By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

It’s another big Friday across the MLB as every team will be stepping onto the diamond today. In total, 13 games and 26 teams are slotted onto the DFS main slates so it’s time to strap in for a busy (and hopefully profitable) night of baseball!

The young 2022 season is just barely over two weeks old but we have already seen around a 25% decline in home runs compared to last year; and last season, home runs were also down around 5% compared to the previous full season before that (2019). Overall scoring is down 5% (compared to 2021), batting average is essentially the same, and on-base percentage is slightly up. There are two newly-introduced factors in play that could explain the decrease in long balls. The first reason could stem from all 30 teams now using a humidor for their baseballs. But that should only account for a small decrease in HRs, not a ~25% drop-off! The biggest culprit is likely the deadened baseballs being used. The MLB supposedly deployed these new deadened baseballs last year but it reportedly wasn’t fully in use like it is this season. Many games were still played using the more big-hit-friendly ball from 2019. Weather and a shortened spring training schedule could also have some slight impacts on why HRs are down this season but not nearly as much as the dead baseballs would be to blame.

We’ll see if these trends continue, especially as we get into the warmer months. Many folks suggest that the change is good for the sport of baseball since there are more singles, doubles, and triples being hit and, in turn, more exciting defensive and offensive plays being made within the confinements of the field of play. At the same time, fans love home runs and they provide major momentum swings in DFS contests as well. I can’t say for sure just yet but MLB DFS approaches may need to be adjusted to adapt to the new dead-ball era. It’s certainly worth keeping an eye on and tracking in the weeks ahead!

Alright, let’s get into this slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CLE @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right field around 10 mph.

COL @ DET (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): This will be the primary game to keep an eye on for this slate, as far as weather is concerned. A band of heavy rain will be moving through the Detroit area at the time this game is set to be played. They could easily end up avoiding the rain completely but a change in the forecast could also lead to a washout and postponement scenario. Make sure to double-check the outlook here closer to the first pitch.

MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8 O/U): Warming up a bit with temps near 80 degrees at first pitch.

CHW @ MIN (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Lingering light scattered showers may force a late start, or perhaps they just play through it, but it’s nothing that should put this game in any sort of postponement danger. There will also be 15 mph winds blowing IN from center along with cooler temps in the low-50s, so the pitchers get a decent bump here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9k | vs. MIA

This is an interesting slate for pitchers and one where I imagine ownership will be spread out quite a bit. Kyle Wright isn’t a guy we’d normally expect to shell out $9k+ for, but up to this point in the early season, he has earned the right to garner these sorts of DFS salaries. Wright’s ascension began in spring training where he had two appearances, pitched 7.1 scoreless innings, struck out eight batters, and recorded a 0.82 WHIP. Through two starts and 11.0 IP in this regular season, he has posted a 1.64 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, alongside a slate-best 2.07 xFIP, 33.9% CSW%, and a massive 35.7% kRate. No one else on the mound today is even close to his 1.74 SIERA either. Whether or not he can sustain this success is up for debate but given his current 2022 sample size, albeit a small one, all of the surface stats and underlying metrics show him taking a legitimate non-luck-based leap forward as a certified MLB caliber starting pitcher. He draws a match-up with the Marlins today -- a team that has played well against RHPs this season. Miami’s .322 wOBA and 112 wRC+ vs. RHPs rank them 8th and 9th in the MLB, respectively. Their 22.3% kRate is decent but not overly high. If we work under the assumption that his recent positive trends continue, this is not a match-up that should scare us away from using Kyle Wright in DFS today. Considering he has a 1.67 HR/9 Rate across 81.0 IP in his MLB career, Wright may be a guy who will benefit noticeably from this new dead ball being used these days. He has yet to allow a barreled ball and his HardContact% is down from 39.2% for his career to 32% this season. The Braves are solid -145 favorites and the Marlins possess a low 3.6 implied run total.

