By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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We’ve got another modest main slate on the horizon on this fine Thursday evening with five games on tap. While it may have taken a few innings for things to get going yesterday, before long it was clear that offenses were going to dominate the slate. With the lack of quality starting pitchers stepping on the hill tonight, we could see hitters reign supreme once again -- that’s the expectation anyway! It’s always fun to get a little creative on these smaller slates because you don’t necessarily have to go in a hundred different directions to be ‘different’ in GPPs. But from an entertainment standpoint, I believe we’re in for an exciting evening of baseball, especially with the Padres and Dodgers capping off the night with the opening battle of their four-game series. If you’re able to stay up late enough without ‘future you’ hating yourself the next day, I highly suggest catching as many of these Padres vs. Dodgers games as ya can this season. It’s must-see TV for baseball fans and I’m one of the millions of people who have adopted San Diego as my second-favorite team. That Dodgers squad just isn’t fair, man.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Good news: no postponement threats!

SEA @ BOS: 15+ mph winds blowing OUT to center & right. It’s still going to be cold (temps in the 40s) but a solid bump to the bats. Particularly lefty power hitters.

NYM @ CHC: Winds blowing OUT to center at about 10 mph. Slight bump to batters over at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

MIA @ SF: 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left. As stated in the past, Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impact by the Bay, but sometimes that seems like a fabrication. If anything, the winds should give at least a sliver of extra advantage to the hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Walker Buehler (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SD

Getting the obvious guy out of the way because Buehler is really the only ‘stud’ on the slate. He hasn’t had the most torrid start to his season and the Padres (who he is going against in back-to-back starts) are no pushovers, so perhaps that will scare some folks off of him. I believe you start this slate deciding on what you want to do with Buehler and go from there. Through three starts and 18.0 IP, he’s only registering a 17.1% kRate which is a far cry from his career 28.1% kRate and his fastball speed is also down a tick (95.5 mph this season vs. a career 96.6 mph fastball velo). He’s still limiting base runners with a flat 1.00 WHIP and boasts a solid 2.00 ERA, which is backed up by a somewhat concerning, but still decent, 4.03 xFIP/4.07 SIERA. I’d understand if you opt to go elsewhere, but Buehler’s best games of 2021 are in front of him. He should be viewed as the safest floor play at pitcher tonight, though rostering him comes at the cost of losing out on playing a bunch of big bats in the same lineup.

Alex Cobb (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | @ HOU

We’re of course still dealing with a very short sample size when it comes to pitchers this season, but across Cobb’s two 2021 starts and 11.2 innings, he has posted a slate-low 1.68 xFIP while recording a very strong 34.7% kRate and a superb 19.1% Swinging Strike Rate. Unless your name is Shane Bieber or Jacob deGrom, it isn’t going to be easy to uphold numbers like that. But Cobb will be going against an Astros team that has rated out as a bottom five offense versus RHPs in the last two weeks with a .265 wOBA (ranks 29th), .118 ISO (28th), and 74 wRC+ (27th). They were without some key hitters during a large part of that stretch, but even with a fully healthy lineup, Houston has rarely impressed this season and they’ve actually averaged just 3.17 runs/gm at home in 2021.

Joey Lucchesi (LHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.4k | @ CHC

If you want all the bats your heart desires tonight and you’re willing to take on some considerable risk at pitcher, Lucchesi could be your guy. After the Cubs plastered 16 runs on the board last night, don’t expect many people to be excited about attacking them this evening. But, it’s important to remember that even though Chicago possesses a lot of power in their lineup, they’re also a strikeout heavy bunch. In the last two weeks, they have a league-high 32.1% kRate versus LHPs (38.1% kRate in last seven days), though that is countered with a 132 wRC+ (ranks 8th) and .369 wOBA (6th). After getting eased into the season (pitched two and three innings, 36 and 55 pitches) in his two 2021 appearances, I think we could *maybe* see Lucchesi push towards 75-80 pitches which, if the strikeouts are there, could be enough to return nice value. Lucchesi hardly played in 2020 but was a solid mid-rotation pitcher for the Padres back in 2018 and 2019. He could get completely rocked early but if I’m taking anyone out of this bottom range, it’s likely going to be Lucchesi.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stack: I wanted to just default to saying the Dodgers will be the chalk stack of the day, but I actually don’t believe they’ll be too highly owned tonight -- at least compared to what they typically have been. Realistically, I think people will look to lock in a bunch of Red Sox bats, and I love that stack today so I’ll ride the chalk train with everyone else, especially in cash. After impressing last night, I believe many will also chase the Cubs, as well, going up against Lucchesi. That could certainly work out nicely, but I stated my case for Lucchesi above so understandably I’m a bit lower on the Cubbies.

