Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/24/19 | “On Deck” Podcast w/ Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

We’ve got ourselves a main slate that I’m sure Goldilocks would be a fan of. A seven game slate; not too big, not too small. The are decent pitching options and solid offenses to target. All 30 teams are in action throughout the league today and weather across the country looks pristine for each and every game, especially for the ones this evening. Hopefully someone out there got a GPP take down or two on the early slate! Let’s take a look to see what the MLB has in store for us tonight...

Here are tonight’s match-ups & Vegas lines/totals:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k) | RHP | HOU vs. MIN

With the other two priciest pitchers, Hamels and Buehler, going against one another’s strong offenses in a hitters park, Verlander is the clear guy to spend up on the mound today despite the fact that the Twins have been a highly capable offense. Verlander has a couple things going for him today; one, he’s Justin Verlander and two, he’s at home in Minute Maid Park. Strong analysis, right? The Twins are obviously good, especially against RHP. This season against righties they have a .357 wOBA, .235 ISO, and 122 wRC+ with an 18% kRate, which is the second lowest strikeout rate in the league. However, Verlander has scored below 24 DKP against Minnesota just once since 2015 (seven games) while averaging 8.1 strikeouts. The likely Twins hitters have a career BvP of 30-175 (.171 AVG) with a .220 OBP against JV as well. Houston is a massive -260 favorite today and with the likelihood of gaining strong run support from his offense, that should make Verlander the easy choice to spend up on.

Jordan Lyles (DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.8k) | RHP | PIT vs. ARI

Since getting pulled from his last start with a hand bruise after getting hit by a comebacker, it appears the injury wasn’t serious and Lyles will be good to go for his Wednesday start. He has been excellent through 17 innings of work this season, posting a 0.53 ERA (3.78 xFIP), .175 AVG, .237 BABIP, 0.88 WHIP with a 29% kRate. Against RHPs, the D-backs fall around the league average in most primary stats worth noting: .320 wOBA, .185 ISO, .319 OBP, 97 wRC+, and a 23.8% kRate. They’re a decent offense but not one that needs to necessarily be avoided. PNC Park was home to the sixth fewest adjusted runs last year, so check that off as another positive for Lyles. The Pirates are slight -116 favorites while the Diamondbacks have a 3.7 implied run total.

CC Sabathia (DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k) | LHP | NYY @ LAA

The veteran southpaw will get set for his third start of the season out in LA tonight and it doesn’t get much better from a match-up perspective. The Angels are hitting lefties to the tune of just a .201 AVG, .267 wOBA, .112 ISO, .292 OBP, and they have a 67 wRC+. As I mentioned with German yesterday, LAA doesn’t strike out very much -- just 16.6% against LHPs. But while that may hurt the opposing pitcher’s fantasy numbers, they make up for it by just not putting up a ton of offense in general. Sabathia isn’t really a pitcher that has relied on huge strikeout numbers in his career anyway. His eight punch outs through 10 innings this season has led to a 21.6% kRate that is right around his career average of 20.6%. Instead, he is producing a 54.2% ground ball rate and getting outs the non-sexy way. Sabathia is always a threat to get blown up, however, and I do think he’ll be popular tonight, so definitely keep an Angels stack in mind for tournaments. This game is a pick ‘em with both teams projected with a 4.5 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tyson Ross (RHP - Detroit Tigers)

It’s pretty safe to say that the Astros as well as some Orioles bats are a couple strong teams to stack up today but, while the Red Sox offense may be sputtering along, they have too many weapons to not break out soon. They’ll see Tyson Ross take the mound today, who has put up some pretty okay numbers through his four starts and 24 innings this season: 3.38 ERA (4.33 xFIP), .231 AVG, .243 BABIP, 1.25 WHIP. So… yes, not terrible numbers. However, he has just a 17% kRate and has given up four home runs that has resulted in a very concerning (for Ross) 21.1% HR/FB Rate. That could be a much needed boost for a Red Sox team that currently has the fourth lowest HR/FB Rate at 11.8%. Most of these Boston bats are relatively discounted in relation to their actual talent, so I don’t mind mixing and matching any of the guys who land in the top five in the order. Andrew Benintendi (.387 wOBA, .196 ISO vs. RHP this season) and reverse splits hitter Mitch Moreland (.404 wOBA, .414 ISO) would be my two favorite guys to target.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jason Vargas (LHP - New York Mets)