Michael Kopech (RHP), CHW | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | @ MIN

After missing the entire 2019 and 2020 seasons, Kopech made 44 appearances in 2021. He was used primarily out of the bullpen and started in only four games. He never pitched more than four innings in a game last season but the White Sox appear to be committed to getting him fully stretched out as a permanent rotational starter this year. In his first start in 2022, Kopech threw 69 pitches across four full innings. He got bumped up to 75 pitches across five full innings in his last start six days ago. If he’s able to inch closer to something like 85-90 pitches, he could become a real DFS asset. Last year, Kopech posted an elite 36.1% kRate, 14.1% SwStr%, and 32.9% CSW% to go along with his 2.99 xFIP. Those numbers were almost certainly aided by being put into more advantageous situations since he mostly came into games out of the bullpen. He’ll be more of a GPP play but I’ll take a chance on him against a Twins team that has not been great against RHPs: .287 wOBA, 90 wRC+, 24.5% kRate. The weather also sets up very well for pitchers in this game with those 15 mph winds blowing in from center which is paired with cooler temps in the low-50s.

Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. KC

When searching for value on the mound today, Chris Flexen is one guy who stands out. It’s been a rough start to the season for him after allowing six earned runs across his 10.1 IP (5.23 ERA) and picking up the loss in both games. He’s also posting only a 13.6% kRate, 8.0% SwStr%, and a 22.1% CSW% while allowing a massive 61.8% HardContact%. But the hope here is that Flexen can eat up five or six innings at his pitcher-friendly home ballpark today while not getting rocked too hard against a struggling opposing offense. The Royals rank inside the bottom 10 in every key offensive metric against RHPs outside of strikeout rate (18.9%). They have only a .211 AVG, .271 wOBA, and 76 wRC+ against righties this season. The Royals also possess a low 3.7 implied run total and the Mariners are moderate favorites with -130 moneyline odds. While he wasn’t the most consistent guy, Flexen was a decent starting pitcher for Seattle much of last year and was typically priced more in the $7k range in DFS. He averaged nearly six full innings pitched per start and was often given a long leash that led to many 100+ pitch count games. He also pitched better at home where he had a 3.23 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He’ll most certainly give up some hits and a couple of runs, but as long as he doesn’t fully implode, there is a good chance he works through five or six innings and may find himself in position for the win. For a $6k-range pitcher, that’s about all we can ask for.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

It’s no surprise, the Dodgers are going to make for an appealing stack option for the majority of slates they find themselves on this year. Their 5.33 runs/gm rank second in the MLB behind only the blistering bats of the Cleveland Guardians (5.67 runs/gm). Today they face off against Nick Martinez who is trying to replicate the success he had while playing over in Japan the last few years. Martinez pitched well against the Giants in his season opener, allowing one run on five hits and struck out six across 5.0 IP. Things went south in his second start against the Braves where he gave up four runs on seven hits (three HRs) and four walks across 5.0 IP. With his two starts combined, he has a 4.89 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, and has allowed a .454 wOBA. I believe he’ll pitch decent in some spots this year but it doesn’t seem likely against a Dodgers team that comes in ranking second with a 141 wRC+ vs. RHPs. Petco Park is not a hitter-friendly environment and the Padres do have a solid bullpen they can bring in once Martinez is done for the evening. But the Dodger bats are simply too good top to bottom, so they’re once again firmly on the stack radar.

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger | Sneaky Bat: Max Muncy (expecting lower ownership due to his poor start to 2022)

Atlanta Braves vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

The Braves provide more potential value on DraftKings since nearly every Atlanta hitter’s salary has yet to normalize following that weirdly excessive price decrease from when they went up against Walker Buehler three days ago.

