splits against RHPs at home: .297 AVG, .368 wOBA, .185 ISO, 114 wRC+. Gibson has an excellent 2.67 xFIP through his three starts this season alongside a slate-best 16.3% Swinging Strike Rate. Gibson’s current 27.5% kRate is uncharacteristically high for a guy who has a career 18.5% kRate across 1,354.0 IP in his MLB career. But he has worked hard on adding a cutter to his pitch arsenal and, thus far, he has thrown that pitch 22.8% of the time and it seems to have a direct impact on his increased kRate up to this point in 2022. The Phillies are heavy -180 favorites at home today and even if Gibson isn’t able to keep his current kRate at a high level, he’s a guy who can eat up a ton of innings and can usually be expected to handle 6.0+ IP with relative ease.

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. BOS

We all know Berrios has not looked great to start the season but these salaries are simply too low for a guy who typically garnered a DFS price tag in the $8k/$9k ranges (on both sites) last season. Berrios draws a match-up with the Red Sox for the second time in five days. But he had his best pitching performance against Boston last week and even though he allowed nine base runners (8 H, 1 BB), only one Red Sox run crossed the plate. He also notched six Ks on 96 pitches across 6.0 IP. This sort of “good but not dominant” result is typically what we can expect from Berrios. He’s also a guy who has pitched more efficiently at home throughout his career. Of course, this is his first full season with the Blue Jays and he didn’t even make it out of the first inning in his season debut (which came at home) against Texas. However, in nine career starts (49.2 IP) at Rogers Centre, Berrios has a 3.26 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .219 opp AVG, .275 opp wOBA, and 25.5% kRate. Those are some very ‘Berrios-esque’ numbers that scream “good, not great.” Even though the Red Sox represent a tough match-up and, as mentioned, they will see Berrios pitch for the second time within a week, there is notable value to be had given these DFS salaries. The Blue Jays are also slight -125 home favorites while the Red Sox possess a low 3.7 implied run total. If (and it is a fairly big “if”) Berrios can avoid his patented ‘blow-up inning’ then he should fare quite well given these DFS salaries. 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

If Kelly was facing just about any other offense today, he probably would have been highlighted in the pitching segment above. He has been great to start the year while posting a 0.59 ERA and 2.65 xFIP across his 15.1 IP. However, the Dodgers are not a team Kelly has enjoyed pitching against. In 109 PA against Kelly, the Dodgers are batting .398 with a .451 wOBA, .243 ISO, and only a 16.5% kRate. Getting Kelly’s pitch count up by forcing long innings and stubborn at-bats will be a major key to this Dodgers stack’s success. The earlier they can get Kelly off the mound, the better as that would lead to more opportunities against an awful D-backs bullpen that has posted a 4.85 xFIP (worst in MLB), a .256 opp AVG (worst in MLB), and a meager 15.1% kRate (lowest in MLB). The roof will also be open at Chase Field today and 90-degree temperatures in Phoenix are expected at the time of first pitch. With historically low batting averages being posted this season, we’ll take any slight edge we can get.

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger | Sneaky Bat: Will Smith

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Kyle Freeland will be getting his first non-Coors start of the season following three consecutive starts in his extremely hitter-friendly home ballpark. In those three games, he came away with a 7.71 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, and a 14.7% kRate. As you can tell by his xFIP, Freeland has not pitched as poorly as his 7.71 ERA would indicate… but he clearly hasn’t been good. Across his MLB career, which has been played entirely with the Rockies, Freeland has posted fairly even home/road splits. In general, he has not benefited much, if at all, from pitching away from Coors… which is a little unusual. He’ll be facing the same Phillies offense for the second time in back-to-back starts (this seems to be a running trend for pitchers today). Against LHPs at home, the Phillies have been a top 10 offense with a .340 wOBA and 119 wRC+. If you watched Sunday Night Baseball last night, you can probably assume the Phillies hitters are ready to take out some of their frustrations on Freeland and the Rockies today. Not only were the Phillies on the receiving end of a career-best 13 K performance from Eric Lauer, but they had to face three dominant Brewers relievers after him while also contending with an erratic Angel Hernandez strike zone. Once Freeland is retired for the day, a bottom-five Rockies bullpen will take over for the remainder of the game.

Favorite PHI Bats: Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura | Sneaky Bat: Alec Bohm

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

Valdez falls on the extreme end of the ground ball specialist spectrum and he’s normally not a pitcher to attack. His 70.3% GB% last season led all other starting pitchers (min. 100 IP) by nearly 10%! He’s already forcing a 74.4% GB% this season but he’s also showing some plate control issues with a slate-worst 16.1% Walk Rate. The Rangers have also been strong against lefty pitching this year with a .260 AVG, .344 wOBA, .192 ISO, and a 130 wRC+ -- all are top 10 offensive figures. The Angels were able to beat up on Valdez when they faced him last Tuesday (8 H, 4 BB, 6 R) and they’re a team that hasn’t been quite as strong against LHPs as the Rangers have been this season. So it stands to reason that Texas can find some success in this spot against Valdez. The Astros bullpen has been decent but not necessarily dominant so if Valdez gets knocked off the mound early, the Rangers could still draw some good match-ups against the Houston relievers. 

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

3B Alex Bregman | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Marcus Semien | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Joc Pederson | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$3,500 on DraftKings

1B/2B/SS Owen Miller | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Sam Long (LHP), SF

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

1B/OF Josh Naylor | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Merrill Kelly has been a tough dude to hit against early on this season. He is still allowing a high 40% HardHit% and will be on the mound at home at Chase Field where the roof will be open and warm Phoenix temperatures could help increase the home run possibilities. Freddie Freeman has played 33 games at Chase Field in his career and in those games he has smashed with a .384 AVG, .480 wOBA, .319 ISO, 206 wRC+, and NINE home runs! Freeman already has a couple of HRs off of righty pitchers this season while batting .372 against them. If he doesn’t go yard against Kelly, Freeman will still have some home run upside against a terrible D-backs bullpen.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 | 2.5 Units

Vladdy Jr. may be on a 10-day home run drought -- unusual by his standards -- but he has still recorded either multiple hits or an extra-base hit in five of his last six games. He’s batting .370 against RHPs this season and will go up against RHP Nathan Eovaldi today. In three career starts at the Rogers Centre, Eovaldi has posted an 8.04 ERA, .309 opp AVG, .420 opp wOBA, 1.72 WHIP, and has allowed five home runs. Guerrero just may end his home run drought today which would insta-cash this prop bet, but even without a dinger, he’s a solid bet to record multiple hits or a double which makes this o1.5 bases prop at even money odds very enticing.

Shane Bieber OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | -150 | 2.0 Units

We’re not getting a crazy payout off of this prop bet but, when he’s healthy, Bieber is one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the league. He didn’t eclipse 80 pitches during his first two starts of the season but in his most recent start, which came against the White Sox last Wednesday, Bieber threw 86 pitches and struck out seven. The Guardians are understandably cautious with Bieber’s workload but his leash should be close to fully extended tonight. If we get 90+ pitches from Bieber today, he should sail past the 6 K mark with relative ease. The Angels have a couple of the most dangerous hitters on the planet at the top of their order but they also have eight hitters in their current projected starting lineup who have at least a 20% kRate vs. RHPs this season and five with a >26% kRate. Overall, the Angels have a 23.7% kRate vs. RHPs this season, which is higher than the White Sox (21.4% kRate). So, if Bieber can get seven Ks against CHW on 86 pitches, he should be able to get *at least* seven Ks against the Angels on a (presumably) heftier workload. 

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!