Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/23/19 | “On Deck” Podcast w/ Chris Meaney & Greg Landry

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

This is a huge 13 game slate and an interesting one at that. I don’t believe you can look at any one game and say with 100% confidence that one team will defeat the other. Today is stacked full of evenly matched opponents. If you think pitching has been a virtual mystery to decipher thus far in the season, you are not alone! While no sport, particularly baseball, will ever be predictable at a professional level, there have been numerous situations this season involving pitchers that simply leave us shaking our heads in bewilderment -- either out of shocking disappointment or surprised amazement. This is a tough sport to figure out, no doubt. No one will ever truly master predicting this game… but that's what makes it great. The outcomes are limitless and unknowable. Despite the myriad of statistics we have at our disposal these days, all it takes is one swing of the bat to change the entire complexion of a game. And that’s why baseball has provided more quotes and idioms that can apply to life than any other sport.

So anyway, ‘there’s no crying in baseball’ so let’s ‘step up to the plate’ today, ‘keep our eye on the ball’ and go ‘swing for the fences.’

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas money lines/totals:

There are no immediate postponement threats today, though potential 10 mph winds blowing towards the outfield in both Baltimore (CWS @ BAL) and New York (PHI @ NYM) could give a slight edge to hitters.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Domingo German (DK: $9k, $9.3k) | RHP | NYY @ LAA

With the Yankees coming off of a 14-inning game against the Angels, German will have his start pushed up to today. He’ll be in an interesting spot as a pitcher to potentially spend up on. So far this season in 19 IP, he has a 31.1% kRate and .167 BABIP on just 27.3% Hard Contact with an elite 16.4% Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%). To this point, the Angels have the lowest SwStr% in the league at 7.1% with by far the highest Z-Contact% (Number of pitches on which contact was made on pitches inside the zone / Swings on pitches inside the zone) at 90.4%. German has an allowed 80.5% Z-Contact% -- which is a very strong figure for a pitcher to have. This should theoretically push German further into high strikeout upside territory even against a team that doesn’t necessarily strikeout a ton. The Angels have been massively over-performing at home given their splits: 5.67 runs/game at home, 2.82 runs/game away. If German can hold off the Angels from hitting home runs, which he has shown to excel at this season, they’ve put up the fourth lowest “batting average on balls in play” in the MLB against RHPs with just a .266 BABIP. With a tired Yankees bullpen, German may also have a longer leash on his pitch count today, as he has yet to eclipse 90 pitches in any of his three previous starts this season.

Patrick Corbin (DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.4k) | LHP | WAS @ COL

Corbin is arguably the most talented pitcher on this slate but he gets the Coors Field draw today, so therein lies the obvious catastrophic risk. So, while it’s rarely ever a “cash safe” option to target a Coors Field pitcher, there are times where you can catch low ownership on a high upside pitcher, like Corbin, in GPPs -- which is the only place you should target him today. The Rockies aren’t exactly obliterating opposing pitchers at home so far this season. They score an average of 4.70 runs/game in Coors Field -- which is the 14th highest home average in the league. And that has largely been against pitchers below Corbin’s skill level. Against LHP this season (293 plate appearances), Colorado is batting a .218 AVG, .286 wOBA, and .157 ISO with a 27.3% kRate and 60 wRC+. This is a Rockies team that just isn’t anything special right now as a whole but they just get that major boost when playing at home. Still, they’ve scored four runs or fewer in four of their ten home games this season and a match-up with Corbin could make it a fifth.

Trent Thornton (DK: $7k, FD: $6.7k) | RHP | TOR vs. SF

So through four starts this season, Thornton held up well in his first two games against two lackluster offenses (Tigers & Indians) and crumbled in his previous two games against strong offenses (Rays & Twins). He’ll set up at home today against a Giants team that no MLB pitcher should really fear. San Francisco has been terrible versus righties this year as they’ve posted a .196 AVG, .257 wOBA, .132 ISO, 23.3% kRate, .264 OBP, and 58 wRC+. In his first two starts, Thornton had 15 K’s and two earned runs in just 10.2 innings of work across those first two starts to the year. His following two starts across 7.2 innings did not go as well with nine earned runs given up against just six punch outs. This is a spot where a quick turnaround toward positive regression could be in order and he could show off similar numbers, as he had at the very start of the year, against one of the most favorable match-ups in baseball. Toronto is a slight -112 favorite and the Giants hold a 4.0 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Preface: The Nationals/Rockies game is at Coors Field tonight. Both teams are pretty clear candidates to stack and won't be mentioned below.