But regardless of whether you play DraftKings or FanDuel, the Braves appear to be in an attractive spot today. Trevor Rogers has already allowed nine earned runs through just 6.2 IP resulting in a 12.15 ERA. He’s not that bad of a pitcher but he is getting hit hard (50% HardContact%) and allowing a ton of line drives (37.5% LD%). The five walks he has issued are not helpful either. In 53 PA against Rogers, the Braves lineup is hitting .319 with a .375 wOBA. The Marlins bullpen has performed as a top 10 relief unit this season (3.42 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, .199 AVG) so there is some concern there. But the Braves still provide some notable stack appeal. They’re returning home from a seven-game road trip and had their first day off of the season yesterday so getting a little extra rest never hurts either. It’ll be nearly 80 degrees during the first pitch at Truist Park today, making it one of the better hitting environments on the slate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Matt Olson | Sneaky Bat: Travis Demeritte

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Glen Otto (RHP), TEX

With 26 teams on the board for this slate and no Coors Field in play, stack ownership will be spread out considerably. If it was about any other team going up against Glen Otto and the Rangers bullpen, some moderately high stack ownership would be expected. But it just doesn’t seem as if people are ever going to be thrilled looking at this Oakland A’s roster and feel compelled to stack ‘em up. It doesn’t help that they’re still dealing with several guys being on the COVID list. Even if the bats are not at full strength, they’re playing decently well and they are not far off from the middle-of-the-pack offensively. The A’s bats are also cheap and have an appealing pitching match-up today. Glen Otto will be making his 2022 MLB debut following limited work in the majors last year where he pitched 23.1 innings and produced a 9.26 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and .317 opp AVG. He does have some decent strikeout stuff and his 3.49 xFIP from last season shows that he pitched much better than that lofty ERA would suggest. Still, he’s an unproven pitcher at the MLB level and will be backed by a Rangers bullpen that has performed at a bottom 10 level this season (5.04 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 1.78 HR/9).

Favorite OAK Bats: Tony Kemp, Sheldon Neuse, Seth Brown | Sneaky Bat: Billy McKinney

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), BOS

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

SS Jeremy Pena | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

OF/3B Taylor Ward | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Bruce Zimmerman (LHP), BAL

2B/OF Tony Kemp | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Glen Otto (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

*3B Austin Riley | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

*OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

2B/3B Sheldon Neuse | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Glen Otto (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Darin Ruf | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

*Braves DraftKings Value

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

Ozuna is crushing the ball this season with a 60.4% HardHit% which ranks third among all hitters in baseball. All four of his homers in 2022 have been at the expense of RHPs but he’s only had 12 at-bats against lefties. Over his career, Ozuna has been a .290 hitter against LHPs and has produced a .218 ISO and 19.6% HR/FB Rate. Trevor Rogers isn’t known to give up many HRs (0.77 HR/9 vs. RHBs in his career) but so far this season he has been getting hit hard and often (50% HardContact%) and batted balls against him have traveled an average of 195.7 feet putting him in the bottom 15% of pitchers. The Miami bullpen has been good in general but their 1.27 HR/9 Rate is the fourth-highest in the MLB. With near-80-degree temps at first pitch in the hitter-friendly Truist Park, I’ll give Marcell Ozuna a reasonable chance to go yard today.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Matt Olson OVER 1.5 Bases from Hits | +140 | 2.0 Units

Trevor Rogers has never given up a home run to a left-handed hitter in 167.2 IP in his MLB career, but he has shown some poor reverse splits in other areas. He’s allowed a .270 AVG and .326 wOBA to LHBs as opposed to a .225 AVG and .285 wOBA to RHBs. Lefty bats are also 3-of-6 against him already this season, including a pair of doubles. Olson is batting for a cool .400 on the year, the third-best batting average in baseball. Eight of his 20 hits have gone for extra bases (six 2B, two HR) so plus money on over 1.5 bases looks solid for Olson today.

Zac Gallen UNER 4.5 Strikeouts | -110 | 2.0 Units

Gallen is pitching against the Mets for the second time in six days. His last start was his first of the season. He only went 4.0 innings on 66 pitches and struck out two in that game. Gallen also only threw 6.1 innings across two games in the spring, so he’s likely not close to being fully stretched out just yet. What also makes this prop appealing is the fact that the Mets have the lowest strikeout rate against righties in baseball with an 18.4% kRate. Gallen is a quality strikeout pitcher with a 27.4% kRate across his career but it’s never easy to face the same team in back-to-back starts and if his pitch count is still going to be fairly limited, there is a good chance he doesn’t throw over four strikeouts today.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!