I’ll take a shot on stacking against Jason Vargas any time he takes the field. He’s gotten off to an incredibly bad start this season: .354 AVG, .459 wOBA, 9.58 ERA (7.67 xFIP), 10.9% kRate, and 2.32 WHIP. The Phillies have a ton of righties that can deal some damage to him in a hurry today. It’s also important to remember that this Mets bullpen has struggled mightily this season as well: 5.36 ERA (5.21 xFIP), .317 BABIP, 1.56 WHIP, 1.58 HR/9. The best place to start would likely be with Rhys Hoskins (.440 wOBA, .278 ISO vs. LHP this season) and Andrew McCutchen (.356 wOBA, .188 ISO). Also, if speedster Roman Quinn is in the lineup, my call on him would be that he gets at least one stolen bag today.

New York Yankees vs. Felix Pena (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)

With the Yankees offensive lineup decimated beyond belief, you get a sort of rag-tag group of guys to choose from but it’s also not like this is a team that is playing poorly. They’re 7-1 over their last eight while averaging 5.9 runs/game. They’ll get Felix Pena tonight who is off to a bit of a rocky start. Though he’s not allowing a ton of base runners with a 1.15 WHIP, nor a ton of runs with a not so terrible 4.15 ERA. His 5.76 xFIP indicates he’s getting a bit lucky early on in the season. Across his 17.1 innings pitched this year, he also has already given up four home runs with a 40.8% Hard Contact Rate on a 47.9% Fly Ball Rate. This Yanks lineup is unpredictable at the moment, in terms of figuring out a likely batting order many hours before lineups are released, but they’re all pretty affordable so it's just sort of a "pick who you like" situation. I’d personally start with the lefties: Brett Gardner (.398 wOBA, .294 ISO vs. RHP this season) and Mike Tauchman (.385 wOBA, .364 ISO).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Trey Mancini (DK: $5k, FD: $4.1k) | 1B/OF | BAL vs. CWS

Mancini got off to one of the more surprising and hottest starts in baseball after homering in six of his first twelve games. No dingers since then but he’s in a great spot to break the dry spell tonight. Ervin Santana has pitched 8.2 innings this season and has already given up five homers and ten earned runs resulting in a 10.38 ERA (8.22 xFIP). Of course the sample size is small but he’s just not striking people out and he’s giving up a ton of hits/walks with his 2.19 WHIP rating. Mancini is by far the best consistent source of offensive production on this team and he’ll rarely give you a complete dud result in your lineups.

Alex Bregman (DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k) | 3B | HOU vs. MIN

Even if you don’t fully stack the Astros due to their hefty prices, it’s always nice to take a one-off hitter towards the top of their order because they’re super effective at getting on base and batting one another in. The Astros one through four batting order this season has the following averages: .394 wOBA, .265 ISO, .380 OBP, 153 wRC+, and 45.1% Hard Contact with 24.8% HR/FB and they rarely strike out. Excellent numbers and that is with a slow start at the very beginning of the season. Bregman batting third constantly keeps him in the middle of all of this production and facing RHP Kohl Stewart is not really a match-up to worry about. Against RHPs this season, Bregman has a .333 AVG, .443 wOBA, and .228 ISO.

Grayson Greiner (DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k) | C | DET @ BOS

Well, I did have Chris Davis as the mega-cheap pick since I went with two fairly high priced one-off hitters to start with but Davis didn’t make the Orioles lineup today. Enter Grayson Greiner. Greiner is carrying a hot bat into Fenway tonight. Over the last three games he has gone 5 for 11 with two homers, a double and five RBIs. He’s facing LHP Eduardo Rodriguez who has allowed a .348 wOBA and .377 BABIP to RHBs across 16.2 innings this season. I’ll take a flyer on Greiner as a catcher to punt tonight.

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