By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Late Slate Rundown

It’s another one of those oddball Thursdays where most games are front-loaded onto the early window (1:10 ET - 4:05 ET). I know some folks love the earlier weekday slates, particularly when there are actually a decent amount of games to choose from like the one on the docket today. I mean, who doesn’t love slacking off at work so you can make some MLB DFS lineups? How’s the saying go again? “The boss makes a dollar, I make a dime. That’s why I build my DFS lines on company time.” Yeah, I think that's it.

But, for the LineStar newsletter and podcast, we’re almost always going to be in the business of highlighting the evening games when possible. Today it’s a pint-sized set of games with only three match-ups starting at 6:40 ET or later. Also, keeping up with a bit of a headache-inducing trend from this week, the game selection on the DraftKings and FanDuel evening slates are not lined up. I suppose it’s more of an inconvenience for me when it comes to writing up a slate since I try my best to keep an impartial approach by covering players evenly on both DK and FD. But I also know many of you play on both sites (on the same day) pretty regularly, so it can throw a wrench into things when constructing lineups for slates that contain some of the same games but not all.

For the sake of today’s newsletter, the focus will be on the three-game DraftKings slate that begins at 6:40 ET. I definitely wouldn’t blame anyone for skipping this slate or choosing to go light on the bankroll here. Small slates just aren’t some people’s cup of tea. But we won’t have to wait long for the next big slate to roll around with the monster 13-game Friday slate arriving tomorrow!

Anyway, enough babbling in the intro. It’s time to see what we can cook up on this minuscule Thursday late slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Two of the three games on this slate are played in domes so no worries there. The only outdoor game will be the PIT @ CHC match-up at Wrigley Field. It’ll be around 60 degrees with clear skies and light winds blowing out to right field. No real notable boost for either pitchers or hitters, just some nice mid-spring baseball weather.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. STL

The pitching options on this small slate leave quite a bit to be desired but we'll start with the top arm on the board. After a pair of starts, there was little time wasted in boosting Lopez’s salaries up close to five-figure territory. The match-up with the Cardinals also isn’t a great one. St. Louis is a fairly average team against RHPs, indicated by their 100 wRC+ (ranks 13th) and .228 AVG (15th). But the major downside is the fact that they’ve been very stubborn when it comes to striking out. Their 16.7% kRate vs. RHPs this season is the lowest mark in the MLB, and by a decent margin. But Pablo Lopez has pitched effectively through his first two starts in 2022 (10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 15.7% SwStr%). Both starts also came against solid offenses in the Giants and Phillies. Lopez is also taking the mound at his pitcher-friendly home ballpark. During his five-year career with Miami, Lopez’s 2.89 ERA at home is over 2.5 runs lower than his 5.48 ERA on the road. As you might expect, all of his other major pitching stats improve when pitching at home as well. If the Rangers weren’t crushing lefties (.379 wOBA, 156 wRC+), then Marco Gonzales ($8k/$8k) could potentially be considered to be the top arm on the slate. As it stands now, Lopez is the best bet to surpass the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold target, though we can expect him to be major chalk as well.

Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | vs. PIT

Mark Leiter Jr. should mainly be considered as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings but if you want to go against the grain on FanDuel, he may be worth a look as a GPP punt as well. Yes, Leiter got smacked around in his season debut (5 H, 4 BB, 7 ER, 2.70 WHIP, 3.1 IP) but we should cut him a little slack since he drew the Coors Field assignment which was also Leiter’s first MLB start since the 2017 season. There are several good tidbits to extract to make a case for rostering Leiter today. First, he reached a pitch count of 74 in his season debut start last Saturday, so expecting around 80-85 pitches today may not be a stretch (if he doesn’t get shelled early). Second, he pitched well in spring training where he struck out 10 batters across 9.2 IP and allowed only one run. To add to his success before this regular season began, he also had some strong numbers across 15 Triple-A starts in 2021: 3.34 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 30.5% kRate, 1.01 WHIP, .203 AVG. Thirdly, he draws arguably the best match-up on this three-game slate as Pittsburgh has only a 91 wRC+ versus RHPs to go along with a 27.3% kRate (second-highest in MLB) -- the Cubs are the heaviest favorites on the slate with -160 moneyline odds. Fourthly, he should be motivated to take advantage of this opportunity and pitch his absolute best considering he’s fighting for a spot on the big league roster with Alec Mills and Wade Miley (both on the 10-day IL) nearing their return to the rotation. And FINALLY, as if I even have to point it out, he’s dirt cheap on both DK and FD, despite having realistic starting pitcher fantasy scoring upside. Hell, there are even six hitters on the DraftKings slate who are more expensive than Leiter today. Sure, it has been five years since Mark Leiter Jr. was part of an MLB rotation, but he has shown the ability to pitch well as a big-league starter before so let’s see if he can get it done and provide some value at the SP position tonight!