Chicago White Sox vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP - Baltimore Orioles) & Terrible Bullpen

I’m going back for seconds by recommending the White Sox as a top team to stack for today. It should seem obvious, because it is, considering they currently have the highest projected team total (5.3 runs). But in about an equally good spot yesterday, they still weren’t highly targeted. Aside from Yoan Moncada, no other CWS player had more than 11% ownership in DraftKings cash games -- but I suppose a “Coors slate” can skew ownership away from certain teams. I’m guessing public perception of this offense is still pretty low due to a lack of major success in recent seasons but they’re averaging 5.05 runs/game this year which checks in at 13th in the league. Cashner should probably go about five innings today and, while he hasn’t been terrible this season, he’s been far from good. In 25.1 innings he has a 4.97 ERA (5.52 xFIP), 13.6% kRate, 1.54 WHIP and has allowed 48.2% Hard Contact. Perhaps more of the White Sox stack’s viability lies with the Orioles bullpen. I know I’m kind of repeating myself from yesterday but… their relievers are a complete mess. To keep it brief, here are the Oriole’s bullpen numbers this season: 6.81 ERA (5.23 xFIP), .294 AVG, 1.67 WHIP, 2.38 HR/9. No bueno. Honestly, pick whatever bats you like from this Chicago lineup. Though, it should be noted that Cashner has shown poor reverse splits this season and all five of his home runs given up (and 13 of his 14 earned runs allowed) have come against right-handed batters.

New York Mets (LHB) vs. Zach Eflin (RHP - Philadelphia Phillies)

Similarly to the White Sox, I don’t think quite enough respect is given to this Mets offense that is currently averaging 5.41 runs/game (9th in MLB). It seems pretty safe to attack Eflin, particularly with lefties. In his career against LHBs, Eflin has allowed a .370 wOBA, .344 OBP, 5.00 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP and 2.17 HR/9. With so many directions to go today with hitters and different stacks, I don’t foresee major ownership falling on any of the following Mets lefties: Michael Conforto (.443 wOBA, .327 ISO vs. RHP this season), Robinson Cano (.334 wOBA, .246 ISO), and Jeff McNeil (.399 wOBA, .133 ISO). RHB Pete Alonso (.430 wOBA, .333 ISO vs. RHP) is of course the big bat in this offense that can go off no matter who is on the mound.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Homer Bailey (RHP - Kansas City Royals)

I’m not sure if I’m ready to hop on the “Homer Bandwagon” just yet… maybe if he shuts down the Rays tonight I’ll become a believer. For now, I’ll side with a solid Rays offense that has performed well against RHPs this season: .345 wOBA, .222 ISO, .334 OBP with a 120 wRC+. Bailey’s 29.4% kRate across his 23.0 IP this season is well above his career average of 19% and his strikeout rate is almost certainly due to regress unless the 32-year-old righty miraculously found some new tools in his bag to work with. To give credit where credit is due, Bailey’s 4.30 ERA is better framed by his above average 3.49 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA. Stacking against him certainly isn’t a slam dunk because he is pitching well this season. But for a guy who has been around the league for over a decade, we just kind of know who he is at this point: a very hittable pitcher. The Royals bullpen has also been a major weakness for them this season (5.19 xFIP, .360 BABIP, 1.75 WHIP) which adds a bit more upside to a Rays stack. The primary guys in this lineup that would have my interest are: Yandy Diaz (.410 wOBA, .339 ISO vs. RHP this season), Tommy Pham (.407 wOBA, .212 ISO), and Avisail Garcia (.400 wOBA, .268 ISO).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Nolan Arenado (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.6k) | 3B | COL vs. WAS

If you’re attacking Patrick Corbin, you definitely go after him from the right side of the plate and Arenado would be the guy in the Rockies order to do that with. Arenado is heating up quickly and now has four homers in his last seven games. He’s enjoyed a nice career against Corbin, especially over the last couple years. Against Corbin over his last 26 plate appearances, Arenado has a .474 AVG, .653 wOBA, .579 ISO, and three home runs. While I highlighted Corbin up in the pitchers section, he could definitely find himself struggling in Coors Field today (as most pitchers often do). In his 10 career starts at Coors Field, Corbin has a 6.55 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and has given up 10 HRs. Arenado is a major threat to add onto those numbers today.

Christian Walker (DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k) | 1B | ARI @ PIT

At this rate, grab some shares of Walker any time there is an opposing righty on the mound -- like the one he’ll face today in Trevor Williams. Walker is a reverse splits hitter that has been all over right-handed pitching this season with a .408 AVG, .531 wOBA, .449 ISO, .442 OBP and .609 BABIP. Six of his seven homers have come against RHPs as well. He also has a 38.5% kRate against righties, so he’s pretty much looking to go yard any time he steps to the plate against a RHP. Consider him a “boom/bust” option that has been much more “boom” than “bust” recently.

Matt Carpenter (DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k) | 3B | STL vs. MIL

Carpenter has been fairly solid as of late as the Cardinals lead off man. Since April 13th (nine games), he has a .349 OBP with two doubles, a triple, and two home runs. In his career against Zach Davies, Carpenter has been an extra base hits machine. In 25 plate appearances against him, Carpenter has gone 10 for 22 (.455 AVG) with seven XBH (four doubles and three home runs). Even if you don’t want to buy into the BvP narrative, Carpenter tends to be a reliable guy to roster in DFS lineups who will produce solid outings more often than he throws up a complete dud. He may be more suited for cash games, without having massive “slate breaking” upside, but he’s also very affordable across both DraftKings and FanDuel today and could be a cheap source of double-digit fantasy points.

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Best of luck today! Be sure to give the “On Deck” podcast with Chris Meaney and Greg Landry a listen if you haven’t already! You can find it linked at the top of the newsletter.

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