Top MLB DFS Plays 4/23 | Riding the A's Hype Train

April 23, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

It’s Friday ladies and gents, and that usually means that a major MLB slate is on deck. This Friday is no different as we’ll have a massive 14-game main slate to tackle this evening. As you may expect, this slate has it all and you can attack it any way you please. Pay up for aces? Stack Coors bats? Take a balanced approach? It’s all possible and viable today. Fortunately, it also looks like there are no real bad weather concerns tonight, so no postponements are expected. That’s a big ‘W’ on a slate of this magnitude. Plenty to dig into so let’s not waste any more time!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

KC @ DET: Wind blowing IN from right at 10 mph.

SEA @ BOS: Wind blowing OUT to center/right at 10-15 mph.

TEX @ CWS: Could see some light precipitation but nothing significant enough to threaten a postponement or even a delay. 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

MIA @ SF: 15 mph winds blowing OUT to left, but remember that wind doesn’t have as much of an effect at Oracle Park.

PIT @ MIN: Low-end chance for a shower making its way over the stadium so there is an outside shot at a delay.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k | vs. TOR

It’s never a bad idea to spend all the way up for Jacob deGrom ($10.9k/$12.5k), but pretty much everyone is aware of that. Most are probably up to speed on how good of a pitcher Tyler Glasnow is as well. But he’s certainly worth the five figure salary today and I suppose could be viewed as a bit of a pivot off of deGrom. Through four starts and 24.2 IP, Glasnow has been nearly unhittable this season. Opponents have just a .108 AVG and .151 wOBA against him. He’s also rocking a monstrous 40.0% kRate, 0.73 ERA, 2.36 xFIP, 0.65 WHIP, and a healthy 16.5% Swinging Strike Rate. Toronto has been average/below average against RHPs on the season. Against righties, they hold a .222 AVG, .292 wOBA, .134 ISO, and an 85 wRC+. They are not a super strikeout-prone team (23.7% kRate) but Glasnow should be able to increase that kRate tonight. On DraftKings, I wouldn’t be surprised if people try to jam in both deGrom and Glasnow into the same lineup, particularly for cash game purposes. Not sure if that’s the direction I’m heading, but from a floor standpoint, it makes plenty of sense.

Huascar Ynoa (RHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. ARI

If you’re not going the ace route at pitcher or if you want a more affordable SP2 on DK, Ynoa stands out as a worthy target. He wasn’t exactly sharp in his last outing against Chicago, so perhaps that keeps his ownership in the single digits. However, Ynoa’s 2.45 xFIP this season is the 4th best mark on the slate and he’s also averaging over a K per inning alongside a very strong 31.7% kRate. His K numbers could be up due to his fastball gaining a tick of speed this year with an average velocity of 97.3 mph (96.0 mph career average). Ynoa’s main problem up to this point in the season is giving up the long ball. The four home runs he’s given up on the year equates to a jarring 2.25 HR/9 Rate and he’s also allowing 55% Hard Contact. Fortunately, those numbers will surely begin to decline and he’ll be pitching against a Diamondbacks team whose 28.2% Hard Contact Rate versus RHPs ranks second to last in the league. They’re also striking out 24.9% of the time and possess a below average 85 wRC+ against righties. Atlanta is also the second heaviest favorite on the slate with -166 moneyline odds. If he can avoid giving up multiple home runs, Ynoa could end the night as one of the better values at pitcher.

Alex Wood (LHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. MIA

Wood missed the first couple weeks of the season due to a back strain but he looked sharp in his season debut, which happened to come against this same Marlins team five days ago. Wood threw 42 of his 61 pitches against Miami for strikes and held them scoreless through 5.0 IP. He allowed just three hits and struck out four while also earning the win -- good for 21.5 DKFP/33 FDFP. He could still have some sort of light pitch restriction, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push close to 85-90 pitches in his second start of the year. As I’ve stated before, I don’t necessarily love playing a pitcher against hitters who have seen his stuff once already in the last five days, but Wood’s season debut was encouraging enough to where my worries about that are a bit mitigated. This game also sports a low 7.0 run O/U (tied with SD @ LAD, Darvish vs. Kershaw for lowest total on the slate) with Miami possessing just a 3.4 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: With Coors Field back in play, expect the Phillies and Rockies to have some fairly high ownership. No issues playing them (or any high-owned players/stacks) since it is super easy to be different elsewhere on a 14-game slate.