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Chicago Cubs vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

The Cubbies are going to be the most heavily rostered stack option among the six teams we have to choose from on this slate, with the Mariners looking to be a somewhat distant second. With the way Bryse Wilson has pitched, not only in his two starts this year (8.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP) but across his MLB career… why wouldn’t you want some Cubs bats in your lineups? Across 125.0 IP in the MLB, Wilson has posted a 5.54 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .289 AVG, 1.73 HR/9, and has only a 15.6% kRate. The Cubs have been a top 10 offense against RHPs with a 119 wRC+ and .341 wOBA. The Pirates bullpen has posted a solid 3.12 ERA this season but they’re also benefiting from an unsustainable .203 BABIP (second-lowest among MLB bullpens). Their 4.29 xFIP is more indicative of their reliever talent and checks in as the fourth-highest bullpen xFIP in the league.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Villar | Sneaky Bat: Patrick Wisdom (playing well but he'll probably be stuck towards the back of the order again which may cause some to avoid him)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

It’s pretty clear why the Cardinals are highlighted in this section. Lopez should carry the most ownership among the six starting pitchers today so gaining exposure to the hitters going against him will be a fairly straightforward way to gain some leverage on such a small slate. While the Cardinals have been right at league average against RHPs (100 wRC+), as mentioned earlier, they do possess the lowest kRate against righties (16.7%) in baseball so Lopez may have to work through some longer, more difficult at-bats which could build his pitch count up rapidly. Thanks to his white-hot bat, Nolan Arenado will likely be a popular one-off option but, aside from him, we can expect low ownership from most remaining Cardinals hitters. Running a Cardinals stack WITHOUT Arenado may be one way to be even more contrarian in GPPs but you'll just have to hope and pray that he has a similar game like the one from two days ago against the Marlins where he went 0-for-4 (his first goose egg of the season). It’s worth noting that in 30 career games at LoanDepot Park in Miami, Arenado has only a .202 AVG in 114 ABs alongside a poor .242 wOBA, .114 ISO, .248 OBP, and 35 wRC+. Of course, he got a home run in this park yesterday and should probably be a core part of most STL stacks, but if we’re looking at the long-term picture, he’s never played consistently well in Miami.

Favorite STL Bats: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill | Sneaky Bat: Harrison Bader

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

1B/2B Ty France | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

3B/SS Joey Wendle | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), STL

2B Tommy Edman | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), STL

2B/SS/3B Nico Hoerner | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

1B/2B/3B Michael Chavis | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

3B/SS Charlie Culberson | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

C Tom Murphy | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

Home runs are feeling a bit scarce lately, or maybe it’s just my home run calls being ice cold making me feel that way. Seiya Suzuki probably makes for the easiest prospective home run hitter on this three-game slate and I have no shame in taking him today in hopes of getting another HR call on the board. Suzuki’s 28.6% Barrel% leads the majors this season and his 94.2 mph average exit velocity vs. RHPs places him in the 95th percentile among hitters. Bryse Wilson has faced 113 RHBs on the road in his career and has allowed seven HRs to those batters, resulting in a 2.30 HR/9 Rate and a 21.9% HR/FB Rate. Wrigley Field produced the sixth-highest home run park factor for RHBs last season and Suzuki should be primed to knock out his 5th HR of the season in front of the home crowd today.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Seiya Suzuki OVER 0.5 Runs | -115 | 3.0 Units

Bonus Bet: Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run | +625 | 0.5 Units

Suzuki has bounced around the order quite a bit, hitting mostly out of the 4/5/6 holes, but in the last two games he has been slotted at the two-hole. Given how many different lineups the Cubs have rolled Suzuki out in, it's no guarantee he lands there once again but for the time being that will be the assumption. It hasn’t produced a Suzuki run in the last two games, but if he's hitting second that would continue to put the better Cubs hitters behind him. Thanks to his absurd .565 OBP, Suzuki is probably getting on base a couple of times today, whether it’s by way of a hit (.387 AVG) or a walk (28.3% BB%). He possesses elite sprint speed (95th percentile) so it wouldn’t take much to bring Suzuki in to score once he does take a base pad or two. Chicago gets a plus match-up against a below-average starter in Bryse Wilson and the Pirates bullpen isn’t a lockdown group either.

I also have to bite on those +625 odds for Suzuki to hit a home run in this game. Since he is also my home run call of the day, I won’t babble on repeating everything I wrote up above explaining why he sets up as a solid bet to go yard. But if you skipped over the HR call write-up or if you're seeing this on Twitter, just know the chances look promising. This is a double-dip bet with the "Suzuki OVER 0.5 runs" as well -- if Suzuki homers, there’s no need to worry about what the guys behind him in the order do and we’re cashing both of these prop tickets with one swing of the bat! Make it happen Seiya!

Cubs -1.5 (+130) + Mariners ML (-131) Parlay | +288 | 1.5 Units

I’m not backing him with a truckload of confidence, but I do believe Mark Leiter Jr. can pitch four or five solid innings today against a Pirates team that is only averaging 2.67 runs/gm on the road this season. After Leiter's day is done, a solid Cubs bullpen with a 3.25 xFIP can eat up the remaining innings all while their bats do work against Bryse Wilson and the Pirates relievers. I’m feeling a 2+ run Cubs margin of victory at Wrigley today.

The Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 overall. In a pitcher-friendly environment like T-Mobile Park, these games can often come down to who has the better starter on the mound. It’ll be a battle between a pair of lefties today and the edge should go to veteran Marco Gonzales at home over the more inexperienced Taylor Hearn. The Seattle bullpen has also been one of the best units in the league (2.95 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP) while the Rangers bullpen has been a bottom 10 group (4.01 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP).

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!