San Francisco Giants vs. Daniel Castano (LHP), MIA

You never really know what you’re going to get out of this Giants team, but they’re fully capable of pouring on some hits and homers and they’ll be loading up their lineup with plenty of right-handed bats tonight. Daniel Castano first made his MLB debut last season and has just 34.2 professional innings pitched to his name. In that time he has put up a 2.86 ERA, which is clearly a very solid figure. However, behind that thinly veiled ERA is a pretty terrible 5.53 xFIP and 6.02 SIERA. This basically tells us that he has been very fortunate in his time on the mound and his expected ERA is much closer to around 6.00. Castano also has a laughable 8.3% kRate at the MLB level and a fastball that only averages 90 mph. While the Giants have been fairly average against LHPs in terms of producing runs with a 97 wRC+ (ranks 17th), they have no shortage of power. As a team, they’re rocking a .207 ISO against southpaws (ranks 5th), and their 18.8% kRate is also the 4th lowest in the league. A not bad, but fairly mediocre, Marlins bullpen will back up Castano tonight and hitters should benefit slightly from those 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left field.

New York Mets vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), CHC

Trevor Williams has had a couple of quality outings this season but he is no stranger to getting blown up (as the Pirates demonstrated back on April 11th) so I’m on board with looking at the Mets as another stack option tonight. More specifically, a lefty Mets stack might be a preferred approach. Throughout his career, Williams has a lackluster 5.16 xFIP versus LHBs alongside a low 14.9% kRate, 1.45 WHIP, and has allowed a .333 wOBA. The Mets have been a borderline top 10 offense against RHPs this season and even though the runs haven’t necessarily been there, their underlying offensive numbers are on the rise as of late. They could also get some help by those 10 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

San Diego Padres vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

Once again, pour one out for the Padres and this insanely brutal stretch of starting pitchers they’ve had to go up against over the last week. With Buehler really being the only elite hurler on the slate, abductive reasoning should lead us to assume that most people won’t be looking to stack up the Padres against him. On a small five-game slate, that represents clear leverage. It can also simply be tough in general for starting pitchers to face the same team/batting order in back-to-back starts. On top of that, it isn’t like San Diego was mowed down by Buehler last Friday as they were able to knock seven hits against him and plate a couple of runs through his six innings. I probably wouldn’t look to roll out full four or five-man Padres stacks, but linking two or three of these hitters together in a lineup should produce plenty of leverage.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

3B Justin Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP)

Hey look, Turner is facing a lefty. Versus LHPs this season (28 PA): .391 AVG, .547 wOBA, .435 ISO, 249 wRC+. Should get two or three cracks at Weathers tonight and he’s a solid bet to hit for extra bases.

1B/OF Shoehei Ohtani | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

I could just copy and paste “Mike Trout” in this section for every day Anaheim is in play, but at this point, that’s just lazy. Ohtani is a fairly easy call too because if you want to get after Javier, it’s best to do it with power lefties. Javier is a fly ball pitcher who has given up 1.85 HR/9 to LHBs in his career, and Ohtani is simply crushing baseballs lately. Six barreled balls over the last 14 days put him in the 95th percentile. So does his 98.5 mph average exit velocity. The man is a freak of nature. Also, when it comes to Angels bats, keep OF Scott Schebler in mind. He’s a flat $2k on both sites and has hit 6th in the lineup the last two games.

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), SF

If Don Mattingly doesn’t slot Chisholm back at leadoff again tonight then… I don’t know, someone just give the man a mental check-up or something (I'm still salty about Jazz getting pulled in the 4th inning on Tuesday). Chisholm has easily been the best and most entertaining Marlins hitter this season, averaging .326 with a .450 wOBA, .304 ISO, and 188 wRC+ while stealing four bags. There is a good chance he continues to build upon his surprising 2021 success tonight.

OF Kyle Lewis | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Lewis was activated from the IL on Wednesday and was immediately slotted in as the Mariners No. 2 hitter so we should expect that to be the case again. Nick Pivetta has shown some poor reverse splits tendencies throughout his career so, on average, he struggles more against RHBs (like Lewis) more so than lefties. Lewis has also shown positive reverse splits, hitting RHPs for .284 throughout his career with a .361 wOBA, .214 ISO, and 133 wRC+. I always like positive reverse splits hitters going against negative reverse splits pitchers because most people just assume the “righty on righty match-up = bad”. Not always the case. If he’s active, 2B/3B Ty France (DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k) is another Mariner RHB that follows the same trend.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.4k | Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

Still looking for my first home run call to hit this week but I love Devers’ chances to end the drought and belt one out tonight. Devers already has five homers on the year, four coming at the expense of righties across just 43 at-bats. Versus those RHPs, he boasts a .326 ISO and has a blistering 50.0% Hard Contact Rate. Dunn has struggled mightily against left-handed power hitters like Devers. He has faced 146 lefties in his brief career and while he has only allowed a .178 AVG, he’s giving up a .362 wOBA and 2.05 HR/9 alongside a terrible 7.22 xFIP. With those 15-20 mph winds blowing out to right field at Fenway (away from the Green Monster), as long as they get under the ball, it should be fairly easy for lefty bats to smash one over that right field wall.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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