Oakland Athletics vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

I don’t expect the A’s to exactly fly under the radar tonight, but it only makes sense to get a piece of this team that has been red hot for the past couple of weeks. Major Moneyball vibes are radiating from this 2021 Oakland Athletics team as they enter Friday on an 11-game win streak. It’s tough to imagine Jorge Lopez and the Orioles halting their momentum tonight. Since Oakland’s win streak began on April 9th, they have boasted a .369 wOBA, .242 ISO, 145 wRC+ while hitting 22 home runs and creating 40.4% Hard Contact. Every one of those numbers ranks 1st in the MLB during this two-week stretch and if you take their splits versus RHPs, the numbers only improve. Combine all of that with the fact that they’re getting a pretty significant park upgrade at Camden Yards, the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

Boston Red Sox (RHBs) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Which Yusei Kikuchi shows up tonight? If it’s the erratic and shaky version, then expect some of these Boston bats to excel. I’m particularly interested in the Red Sox righties, as Kikuchi has traditional splits and is tough versus LHBs but significantly worse against RHBs. Kikuchi has faced 779 righty hitters in his career and has allowed a .290 AVG, .361 wOBA, 1.49 WHIP, 1.72 HR/9, 36.6% Hard Contact, and has struck out just 17.8% of batters. Boston hasn’t necessarily been ‘dominant’ against LHPs this season but they do still rate out as an above average offense versus southpaws and I believe they have four or five bats that could really give Kikuchi and the Seattle bullpen some trouble.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Los Angeles Angels vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), HOU

I doubt the Angels will catch much ownership on this slate since many people still attach plenty of respect to Zack Greinke’s name. And, by all means, he is still a highly serviceable MLB pitcher at 37-years-old. However, he hasn’t necessarily had the easiest time dealing with the hitters in the Angels lineup. In 199 plate appearances against Greinke, the current Angels roster is hitting .289 with a .363 wOBA and has struck out just 13.1% of the time. Greinke’s kRate is down to a measly 16.2% in 2021 and while he has posted a solid 2.81 ERA through 24.2 IP this season, his 4.40 xFIP tells us he is due for some regression. Mike Trout is almost always going to fall onto people’s radar but everyone else within the Angels lineup will likely have single digit ownership.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), ARI

Decent chance that Acuna returns to the lineup tonight. Assuming he plays, he will likely be fairly low-owned as most people look to pay up for deGrom/Glasnow and avoid a pricey hitter coming off of an injury. So, big leverage here if you take him as a one-off, though albeit a bit risky. He’s arguably the most dangerous hitter in the league when healthy and Luke Weaver has been giving up a lot of power this season (48% Hard Hit%, 2.16 HR/9).

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

Judge’s bat has been a little quiet lately but that may change after he gets some cracks at the lefty Logan Allen tonight. In his past 122 plate appearances against LHPs, Judge is hitting .343 with a .459 wOBA, .313 ISO, and 192 wRC+. Logan Allen also allows 43.3% Hard Contact to RHBs and has shown some struggles pitching on the road. Judge is a definite candidate to go yard tonight.

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

Against lefties this season, Yuli is 10-for-26 (.385) with a .498 wOBA, .308 ISO, and 233 wRC+. Both of his HRs this season have come at the expense of southpaws as well. He’s already had some success against Andrew Heaney, hitting .294 against him in 17 PA alongside a pair of home runs and six RBIs. Love him as a one-off if he’s hitting 4th or 5th in the order tonight and with so many other tempting options at first base on this slate, his ownership will be low.

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), BOS

Haniger is putting together an excellent season as the Mariners lead-off man. He already has five homers behind a .320 AVG, .395 wOBA, .289 ISO, and 166 wRC+. He has a .333 batting average against Perez in 24 PA. I’ve run quite a few mini two-man stacks with Haniger and 2B Ty France ($3.8k/$3.2k) this season. They’re always affordable and often put up some quality fantasy points.

3B/1B Alec Bohm | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Bohm hasn’t been exceptionally good this season but he’s a serviceable hitter playing at Coors Field who will likely snag the 4th or 5th spot in the order.

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

Another affordable Coors bat. Tapia rarely gives you a complete goose egg and should continue to hit at lead-off tonight. Doesn’t have great power but he’s capable of going yard at home and also has some stolen base upside.

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), TOR

Matz is having a solid season but these prices for Margot are too cheap. Margot has been an above average hitter this season with a 115 wRC+ and excels more against lefties. Should get a solid spot in the order and doesn’t need to do much to return value here.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C J.T. Realmuto | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Shout out to Rafael Devers for the dinger yesterday. Would love to get two in a row, baby! I always feel a little dirty leaning on Coors Field for my home run call, but going with Realmuto was too tempting. In 57 career plate appearances at Coors Field, Realmuto is hitting .408 with a .482 wOBA, .306 ISO, and 206 wRC+. He has also produced a 42.5% Hard Contact Rate at Coors and has a couple of home runs there as well. Marquez is a quality pitcher in my book but obviously, the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field can outweigh a pitcher’s skill more often than not.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue of the Daily Ledger by leaving a 👍 or 👎 at the bottom of the page!

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.